Chapter 25 A small profit
As the days pass by, Zeng Lingfeng has been paying attention to the development of the "Galaxy Incident".
Originally, Zeng Lingfeng thought that the result would change with the memory, but as time went by, Zeng Lingfeng's heart was full of disappointment. Under the huge inertia of the wheel of history, the development of the "Galaxy Incident" was exactly the same as the trajectory in memory.
At 1:00 p.m. on September 4, 1993, after the verification results of the Chinese Galaxy freighter were announced in the Daman Port in Saudi Arabia in the Persian Gulf, Chinese representative Sha Zukang issued two telecommunications from Daman within a few minutes, "The Central Saudi representative and US consultant signed an inspection report - The Galaxy did not carry sulfodidyl glycol and thionyl chloride" and "The head of the Chinese inspection team issued a statement - The Galaxy is innocent and innocent".
Zeng Lingfeng was very dissatisfied with this result. The Americans wanted to check the containers shipped to Iran, so they asked to check it. When they arrived in Iran, they saw that there was no chemical weapons. The Americans then wanted to check the containers in Tianjin and Shanghai, but they still allowed them to check it. Then the Americans became anxious and said they wanted to check all the containers, but they still checked it. After all, they finally returned their innocence. The Americans left without apologizing, not compensating, not admitting their mistakes, and threatened that they would check it again next time there was something similar. Galaxy for this.
The loss of more than 10 million US dollars, the United States did not even have a sorry, and the Chinese people paid the bill. Afterwards, it was said that it was a shameful person to lose the United States. Since China is innocent, people will make people lose their losses in vain. This is called a shameful person? A big girl went out to the street to say that you are a chicken and you have to have a physical examination on the street. Taking off the coat is not considered stripping underwear, and removing the coat is not considered a mirror. Then he said that you are the one who is right, clapping his hands and leaving. This is called losing the face of a hooligan? This is called a big girl being polite and righteous?
However, Zeng Lingfeng still understood the embarrassing situation in China at this time. After all, China's comprehensive national strength was too far behind the United States. The Americans clearly wanted to bully you and make you lose face. You could only accept it with your nose. After all, you could not start a war with the United States for this matter, and you could only calm down. In the end, there was no way, you could only adopt the attitude of Ah Q to deal with the world, achieve a spiritual victory, and seek peace of mind.
However, Zeng Lingfeng believes that such an incident will be remembered by truly bloody Chinese people at any time. Once they have the opportunity, they will naturally have to find it back with capital and interest.
Zeng Lingfeng thought that this matter should sound a wake-up call for domestic senior management, that is, while developing the economy, you cannot give up military development. If a country wants to truly become a big country and a strong country, it must not only have strong economic strength, but also have strong military strength. Economy and military are the two legs of a strong country. None of them has defects can become a real strong country.
However, Zeng Lingfeng didn't know what the situation was, and he couldn't contact Mr. Deng at this time to ask about these things. If he really contacted Mr. Deng at this time, he would have been an indirect spy.
While paying attention to the development of the Galaxy Incident, Zeng Lingfeng did not let go of anything else. Without everyone's knowledge, Zeng Lingfeng completed another major layout, hyping up the Mexican peso.
Zeng Lingfeng did not cooperate with Soros this time because he really knew that Soros was destined to fail in this incident. If he cooperated with him, he would be unable to get along with himself. However, in order to maintain the good cooperative relationship between the two, Zeng Lingfeng's action was absolutely confidential, from beginning to end, without any fake hands. In order not to cause obvious changes in the Mexican peso, Zeng Lingfeng was even more careful, and the entire entry time was as long as one and a half years. He started in mid-1993 and it was not until the end of November 1994, less than a month before the outbreak of the Mexican financial crisis, that Zeng Lingfeng completed the last step of the layout.
Zeng Lingfeng's smooth layout was also due to the rapid opening of the Mexican financial market and extremely imperfect, and his dependence on foreign capital was extremely high. Through financial opening and encouragement of foreign capital inflows, the inflow of foreign capital reached US$25 billion to US$35 billion from 1992 to 1994. However, foreign trade exports did not increase significantly, and the proportion of foreign trade imports in GDP increased from 9.4% in 1987 to 31% in 1993. As a result, the deficit of the current account of the balance of payments hovered at a high level of US$23 billion, making the entire Mexican economy overly dependent on foreign capital.
The entry of more than US$100 billion in foreign capital in three years was the best cover for Zeng Lingfeng's actions. After finishing the preparations, Zeng Lingfeng began to wait for the arrival of time.
The wheel of history is rolling forward, and the political changes in Mexico are also staged like Zeng Lingfeng’s memory.
In the second half of 1994, Mexico's political situation began to be turbulent, with armed peasant uprisings one after another. The presidential candidate of the ruling Revolutionary Institutional Party, Colocio and General Secretary Ruiz were assassinated one after another. The power struggle within the ruling party and between the ruling party and the opposition party was very fierce.
Political instability has hit the confidence of foreign investors. Foreign investment entering Mexico began to decrease, and divestment increased. Mexico had to use foreign exchange reserves to fill the huge foreign trade deficit, causing foreign exchange reserves to drop from US$17 billion at the end of October 1994 to US$6 billion on December 21, a 65% drop in less than two months. At this point, a big storm finally completed its brewing.
After Salinas came to power, the government used the exchange rate as a tool for anti-inflation (i.e. peg the peso to the US dollar). Although the anti-inflation plan with exchange rate pinning as the core is relatively successful in reducing the inflation rate, since the depreciation of the domestic currency is less than the increase in the inflation rate, it is inevitable that the currency value will be overvalued, which will weaken the international competitiveness of the domestic products.
It is estimated that if calculated using purchasing power parity, the value of the peso is overestimated by 20%. In addition, such anti-inflation schemes have generated consumption heat and expanded the demand for imported goods. While imports have increased sharply, Mexico's exports have grown weakly. From 1989 to 1994, exports increased by 2.7 times, while imports have increased by 3.4 times. As a result, in 1989, Mexico's current account deficit was US$4.1 billion, and in 1994 it has expanded to US$28.9 billion.
Theoretically speaking, as long as the capital account can maintain a corresponding surplus in the balance of payments, even if the current account has a large deficit, it does not mean that the national economy is facing a crisis. The key to the problem is that foreign capital that keeps the capital account surplus should not be a relatively speculative short-term foreign capital. However, this kind of capital account surplus used by Mexico to make up for the current account deficit is this kind of capital.
In the late 1980s, the net indirect investment inflows into Mexico was about US$5 billion each year, and by 1993, the net inflow of this foreign capital had been nearly US$30 billion. It is estimated that between 1990 and 1994, the proportion of indirect investment in the total foreign capital flowing into Mexico was as high as 2/3.
In order to stabilize the confidence of foreign investors, the Mexican government not only insisted that the peso did not depreciate, but also replaced a peso-linked short-term bond with a short-term bond peso-linked.
As a result, foreign investors sold large quantities of short-term bonds linked to peso and purchased short-term bonds linked to the US dollar. On the eve of the financial crisis, the Mexican government issued short-term bonds up to US$30 billion, of which 16.76 billion were due in the first half of 1995, while foreign exchange reserves were only billions.
Facts show that it is unwise for the Mexican government to use short-term bonds pegged to the US dollar to stabilize foreign investors' confidence. Although this bond achieved its goal in a short period of time, leaving more than 20 billion US dollars of short-term foreign capital in China, the risk is greater, because the decline in the value of peso, regardless of its amplitude, will reduce the profits of indirect investment, thereby aggravating capital outflows and causing the short-term bond market to face greater turmoil. Therefore, by the second half of 1994, the Mexican government was in an increasingly passive situation.
Late at night on December 19, 1994, the Mexican government suddenly announced that the country's currency peso depreciated by 15%. This decision caused great panic in the market. Foreign investors frantically sold peso and snatched the US dollar, and the peso exchange rate fell sharply. On December 20, the exchange rate fell from the initial 3.47 peso to l US dollar to 3.925 peso to l US dollar, falling 13%. It fell another 15.3% on the 21st. With the depreciation of peso, foreign investors withdrew a large amount of funds, and Mexico's foreign exchange reserves plummeted by nearly 4 billion US dollars in two days from the 20th to the 21st. The entire financial market in Mexico was in chaos. From the 20th to the 22nd, in just three days, the exchange rate of Mexican peso to the US dollar plummeted by 42.17%, which is extremely rare in modern financial history.
About 70% of the foreign capital absorbed by Mexico is speculative short-term securities investment. Capital outflows are like cutting off the bottom of the pot for the Mexican stock market, and the Mexican stock market fell in response. On December 30, the Mexican IPC index fell 6.26%. On January 10, 1995, it fell 11%. By March 3, the Mexican stock market IPC index had fallen to 1,500 points, a cumulative decline of 2,881.17 points before the 1994 financial crisis, and the decline in the stock market exceeded the depreciation of the peso.
In early March 1993, international speculators such as Soros were still fighting in the Mexican market. Zeng Lingfeng, who made a lot of money, took advantage of the chaos in the Mexican financial market and evacuated silently and safely.
Zeng Lingfeng just withdrew from the Mexican financial market, and international financial institutions such as the United States and the International Monetary Fund took action.
In order to help the Mexican government overcome difficulties and reduce the losses of foreign investors, the US government and the International Monetary Fund and other international financial institutions have decided to provide huge loans to support the Mexican economic rescue plan to stabilize exchange rates, stock markets and investor confidence. Before and after, countries and institutions mainly in the United States have provided international capital assistance up to US$50 billion!
Just when international speculators such as Soros were trapped in the Mexican market, Zeng Lingfeng hid alone in the corner, happily counting the number of zeros behind the amount he earned.
Chapter completed!