Chapter 569 “Current from the brink”

There was a famous poet Ouyang Xiu in the Song Dynasty. He wrote such an argumentative essay called Theory of Clique. This is what he understood about clique:

The remarks about cronies have been around since ancient times. I just hope that the monarch can distinguish whether they are gentlemen or villains.

Presumably, gentlemen form cliques because they have the same interests, while villains form cliques because they have the same interests. This is a natural law. But I think: villains do not have cliques, only gentlemen do. What is the reason for this?

What villains love and covet is salary and money. When they have the same interests, it is false to temporarily collude with each other and become friends; when they see the benefits and rush to each other, or when the benefits are exhausted and the friendship becomes indifferent, they will

In turn, they harm each other, even if they are brothers and relatives, they will not protect each other. Therefore, it is false to say that villains have no cliques and they temporarily form cliques. Gentlemen are not like this: they adhere to morality and perform loyalty.

What you cherish is honor and integrity. Use these to improve your own cultivation, then you can complement each other if you have the same interests. Use these to do things for the country, then you can make common progress with the same views. Being consistent is the friend of a gentleman. So be a monarch.

, As long as we can repel the false cliques of villains and use the true cliques of gentlemen, then the world will be peaceful.

It was difficult for Pomona to describe in words what it was like for Severus, who was not good at talking, to have a good conversation with someone. This was different from Quirrell's flattery and constant flattery, but everyone was discussing the world in a decent manner.

The situation looks like everyone is knowledgeable.

London is not only a financial city, but also a political center. Chang'an a thousand years ago, BJ a thousand years later, Washington two hundred years later, New York two hundred years later. Men are like this. They like to discuss "big things in the world" and don't seem to talk about this.

The topic makes it appear that my experience is shallow.

They look very much like "friends", and "cronies" are the most well-informed. There is a lot of "inside information" that has begun to spread to the upper levels. After every election, the average price of real estate rises as a rule, because the people will have more confidence in themselves.

The elected political parties are confident and optimistic about the economic prospects.

Various measures and reforms will be implemented as part of the "three things a new official takes office", but it is unclear how long this situation will last.

Compared with the speculative market in the United States, British real estate fluctuates very little and has always followed a steady path. The increase or decrease is only a few percentage points. The United States often experiences cliff-like declines during several crises. However, the price of food in the United Kingdom fluctuates greatly. This is not only

This is not only because the UK does not use the "always closing position" system like the US, but also because "capital is the highest power in the UK".

The separation of powers is as dazzling as the sun. Britain is a cabinet system. Parliament has the "right to overturn the cabinet" and the cabinet also has the "power to dissolve Parliament." The cabinet is supervised by the parliament. If the parliament does not trust the cabinet, it can overthrow the cabinet. 1815

The Corn Laws were enforced from 1846 to "protect" British farmers and landowners from competition from imported cereals from foreign countries with lower production costs. It stipulated that the average price of domestically produced cereals must reach or exceed a certain limit.

The purpose of importing was to safeguard the interests of the landed aristocracy. Before the parliamentary reform, the Tories of the landed aristocracy controlled the election of members of parliament. Even after the parliamentary reform in 1832 when the bourgeois Whigs formed a cabinet, the Corn Laws were still not abolished, and the capitalists

It only weakened the conservative forces of the aristocracy in a peaceful way. In that era, "agriculture was the source of all wealth", which was inconsistent with the fact that capital was the highest power later.

The Chinese thought that the isolation of the country caused the failure of the Opium War. In fact, the isolation of the country was conducive to trade protection from a certain perspective, and it also made the British ignorant of China's situation.

According to relevant British laws, all bills passed by Parliament will be recorded on parchment scrolls and handed over to the Parliamentary Archives for permanent storage.

"Starting from April 7, 1840, the House of Commons of the British Parliament... passed the cabinet's proposal with a slim majority of 271 votes to 262 after three days of debate." This is China's mainstream statement about the outbreak of the Sino-British Opium War in 1840.

The view is that it was the British Parliament that decided the outbreak of the war. However, the original records of the British Parliament deny this statement.

On April 9, 1840, the British Parliament passed a motion to launch the Opium War against China by a vote of 271 to 262. There was no trace of it. It was replaced by a motion of no confidence in the British government that was rejected by a vote of 271 to 262.

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According to the minutes of the meeting, on April 7, 1840, the opposition Tories in Parliament filed a motion of no confidence in the British government due to the many diplomatic mistakes of the Whig and then British Foreign Secretary Henry Temple. The Tories

Accused Palmerston of lacking foresight and poor thinking in China policy, failing to give the then British Commercial Supervisor in China appropriate instructions or available powers, and failing to control the illegal opium trade. Tory MPs distrusted

William Gladstone, the initiator of the case, pointed out during the debate that one-sixth of the fiscal revenue of Britain and India depended on trade with China, so China was very important. He suggested that Britain knew too little about China and was only based on its knowledge of a port.

"Isn't it wiser to trade with such a people than to quarrel with them?"

The entire debate lasted three days, but before this parliamentary debate, the cabinet had ordered the Indian fleet to reinforce China and organize the Eastern Expeditionary Force. During the parliamentary debate, the Yilu fleet was already on its way to China. The British Parliament did not wait until the war broke out

The military appropriation for the Chinese Expeditionary Force was only passed on July 27, 1840. Before the parliament approved the appropriation, the one who paid the military expenses for the expeditionary force was the India and China Association. This association has 109 members with close ties to India and China.

Large companies with interests include giants from all walks of life such as import and export trade, shipping, and finance. The chairman of the association is Rabend, a Whig member of the House of Commons. This association often maintains contact with relevant ministries, especially the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, providing intelligence and inciting war.

When the news that Lin Zexu ordered foreign businessmen to pay cigarettes reached London, the British "bourgeoisie" started a clamor for war. The landowners headed by the Tories did not support the war.

This was not because they were peace-loving, but because they wanted to tear down the Whigs. William Lamb resigned in August 1841 and was replaced by Robert Peel, who reformed Britain's criminal law while serving as Home Secretary.

London's first well-trained police force was formed, and these police officers were nicknamed "Bobby".

After the reform law was passed in 1832, the conservatives suffered a big blow in the subsequent general elections. Although Peel himself won, his Conservative Party only had more than 100 MPs.

The young Whigs were flexible, extreme, and full of adventurism. The UK had been very turbulent in recent years. Perhaps too many reforms had been carried out in too short a period of time. One or even two prime ministers were changed almost every year. In short,

William IV decided to slow down the pace of reforms, Peel imposed income tax, reorganized the Bank of England, and launched reforms in Ireland. These were all fine, but when the Irish famine broke out, his support for lowering import tariffs and repealing the Corn Laws led to the collapse of his cabinet.

According to game theory, parties that are center-left or center-right have a high chance of winning the election. However, when "extreme circumstances" occur, the centrists' chances of winning are not so high.

For example, a straight man likes military uniforms, cannot accept androgynous clothing, and rejects homosexuality. It doesn't matter to him when he is alone, but when they form a group, they will laugh at those boys who are too gentle, Hufflepuff

Boys are often bullied by the bad boys of Slytherin. In order not to be bullied, they will appear "manly" and reject homosexuality.

The late blight that broke out in Ireland in 1845 frustrated Peel's efforts to alleviate the Irish problem. Ireland's potato harvest failed, leaving residents without staple food. About 3 million poor people who originally relied on potatoes for their livelihood needed cheap food imports. Peel used food imports

Richard Cobden also called for the abolition of the tax on grain imports on the grounds that it would unhelpfully increase grain imports to solve Ireland's crisis.

In 1846 Peel submitted three bills to Parliament. The first bill envisaged the complete abolition of taxes on grain imports after three years. The second bill was to reduce all tariffs. The third bill was a mandatory measure to protect Irish property and life.

The first two bills were passed, and the third was opposed by a coalition of tax protectors, extremists, Whigs and Irishmen.

In Peel's view, politics is essentially about the exercise of morality, a fact that makes him different from Wellington, Melburn and Palmerston.

Extreme individualism is the thought and behavior of adopting extreme means at all consequences in order to achieve certain goals of an individual or a small group of people.

People are selfish, but extreme individualism is absolutely useless.

After the Irish Famine, there was a financial panic, and grain purchases from Russia and the United States caused a massive outflow of gold. As a result, there was a wave of runs on bank deposits in 1847.

Lord John, the Prime Minister who succeeded Peel, knew nothing about finance. He and Prince Albert found Peel, who explained the role of the Banking Act to them both. At this time, the Chartist movement reached its peak, and a rally was held at Kensington Common in London.

Huge demonstrations. At this critical moment, Home Secretary Sir George Gray was calm. Wellington promised to give the Chartists ample opportunity to escape. The authorities recruited 170,000 policemen and the army remained loyal to the government.

Before the Second Opium War, the situation in Britain was already very bad. Waging war abroad could divert internal conflicts. The two wars were twenty years apart. At that time, the Manchu Qing Dynasty was slow and dull, like a man awakening from a big dream.

There is no effective response strategy, and the British government's response is also very slow. If you want to build a hospital, it may take 7 years for the decision-making process to be approved. However, the young bourgeoisie is not only flexible but also understands the situation in the Qing Dynasty, just like the overseas Chinese today.

And gangs, they have penetrated into all walks of life in Britain and the United States, whether they are gangsters or white gangs, the whole world knows that Chinese people can do business and are very rich. In this country where capital is the highest power, who will ignore the opinions of the Chinese?

Infighting exists in every country. Japan's economic collapse in the 1990s was related to the infighting between the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan. This is what the men eating with Pomona are talking about now.

Mie Noyasu wanted to reform the domestic economy, but was blocked by conservatives.

The Ministry of Finance was the central government financial agency that existed in Japan from the Meiji Restoration until 2000. The "advanced ideas" of the Meiji Restoration period were very outdated in the 20th century. Officials in the Ministry of Finance thought that they could control the economy by controlling interest rates.

The "yen princes" of the Bank of Japan want to stand on their own and no longer be under the jurisdiction of the Ministry of Finance, but that is not so easy to do.

Regardless of whether Japan actively agreed to increase the exchange rate or the Americans forced the Plaza Accord, it was an out-and-out traitorous act. It harmed domestic export-trade companies. In the past, those who shouted "respect the king and reject the barbarians" dared to carry out assassinations in Kyoto.

There are no more reformers, and all that remains are a bunch of obedient bureaucrats.

After the real estate bubble burst, the Ministry of Finance once planned to save the domestic economy by adjusting the exchange rate, that is, devaluing the yen. However, by that time the yen had already been internationalized. Britain and the United States would not sit back and watch Japan's economic rise again. China also took advantage of this moment.

To avenge the Japanese yen, the market quickly digested the amount of yen it sold. Not only did the Ministry of Finance not let the yen depreciate, it even allowed the yen to appreciate. This was even more unfavorable to the domestic economy. That "sniper war"

There was "full assistance" from the Chinese businessmen in London.

It is far from enough to stir up billions of dollars in the foreign exchange market, but when accumulated, even a drop of water will become a vast ocean.

The competition between the Bank of Japan and the Ministry of Finance ended with the Central Bank winning. The Ministry of Finance was eventually dissolved and the Central Bank gained independence. However, after experiencing great ups and downs, ordinary Japanese can no longer bear such large risks and no longer consume and borrow easily.

Invested.

No matter how the Japanese government tries to stimulate consumption in the future, adjusting interest rates will have no effect. After all, everyone has to save money for their old age. But sometimes you can still find bundles of cash in the trash can, which were saved by the elderly.

But he died alone in the house, and his body was discovered a few weeks later after it stinked. The people who came to collect the body had no idea how much money was hidden in his belongings, so they just disposed of it as garbage.

When Mie Noyasu competed with the Japanese government, he didn't care at all about what ordinary civilians thought. He finally achieved his personal goals, but at the expense of the interests of ordinary people.

When he took office, he raised interest rates and deliberately left the public with the impression that the bubble was caused by long-term low interest rates. The bubble caused inequality between rich and poor, which gained him support from public opinion.

The Ministry of Finance raised interest rates twice before he took office. Raising interest rates again would be simply suicide, so the Ministry of Finance restricted window guidance, especially real estate loans, and began to collect real estate taxes. This accelerated the bursting of the bubble, and there was no such thing as real estate.

In 1991, the growth rate of Japan's currency fell off a cliff, and all the money lent by banks became bad debts that could not be recovered. The Japanese people went from being accustomed to spending lavishly to being frugal in an instant. This gap is real

It's too big, and many people can't bear it. The suicide rate has increased, and a large number of young and middle-aged people have died.

This group of people is the "engine" of Japan's economy. Without them, Japan will have to rely on the elderly and children to drive domestic demand. However, children have become "Heisei waste" and the elderly have no strength.

If multiple people repay bad debts together, then it will be less difficult to repay them. There are more bad debts and a small population, so it will be more difficult to repay them. Interest rates are just the cost of using money. Without loans, everything is in vain. Mie Yeyasu followed the order of the Ministry of Finance to reduce interest rates.

However, the right to issue base currency is still in the hands of the central bank. When a crisis occurs, it is often accompanied by deflation, and even banks run out of money. This will cause a series of domino effects. The solution at this time is quantitative easing, through the purchase of government bonds, etc.

Medium and long-term bonds increase the base money supply and inject a large amount of liquidity into the market.

But Mie Noyasu didn't do that.

Structural reforms may cause temporary deflation, but they can later lead to a more efficient economy.

Of course the central bank can print money, but if it does so, no one will have the motivation to reform. The Japanese people's character of killing people if they don't succeed is really unbearable. The Ministry of Finance has lowered interest rates to save the market because it has no money to borrow.

The smoke disappeared and the people lost trust in the Ministry of Finance. In the mid-to-late 1990s, bribery scandals in the Ministry of Finance often broke out in the media. The Ministry of Finance became an outlet for people's emotions. As a result, the central bank put forward the requirement for "independence".

In a passive situation, the Ministry of Finance had no choice but to submit, and it was dismantled in 2000.

In other words, it is a fight between gods and fish in the pond, while ordinary people have done nothing but become a stepping stone for some people to reach the top.

Pomona could understand what they were saying, but she really didn't want to participate in their conversation and just ate her food.

Compared with capitalist society, New China is a workers' party, and capital is not the highest power.

During this demonstration in London's Chinatown, people from the embassy still expressed support: If the British government and real estate developers put forward unreasonable conditions for overseas Chinese, then Britain will lose part of its trade.
To be continued...