Chapter six hundred and sixty-eight thinking
Li Zhongxin took the coffee on the plane, took a few sips slowly, shook his head aside, and began to think about foreign exchange transactions when he went to Tokyo this time.
Li Zhongxin remembers it very clearly that in September 1985, the finance ministers and the central bank president of the United States, Japan, the Federal Republic of Germany and the United Kingdom held a meeting at the Plaza Hotel in New York, reaching a joint intervention in the foreign exchange market by five governments, inducing the orderly depreciation of the US dollar against the exchange rate of major currencies.
After the signing of the Plaza Agreement, the five countries began to jointly intervene in the foreign exchange market, selling the US dollar in large quantities in the international foreign exchange market, forcing the market investors to follow the trend and sell in large quantities, causing the US dollar to continue to depreciate significantly.
In September 1985, the US dollar exchanged for yen fluctuated around 250 yen. Less than three months after the agreement was signed, the US dollar quickly fell to about 200 yen, with a drop of 20%.
After that, U.S. Treasury Secretary Punk and the director of the American Institute of International Economics at that time, those finance officials continued to secretly intervene in the US dollar. At the lowest point, a dollar could only be exchanged for 120 yen, which means that in less than three years, the yen doubled against the US dollar.
Li Zhongxin knew in his heart that Japan expanded very rapidly in the world at that time, and had replaced the United States as the world's largest creditor country. Products made by Japan had expanded to the world. The rapid expansion of Japanese capital in a crazy manner made Americans feel scared. Even countless American economists said that Japan would use economic means to peacefully occupy the United States.
Workers in shoe factories produce shoes not for themselves, but for selling them to others. The TVs produced are not for themselves, but for selling them. Most of the things produced are for exchange. A country’s exports but not imports means that the exchange is not completed, which is a serious imbalance.
What will happen if Japan only exports to the United States and does not import them? That is, no one cares about the US dollar earned by export companies.
The yen circulates in the country, and you have to import American goods to spend it. If you don’t buy American things, you will have no use to ask for US dollars.
Japan exports more, imports less, and even has no imports to the United States. Most Japanese people are unwilling to use the Japanese yen to buy the US dollar, and the US dollar will naturally depreciate and the Japanese yen will naturally appreciate.
What is the reason for this incident? It comes from the United States. Since 1980, there have been two changes in the domestic economy of the United States. First, the foreign trade deficit has expanded year by year.
The second is the emergence of the government budget deficit. Under the shadow of the double deficit, the US government introduced international capital to develop the economy by raising domestic basic interest rates. The large inflow of foreign capital has caused the US dollar to continue to appreciate, and the US export competitiveness has declined, thus expanding to the crisis of the foreign trade deficit.
Under the pressure of this economic crisis, the United States hopes to use the depreciation of the US dollar to strengthen the foreign competitiveness of US products and reduce the trade deficit.
In 1985, this year, Japan replaced the United States as the world's largest creditor country.
Products made in Japan are flooding the world. The crazy expansion of Japanese capital has made Americans exclaim, "Japan will occupy the United States peacefully!"
Many large American manufacturing companies have begun to sit still. They have lobbyed the US government and strongly demanded that the Reagan administration interfere in the foreign exchange market and depreciate the US dollar in order to save the increasingly depressed American manufacturing industry.
Many economists have also joined the lobbying government to change its stance of the strong dollar.
These things are the inducement of the Plaza Agreement, and for these things! Li Zhongxin is all memories of his rebirth. He is not very interested in specific things and specific things. What he is interested in is that because of the Plaza Agreement, he has the opportunity to participate in international foreign exchange transactions.
In three months, the US dollar fell rapidly from one dollar to two hundred yen to about two hundred yen, with a drop of 20%.
This price difference is worth Li Zhongxin's operation.
Li Zhongxin knew in his heart that foreign exchange operations were basically leveraged. In other words, foreign exchange transactions of one billion yen can be amplified to 3 billion to 5 billion, or even to 10 billion.
According to normal circumstances, the bank established by Li Zhongxin and Masako Mitsui is a subsidiary of Mitsui Bank.
Their small bank was established for foreign exchange operations.
Generally, banks have many restrictions on foreign exchange operations, but the small bank they established will not be too restrictive. After all, they have Mitsui Bank as their background bank.
When Masako Mitsui operated this bank, she had signed an agreement with Mitsui Bank. If Chuanxin Mitsui Bank failed to invest in foreign exchange and reached the closing line, then all the assets of Chuanxin Mitsui Bank were taken back by Mitsui Bank.
In other words, Mitsui Bank has no risk in the bank opened by Li Zhongxin and Masako Mitsui. It is nothing more than opening up a trading channel for Chuanxin Mitsui Bank to exchange with the World Bank's foreign exchange market.
Chuanxin Mitsui Bank made money, and they were very happy because they would have some extremely slight spread income in it, whether it was rising or falling, and when it was exchanged, some subtle spreads would always occur.
This is true even the world's largest bank.
Chungshi Mitsui Bank lost money! They were also very happy because they also had a little poor income.
Moreover, after Chungshi Mitsui's foreign exchange investment was forcibly flattened, they had the right to annex Chungshi Mitsui Bank to their hands.
The banking industry is different from other industries. The margin and some other procedures require a lot of real money.
In other words, even if there is a problem with Chungshun Mitsui Bank, they will not lose any money. Instead, they will make some money due to Chungshun Mitsui Bank's bankruptcy.
Although there is such an agreement, if a large bank wants to guarantee a small bank, it will generally not do it. After all, many times, if a small bank goes bankrupt, it will affect their reputation.
This time, Li Zhongxin felt that after he arrived in Tokyo, he must first be familiar with the rules of foreign exchange trading and asked Keika Komura to find some professional foreign exchange trading personnel for him, and he must make a good profit in the foreign exchange market.
Chapter completed!