During the two days on the weekend, Li Xuyao ​​immersed himself in books. After reading two books by Livermore, he also flipped through a book that uses the relationship between volume and price to analyze handicap. This book can be classified into the category of technical analysis.
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Li Xuyao ​​has read less books on technical analysis, and has focused more on studying theory or "mental methods".

In Li Xuyao's view, technical analysis is a relatively basic method. To say it is basic does not mean that the "level" or "style" is not enough, but that technical analysis is a basic stage that most investors have to go through.

Many A-share investors started with technical analysis. K-line, average price line, 5-day, 10-day line, MACD, KDJ, golden cross, dead cross, trend line, etc., these are all technical analysis.

category.

It’s just that many people have stopped here and have not been exposed to other fundamental analysis, industry analysis, macroeconomics, etc. Perhaps it is also because these involve professional fields and are not as easy to understand as technical analysis, and it is quite difficult to learn.

Hard work.

In fact, no matter which method you use, you don’t need to do it to the extreme, you just need to do it at a very high level, and you can still make money in the stock market.

Of course, if you want to survive in the stock market for a long time, just one method is not enough.

Li Xuyao ​​himself also formed his current model after experiencing several twists and turns.

I can’t say that I have mastered several methods, but I can at least understand a little bit.

There are also several schools of thought circulating in the stock market, such as information flow, capital flow, board-breaking flow, technology flow, value flow, growth flow, macro flow, etc.

Li Xuyao ​​can’t easily define what genre he belongs to. Maybe it’s “stream of consciousness” or “emotional flow”?

When I started learning subconsciously, I experienced technology flow, information flow, and capital flow.

In the early days, it was pure technical analysis. It looked like macro and fundamental analysis, so I didn’t bother to look at it. It was more efficient to look at pictures.

There was a period of time in the stock market, as long as the stocks involving the words "high transfer" and "reorganization" were involved, their prices soared. At that time, Li Xuyao ​​began to learn information flow, or "event-driven". He was still frustrated.

My whole body is bruised and bruised, and I don’t want to lose money.

One day later, I suddenly realized that no matter whether the stock is bought or sold, it is reflected in funds, so I thought about the "capital flow" for a period of time. During that time, I stared at the Dragon and Tiger List all day long to study. At that time,

I just came into contact with the concept of hot money.

Of course, learning about capital flow seems to be ineffective, and the pace can never keep up.

I bought it too early and shipped it before the price rose.

If you buy late, you will miss the main trend, and you will have to drink some soup at most.

Selling too early is also called selling out, and you miss out on the big rise later.

If you sell it late, you just "spit it out after you eat it".

Li Xuyao ​​later gradually gave up on this "capital flow". After all, his own funds were pitifully small.

One day, there will be a slap on the thigh. How can it be driven by events or funds? Aren’t there people behind the scenes?

Transactions in the stock market are a series of actions taken by countless traders after thinking.

This is called "people-oriented".

I saw a sentence in a certain book, which probably means: the benefits gained from studying human nature are far greater than studying the stock market itself.

Human nature is very complex, and Li Xuyao ​​cannot understand it through research.

The stock market is very complicated, and Li Xuyao ​​is confused most of the time.

Human nature is vividly demonstrated in the stock market, especially the weaknesses of human nature.

In the stock market, whether they are investors or speculators, their psychological activities are manifested in various emotions. The two most mentioned emotions are "fear" and "greed".

People are very greedy, or in other words, people's desires are endless. Sitting on the ground, you want to go to heaven, and becoming an emperor, you want to ascend to immortality.

Greed drives investors to pursue every penny of profit. Sometimes in order to earn a little more, they are unwilling to accept the good news, and in the end they are happy in vain.

Some people use leverage to make more money, but in the end they just "die" faster.

Fear is another emotion that can make people involuntarily. Because they feel fear, they will not hesitate to sell the stocks in their hands. It seems that their hands will be burned after a moment. Then they can’t wait to stay away from the stock market.

Pump-and-dump may be the method that exploits human greed the most, while washing the market may be the method that exploits people’s fear the most.

Buffett also has a famous saying: "Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful." Perhaps this is the essence of contrarian investing.

When market sentiment reaches a boiling point, everyone begins to revel in greed. Investors who have experienced the two bull markets in 2008 and 2015 may still have the impression that at that time, brokers had to queue up to open an account, and the aunts who had always only cared about the price of vegetables and meat.

I started to care about the stock price.

Then, the carnival is about to come to an abrupt end.

These two bull markets also started quietly after the market sentiment reached a freezing point. At that time, if you tried to persuade someone to open an account to trade stocks or buy a fund, you couldn't hide the look in his eyes that wanted to "cut him off".

Of course, there is also a widely circulated saying: "Be more greedy when others are greedy, and be more fearful when others are fearful."

Li Xuyao ​​did not verify the original source, but when he saw it for the first time, he was named "stock trading to support the family", a legendary hot money boss in the A-share market.

There are various "mental methods" circulating on many forums, and Li Xuyao ​​has also studied and figured them out one by one, and he has gained something.

Some people attribute "emotion" to the highest state of stock trading.

The first thing is to control your emotions, overcome your fear and greed, and avoid being happy or sad.

Then feel the emotions of individual stocks, feel the strength of both long and short parties, and feel the strength of individual stocks during the game.

Finally, feel the emotion of the entire market, the emotions of all participants gathered together, and see whether the emotion is normal temperature, "freezing point" or "boiling point".

But it is probably more difficult to grasp emotions than to predict the trend of the stock market in two days.

Human beings are animals with feelings. When we have feelings, we will naturally have emotions. And emotions are bound to fluctuate, how to control them?

Even a person who has been calm for a long time will feel turbulent when encountering specific things at a specific moment.

Who can have no emotions?

Robots, or machines made by humans, have been programmed. They have no emotional appeal and no need for emotions. They only need to execute the instructions of the program.

This is why "quantification" is the future trend,

2021 is known as the first year of the big A story quantitative funds. In this year, many quantitative funds have been in the limelight for a while, with their scale increasing dramatically and their performance exploding.

Almost every day, several stocks on the Dragon and Tiger List will have seats for Huaxin SH Branch and CICC SH Branch. These two are the bases of quantitative trading.

In 2021, among tens of billions of funds, the average return of quantitative funds is 19.24%, outperforming other strategies by 9.96%, and the return is almost twice that of other strategies.

Therefore, at the beginning of 2022, there was news that a certain quantitative fund manager had a year-end bonus of 50 million, which was also confirmed.

But as early as 2022, quantitative funds are no longer in the spotlight, and their performance is unsatisfactory.

I don’t know whether the market has achieved quantification in 2021, or the quantification has achieved the market?
Chapter completed!