When Luo Xiang heard Zhao Tian's words, his eyes couldn't help but light up. For people like Luo Xiang who are engaged in finance, an economic crisis is equivalent to an opportunity to make a fortune, so they are extremely interested in these things.

"Xiaotian, what form do you think the economic crisis will take in the future?"

Seeing Luo Xiang's eager expression, Zhao Tian couldn't help but smile and said

"Brother Luo, don't worry, I will naturally explain everything to you."

At this point, Zhao Tian paused slightly, and relevant fragments of the world economic crisis in 1997 in his previous life passed through his mind one by one, and then he sighed and said [

"In my opinion, this economic crisis will be divided into three stages. The first stage: Since July 2, 1997, Thailand announced that it would abandon the fixed exchange rate system and implement a floating exchange rate system. This heralded a crisis throughout Southeast Asia.

The financial crisis has emerged.

Then around August, due to the economic offensive of these international speculators, some economically weak countries, such as Malaysia, will inevitably give up their efforts to defend the ringgit and other cities that have been seriously affected by the world economic crisis. And the Singapore dollar, which has always been strong, will also

will be impacted. Soon, this great world economic crisis will officially land in the entire Asia, sweeping Southeast Asia, East Asia and even the entire Asia.

In my opinion, the first countries to be affected should be Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Singapore, which are close to the source of the economic crisis. Later, Hong Kong, South Korea, Russia, Japan and other East Asian countries will also be affected by the economic crisis. Of course, for emergency

The European countries next to Russia are unlikely to be unaffected. However, due to the strong economic strength of European countries, it is expected that the impact of this economic crisis will not be too great, and most of it will be concentrated in Asia.

In my opinion, the European, American, and even global economic crisis should occur after 2000, around 0708.

In my opinion, the reasons for the economic crisis sweeping Asia are (1) the impact of hot money on the international financial market. Currently, there are about 7 trillion US dollars of flowing international capital around the world. Once international speculators find out in which country

If a certain country or region is profitable, they will immediately impact the currency of that country or region through speculation in order to obtain huge profits in the short term. (2) Some Asian countries have improper foreign exchange policies. In order to attract foreign investment, they maintain fixed exchange rates on the one hand, and

Expanding financial liberalization provides opportunities for international speculators. For example, before Thailand could straighten out its financial system, it abolished controls on the capital market in 1992, thus smoothing the flow of short-term funds and creating opportunities for foreign speculators to speculate.

The Thai baht provides the conditions. (3) In order to maintain a fixed exchange rate system, these countries use foreign exchange reserves to make up for the deficit for a long time, leading to an increase in foreign debt. (4) The foreign debt structure of these countries is unreasonable. In the case of medium-term and short-term debts,

, once the outflow of foreign capital exceeds the inflow of foreign capital, and the country's foreign exchange reserves are not enough to make up for the shortfall, the country's currency depreciation is inevitable. The internal basic factors include: (1) Overdraft economic growth and the rise of non-performing assets

Expansion. Maintaining a high economic growth rate is the common aspiration of developing countries. When the conditions for rapid growth become insufficient, in order to continue to maintain the speed, these countries turn to borrowing foreign debt to maintain economic growth. However, due to the slowdown in economic development

It did not go well. By the mid-1990s, some Asian countries no longer had the ability to repay their debts. In Southeast Asian countries, the real estate bubble only resulted in bad debts and bad debts from bank loans; as for South Korea, due to the excessive amount of funds that large companies obtained from banks,

It is easy to cause non-performing assets to expand immediately once a company is in poor condition. The large number of non-performing assets, in turn, affects investor confidence. (2) The market system is immature. First, the government intervenes excessively in resource allocation.

, especially loan investments and projects that interfere with the financial system; the other is the imperfection of the financial system, especially the regulatory system. (3) Defects of the "export substitution" model. The "export substitution" model is the economic success of many Asian countries.

Important reasons. However, this model also has three shortcomings: first, when the economy develops to a certain stage, production costs will increase and exports will be suppressed, causing imbalances in the international balance of payments of these countries; second, when this

When the export-oriented strategy becomes the development strategy of many countries, it will cause mutual squeeze between them; thirdly, the step-by-step progress of products is a necessary condition for continuing to implement export substitution. It is impossible to maintain competitiveness only by relying on the cheap advantage of resources.

After achieving rapid growth, these Asian countries have not solved the above problems. World economic factors mainly include: (1) The negative impact of economic globalization. Economic globalization is the increasingly close economic connections around the world, but due to

The negative impacts arising from this cannot be ignored, such as the intensified conflict of interests between nation-states, enhanced capital mobility, and increased difficulty in preventing crises. (2) Unreasonable international division of labor, trade and currency systems have a negative impact on third world countries.

Disadvantage. In the field of production, it is still the developed countries that produce high-tech products and high-tech itself. The technical content of the products gradually decreases towards the less developed countries. The least developed countries can only do assembly work and produce primary products. In exchange

In the field of international finance and currency, the entire global financial system and system are also conducive to financial powers."

When Luo Xiang heard Zhao Tian's analysis, he secretly connected it with the current economic situation of the entire world, and couldn't help but secretly nod his head to admire Zhao Tian's foresight.

When Zhao Tian saw Luo Xiang's expression, he couldn't help but snicker secretly. In his previous life, after the Asian financial crisis broke out in 1997, there were several analyzes of the economic crisis.

I remember that an economic treatise roughly divided the 1997 economic crisis into three stages: June to December 1997; January to July 1998; July 1998 to the end of the year. The first stage: 1997 On July 2, Thailand announced that it would abandon the fixed exchange rate system and implement a floating exchange rate system, triggering a financial turmoil throughout Southeast Asia. On that day, the exchange rate of the Thai baht against the US dollar dropped by 17 percent, and the foreign exchange and other financial markets were in chaos. Affected by the fluctuation of the Thai baht, the Philippine peso, Indonesian rupiah, and Malaysian ringgit have successively become the targets of attacks by international speculators. In August, Malaysia gave up its efforts to defend the ringgit. The Singapore dollar, which has always been strong, was also affected. Although Indonesia The country that was the latest to be "infected", but suffered the most serious impact. In late October, international speculators moved to Hong Kong, the international financial center, and pointed their finger at Hong Kong's linked exchange rate system. The Taiwan authorities suddenly abandoned the exchange rate of the New Taiwan dollar, depreciating 346 (hundred) in one day. semicolon), increasing the pressure on the Hong Kong dollar and the Hong Kong stock market. On October 23, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell sharply; on the 28th, it fell below the 9,000-point mark. Facing the fierce attack of international financial speculators, Hong Kong The SAR government reiterated that it would not change the current exchange rate system, and the Hang Seng Index rose to reach the 10,000-point mark. Then, in mid-November, a financial turmoil broke out in South Korea in East Asia. On the 17th, the exchange rate of the Korean won against the U.S. dollar fell to a record high of 1,008: On January 21, the South Korean government had to seek help from the International Monetary Fund and temporarily controlled the crisis. However, on December 13, the exchange rate of the Korean won against the US dollar dropped to: 1. The Korean won crisis also affected Japanese financial institutions that have a large investment in South Korea. In the second half of 1997, a series of banks and securities companies in Japan went bankrupt one after another. As a result, the Southeast Asian financial turmoil evolved into the Asian financial crisis. The second stage: In early 1998, the Indonesian financial turmoil recurred and faced the most severe economic recession in history. The prescriptions prescribed by the International Monetary Fund for Indonesia failed to achieve the expected results. On February 11, the Indonesian government announced that it would implement a linked exchange rate system with a fixed exchange rate between the Indonesian rupiah and the US dollar to stabilize the Indonesian rupiah. This move was criticized by the International Monetary Fund. Organizations, the United States, and Western Europe unanimously opposed it. The International Monetary Fund threatened to withdraw aid to Indonesia. Indonesia fell into a major political and economic crisis. On February 16, the price of the Indonesian rupiah against the U.S. dollar fell below 10,000:1. Affected by this, the Southeast Asian currency market Once again, the Singapore dollar, Malaysian ringgit, Thai baht, Philippine peso, etc. fell one after another. It was not until Indonesia and the International Monetary Fund reached an agreement on a new economic reform plan on April 8 that the Southeast Asian currency market temporarily calmed down. The 1997 outbreak of the The Southeast Asian financial crisis put the Japanese economy, which was closely related to it, into trouble. The Japanese yen exchange rate fell from 115 yen to 1 U.S. dollar at the end of June 1997 to 133 yen to 1 U.S. dollar in early April 1998; in May and June, Japan The exchange rate of the yen has been falling, and was once close to the mark of 150 yen per US dollar. With the sharp depreciation of the yen, the international financial situation became more uncertain, and the Asian financial crisis continued to deepen. The third stage: In early August 1998, taking advantage of the turmoil in the U.S. stock market , as the yen exchange rate continued to fall, international speculators launched a new round of attack on Hong Kong. The Hang Seng Index fell to more than 6,600 points. The Hong Kong SAR government responded by using the Exchange Fund to enter the stock market and futures market to attract international speculators to sell. The Hong Kong dollar stabilized the foreign exchange market at the level of 775 Hong Kong dollars to 1 U.S. dollar. After nearly a month of hard work, which caused heavy losses to international speculators, France once again realized its attempt to use Hong Kong as a "super cash machine." International speculators failed in Hong Kong At the same time, it suffered a disastrous defeat in Russia. On August 17, the Russian Central Bank announced that it would expand the floating range of the ruble to US dollar exchange rate to 60-95:1 during the year, delay the repayment of foreign debts, and suspend the trading of government bonds. On September 2, the ruble depreciation of 70 (percent). This caused the Russian stock market and foreign exchange market to plummet, triggering a financial crisis and even an economic and political crisis. The sudden change in Russia's policy devastated international speculators who had invested huge sums of money in the Russian stock market, and led to a decline in the U.S. stock market. European stock markets and foreign exchange markets experienced comprehensive and violent fluctuations. If the Asian financial crisis was still regional before this, then the outbreak of the Russian financial crisis shows that the Asian financial crisis has gone beyond the regional scope and has global significance. By the end of 1998, the Russian economy was still not out of trouble. In 1999, the financial crisis ended.

Zhao Tian has always remembered these things deeply in his mind. Now it is easy to use them to fool people like Luo Xiang who do not know the future development.

Just when Zhao Tian was secretly proud of his performance, Luo Xiang, who was opposite him, finally came to his senses from his deep thoughts. Then he saw Luo Xiang looking at Zhao Tian with excitement on his face, and said

"Xiaotian, I really didn't expect you to have such an economic vision. I have to say that your analysis is very consistent with the current economic situation in the world. However, Xiaotian, although this economic crisis looks terrible, it is
Chapter completed!