Luo Junning had already thought about the topic of his temporary homework in the United States this time, that is, the prediction and evaluation of the US sub-household crisis.

The secondary housing crisis, full name of the secondary housing credit crisis, is clearly reflected in the name, that is, the economic bubble and crisis caused by the imbalance of real estate development in the United States. Of course, the imbalance of real estate development is just a fuse. The deepest reason is the policy orientation of the US government and the basic needs of the American people.

All this has to start from five years ago when the U.S. federal funds rate was cut by 50 basis points. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy began a cycle of changing from interest rate hikes to interest rate cuts. After 13 times of interest rate reductions, by June 2003, the federal funds rate fell to 1%, reaching the lowest level in the past 46 years. Such a loose monetary environment also reflects the real estate market. Mortgage interest rates fell in the same period. The fixed mortgage loan interest rate for 30 years fell from 8.1% at the end of 2000 to 5.8% in 2003, and the one-year interest-adjustable mortgage loan interest rate dropped from 7.0% at the end of 2001 to 3.8% in 2003, which is also an important reason for the continued prosperity of US real estate.

However, from 2004, it was also the first year when Luo Junning went to South Korea to be a high school exchange student, the Federal Reserve's low interest rate policy began to reverse. By June 2005, after Luo Junning underwent the college entrance examination, the United States had raised interest rates 13 times in a row. In 2006, the federal funds rate had increased from 1% to 4.73%. With the firm implementation of such policies, the cost of housing loans has also increased, and it has begun to play the role of expending demand and cooling the market, resulting in a decline in housing prices and a large increase in the risk of mortgage defaults.

In the United States, credit disputes arising from the inability to pay high-value housing goods have also begun to increase. What makes Luo Junning even more funny is that some financial institutions deliberately package high-risk mortgage loans into securitization products to sell these problematic mortgage loan securities to investors. Isn’t this a typical cheating person?

"The rating market is opaque and the conflict of interest of rating agencies are the main reasons why these serious high-risk assets have entered the investment market smoothly. It seems that the United States is too free, so many problems have occurred." Luo Junning tapped the tabletop with his fingers, and his mind preconstructed the possible situation and economic model in his mind. However, this is obviously not an information work that the human brain with only a single digit percentage can complete for a while, so he pressed these in his heart and stretched his mind, "Forget it, take it slowly. Anyway, this is the United States' business, and it is just a topic for me. I think that the so-called free federation of the United States, and the existence of national policies is determined by capital, should have discovered bad signs and started to deal with it. It should not be an interlocking economic crisis, right?"

Out of trust in the US economy, Luo Junning did not take this topic too important, but treated it as a normal homework.

In the evening, Luo Junning went to Chen Fan's house and met his sister-in-law whom he hadn't seen for a long time. This gentle sister-in-law in the Jiangnan water town made him very moved. He was much happier when getting along with him than Tang Han's sister. Of course, if he had to choose, he felt that it would be better for both women to be his sisters, and he did the same. The only regret was that he did not see the daughter of Chen Fan's family, the quirky little girl, should be over 5 years old this year.

In the next few days, Luo Junning was familiar with the operation of the company during working hours and gradually participated in Chen Fan's work process. However, he existed more as an observer and did not use his own identity to influence Chen Fan's decision-making. After several negotiations with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and interest exchange negotiations, Luo Junning absorbed relevant knowledge in this area like a sponge. It was not that he suddenly became concerned about family affairs, but he just felt that this seemed to be used for unlimited work. After all, he often deals with mbc executives of one of the three major TV stations. In the future, maybe he would have to exchange interests with the senior executives of KBS and SBS. Now it is always good to learn more knowledge in this area to avoid being frigid in the future. After all, the senior executives of these three TV stations in South Korea will not have more economical minds than those of professional world-class companies like Google, right?

Chen Fan was very satisfied with Luo Junning's performance during this period, and privately told Tang Han about Luo Junning's performance here. In his opinion, Luo Junning may not be a qualified executor, but he already has the foundation that a qualified controller should have.

In his free time, Luo Junning actively completed the selected topic. After determining the target topic, he dragged Chen Fan to collect information on mortgage and related policies of the Federal Reserve League, quickly completed a series of analysis and estimates, and boldly made assumptions and speculations. At the end, several possible situations were also given. The worst case was of course the large-scale economic crisis that was most likely to occur in his simulation.

"A large-scale economic crisis caused by the subprime housing credit crisis?" Looking at this paper, Chen Fan was silent, but his eyes were shining with a strange light.

Luo Junning laughed and said, "This is the worst plan. If the US government does not adjust the current policies and improve the rating system soon, this may really happen, but the possibility is not very high. After all, it is the United States. Although it does not have a special favoritism for this country, it is the strongest country in the world after all."

The strongest?

Chen Fan shook his head and smiled, "This paper is good, don't you mind I'll copy one?"

"It's okay, as long as Brother Chen, you don't belong to your name after the paper and publish it." Luo Junning said indifferently.

"You kid, am I the kind of person who robs people of the results?" Chen Fan smiled and cursed. After copying the paper, he sent it directly back to the country and sent it to Luo Junning's father. Soon he also received a call from Luo Zesheng, asking about the possibility expected in this paper. In the end, a plan to deal with this possible economic crisis and how to achieve the greatest benefit in this possible economic crisis has begun to have a draft chapter, and a dedicated person will start to improve it.

After hanging up the phone, Chen Fan looked at the paper in front of him and thought silently: Jun Ning's eyes are keen, but it is still a bit too idealistic. The United States is very strong, yes, but the strongest point is the weakest point. There are too many powerful economies in the United States. Therefore, this large-scale economic crisis with the least expected possibility will be greatly increased in the mutual struggle between powerful economies such as the United States. This is an opportunity, which is Zelu's opportunity to expand herself and truly enter the US market.
Chapter completed!