After Jinzhou was initially set up and busy with spring plowing, the government, at Guo Dajing's suggestion, organized the military and civilians to carry out large-scale infrastructure construction, including roads, ditches, etc.
You must know that in the middle and late Ming Dynasty, the four provinces in southern Liaoning were rich in products, "also known as Wo Rao, it was the first fertile land in Liaoyang, and all my grain and grass were settled here."
Before the Jianlu rebelled against the Ming Dynasty, almost all the materials in Liaodong were "taken to the Jin, Fu, and Haigai areas."
In other words, Liaonan Siwei has unique conditions and a relatively solid foundation for developing production.
Such a combination of factors enabled Jinzhou to achieve a bumper agricultural harvest this year. Although in Guo Dajing's view, such output is already the lowest compared with later generations.
The disaster effects of the Little Ice Age were definitely there.
However, by planting crops that are cold and drought tolerant, with short growing periods, and using water conservancy facilities, we can still resist and remedy the problem to a large extent.
But Jianlu had none of these methods and means to resist natural disasters.
Without the construction of water conservancy ditches or the lack of improved seeds, we have to rely on the weather. Next year’s harvest can basically be determined.
Moreover, if the Jianlu invaders come to attack in winter, if they return without success, food and supplies will be wasted, and the famine will even occur faster and earlier.
Zhou Qing and Ma Min stared at Guo Dajing blankly until he finished speaking. They woke up after a while and looked at each other with expressions of disbelief.
It is really unbelievable. Although Guo Dajing has tried his best to explain it in plain language, he has also used other terms to replace the Little Ice Age.
The conclusion is unquestionable. This is a natural law that no one can change. Just like the sun rises from the east and sets from the west, it is simple and repetitive but eternal.
The peak of the Little Ice Age will last for more than ten years, and will gradually weaken until Chongzhen hangs its southeast branch. Is this a coincidence or inevitable?
Guo Dajing didn't need to go into details. He only knew that the Jianlu were equally sad during the great disaster. While the Ming Dynasty fell in the great disaster, the Jianlu survived by looting the Central Plains several times.
As long as the Jianlu were not given the opportunity to plunder, the Jianlu would either collapse due to the economic crisis, or their strength would be greatly reduced due to being exhausted from coping.
It's that simple. As long as you can compete with Jianlu, you can almost win without a fight.
"Yuan Chonghuan is proposing peace with the advisors." Zhou Qing's mind seemed to have returned to normal operation, and he frowned and asked, "If it succeeds..."
"How can it be successful? How can it be successful?" Guo Dajing sighed and said: "Yuan Chonghuan was played by Huang Taiji without knowing it, because he didn't understand that what he couldn't get in the war was on the negotiation table.
I can’t get it either.”
"Besides, you can only make peace if you can fight. Otherwise, who will negotiate with you?" Guo Dajing added with a look of disdain: "In other words, only if you can fight can you stop the war. In Jianlu's view, the Ming army in western Liaoning can
Fight?"
Ma Min had been thinking for a long time and finally figured it out and said: "Yuan Chonghuan negotiated peace with Huang Taiji under the pretext of delaying the war to build the city."
"This is what he said, but we also have to say it." Guo Dajing smiled, "Negotiating peace is a shady matter, and no one dares to say it publicly. And rumors can also kill people if they accumulate gold and ruin it. What's more, our emperor
, but he has a suspicious temper."
After the great famine broke out, the Jianlu were bound to take action, and it was unlikely that they would sit in poverty and wait for death. Once they really looted the capital, the rumors being spread now would have an effect.
Just like after the death of Nurhachi, Yuan Chonghuan privately sent people to Houjin to mourn and negotiate peace with Huang Taiji. The excuse he made was to "take advantage of reality" and to buy time to build the three cities of Jinzhou.
But after Jianlu attacked North Korea and destroyed Dongjiang Town's base in Tieshan Yizhou, Yuan Chonghuan was immediately attacked and dismissed by Emperor Tianqi.
Obviously, Yuan Chonghuan had forgotten Emperor Tianqi's warning that "defense is the priority in the frontier, and payments should not be discussed lightly", and he became bolder.
But hidden dangers had been laid. As long as the rebels took action and caused a sensation in the government and the public, Chongzhen wanted to clear himself of responsibility, and Yuan Chonghuan was undoubtedly "good at negotiating peace."
The key lies in the changes in the political climate, which led to the Ming Dynasty's increasingly tough tactics against Jianlu.
Although Chongzhen was not opposed to using peacemaking as a strategy and means, he also said that the peacemaking strategy was just a way to restrain the captives, not a long-term strategy. For the time being, he would hold tightly to his troops, restore his strength, and wait to fight against Jianlu in the future.
In other words, negotiating for peace is a strategic deception and cannot be taken seriously, let alone being tricked by the enemy without knowing it.
Yuan Chonghuan tried to negotiate peace with Huang Taiji for the first time, but was used by Huang Taiji to alienate the relationship between the Mongolian tribes and the Ming Dynasty.
The thinking of the Mongolian tribes is also very simple: What kind of thing is it for us to fight with Hou Jin to death, but you Ming people are paying filial piety and negotiating for peace, who should you think is a fool?
They exchanged letters with Huang Taiji again, and the peace talks were heated, and it seemed that they would hit it off soon. However, Governor Yuan was very enthusiastic, and Huang Taiji was acting like a monkey.
By the time Governor Yuan had repaired the three cities of Jinzhou, he thought he had a plan. Huang Taiji had already led his men to bypass the Guanningjin defense line and rush into the Gyeonggi area to rob.
Yuan Chonghuan was just a Confucian scholar with some knowledge of martial arts, and he was very courageous; while Huang Taiji, with his scheming and strategies, as well as his talent and courage, even Guo Dajing did not dare to look down upon.
There is a huge gap between a king and a bronze who thinks he is a king.
Guo Dajing took out a notebook and continued to talk to Zhou Qing and Ma Min while flipping through it: "I have read all the Tang newspapers in the past few years, made a summary and summary, and picked out the most valuable parts..."
In fact, when Guo Dajing summarized the Dongjiang Juntang reports in recent years, he was shocked and admired Mao Wenlong greatly.
Knowing that Jianlu would plunder the capital, Guo Dajing relied on his own understanding of history, which was completely cheating or opportunistic.
But he never expected that it was Mao Wenlong who made this judgment earlier than him. Moreover, from the fourth year of Tianqi to the first year of Chongzhen, Mao Wenlong reminded the court to pay attention to the Hou Jin Dynasty's detour to enter the pass, as many as ten times.
For example, Tang Bao in the fourth year of Tianqi: "At the end of winter, attack Fengrun and other counties from Panjiakou, attack Taitou from Lengkou, Jianchang is unprepared, attack the border wall with one drum, and conquer China... and attack Xifeng
, carrying spy information, will be as foolish as before..."
Time: Winter; Location: Panjiakou and Lengkou in the direction of Xifengkou, Jizhen; Method of action: Borrow the road from the Mongols.
Emperor Tianqi's reaction at that time was: "The emperor also issued an edict, saying that the opportunity to restore the Liao Dynasty lies in this. When he heard that Panjiakou was false, he was eager to prevent thieves and ordered Ji Wenlong to provide soldiers with pay."
Emperor Tianqi not only seriously warned his ministers about the matter, but also had specific plans in his decree on how to respond.
However, Sun Chengzong and other Guan Ning officials did not take it seriously. They reported in the memorial that the slave thieves were cunning and always very cautious, and would definitely not do such risky things.
"...I will tell you what the officials believe. Everyone believes in the legend of Xifeng. If a thief enters Xifeng, he will definitely go to the West. The journey is long and the food and grass are extravagant. I don't know if the West is prepared. It's a shame."
The Eastern captives prepare themselves. The captives prepare themselves to invade Xifeng, but they cannot prepare themselves to invade the mountains and seas?"
This was the basis for Sun Chengzong's question. He believed that the Jianlu had to take a detour to enter the pass. The route was too far and would cost a lot of food and grass. Did the Mongols prepare it for them, or did the Jianlu prepare it themselves?
If Jianlu could prepare their own food and fodder to bypass Xifengkou, why not attack Shanhaiguan directly?
In short, there is a possibility of entering the customs via a detour, but officials such as Sun Gelao did not believe that Hou Jin would sacrifice his own interests and take such a risky military action.
Moreover, from Tianqi to Chongzhen, not only Mao Wenlong, but also some officials and generals warned that Hou Jin should take a detour to attack and not pin his hopes on the Mongolian tribes along the border.
Yuan Chonghuan, who was the governor of Jiliao, responded to this by writing in a memorial: "Everyone is concerned that it will sweep through the Western captives, and then they will cross the Liao and attack the mountains and seas, as well as the Xifeng and other places. People were concerned about it, and I was also concerned about it at the beginning."
"However, according to the fact that he has raised his troops to this day, he is not completely foolproof. Doesn't he know that there is this strange road that can be taken? However, the strange road is also dangerous... but it is expected that he will not go beyond the pass and he will attack."
What Commander Yuan means is that I have already thought of what others have considered. Jianlu has always been cautious in using troops, and there is absolutely no reason to take risks when moving troops. There is a possibility of taking a detour to enter the pass, but it is very slim, so it will definitely be fine.
In many historical materials, some people took it out of context and believed that Governor Yuan had known the enemy beforehand and had already warned the court to be on guard against the captives entering the pass through detours. But in fact, such rhetoric was used to paralyze the court.
Just because so many people expected that Jianlu might take a detour to enter the Pass, Guo Dajing no longer had to worry about precautions and preparations, and everything fell into place.
Zhuge Liang, who pretended to be ahead of the enemy, could use these reports as a basis to make arrangements in advance.
"If Jianlu really took a detour to enter the pass, Yuan Chonghuan, although he is in western Liaoning, cannot escape the blame. We must prepare in advance to set off a wave of public opinion and pull him down..."
Seeing Guo Dajing's somewhat vicious expression and talking about the fabricated rumors, Zhou Qing and Ma Min slowly woke up from the shock. After looking at each other, they nodded in agreement.
Gu Cho
I'm afraid most of the soldiers and civilians in Dongjiang Town don't have a good impression of the imperial court and Governor Yuan. If Governor Yuan is removed, the officials he replaces may not be good, but they won't be much worse.
We have already cut off food and salary, and we have to change the tribute route. Even next year's food and salary will be deducted. After using so many tricks, what else can be done?
Now that all kinds of methods have been used, Dongjiang Town has no worries. It is already the worst situation, how can it be stepped on to the ground?
"Okay, let's do it." After Guo Dajing finished speaking, Zhou Qing nodded vigorously, "Lao Ma and I will personally select the most loyal subordinates and cooperate with He Guizhong and Ma Haidong to fully implement your plan.
.”
Ma Min chimed in: "In almost a year, we should have enough manpower to deploy. There are also many Liao people in North Zhili, and they can also be recruited and used."
"Confidentiality is the most important thing." Guo Dajing reminded: "Lao He and Lao Manali are the key lines. When re-arranging, build another communication line, try to keep it as single as possible."
Zhou Qing smiled and said, "No problem. It's much easier to arrange spies in the mainland than in the Jianlu area."
Guo Dajing took the wine bottle, poured it for Zhou Qing and Ma Min, raised the glass, and said: "The future of Dongjiang Town, whether it can be turned around, may all depend on this action. Come, congratulate the success, congratulate the victory."
"Congratulations on the victory!"
"Congratulations on your success!"
The three wine glasses clinked together, and the three of them drank it all in one gulp, looking at each other and laughing happily.
For example, when Mao Wenlong reminded the court for the first time in the Tang Bao published in the fourth year of Tianqi, he clearly mentioned the names of people sent by Jianlu to deliver gifts to the Mongolian tribes, such as Li Bolong, Huang Jianji and others.
It is even surprising to find out what the Mongolian tribes said after accepting the gifts: "You two go and fight. I don't care if you win or lose."
Obviously, there is a spy from Dongjiang Town within Jianlu, and his status is not low. Or maybe Jianlu didn't keep it secret enough and leaked it.
In any case, Guo Dajing's strong intelligence capabilities gave Guo Dajing more confidence in turning the situation around next year.
After having enough wine and food, Guo Dajing did not leave immediately. Instead, he drank tea with Zhou Qing and Ma Min, discussed and perfected the plan.
If Jianlu takes a detour and enters the Pass, Guo Dajing already has two countermeasures. His thinking is more thorough and his actions are more feasible.
The first plan is to seize the Jianlu's home base. If there are many Jianlu troops left behind and gather in Liaochen to rely on defense, they can launch multiple attacks on the Jianlu controlled areas and liberate a large number of Liao people.
In other words, there are two alternative plans to the first plan, both of which are based in Liaodong, criticizing the weak and exaggerating, destroying the foundation of Jianlu rule, and strengthening their own power.
The second plan was to land across the sea and attack the captives in the Gyeonggi area, making it difficult for them to safely transport back the plundered people, livestock and money.
The reason why the idea of cross-sea operations came into being was the sublimation of Guo Dajing's thinking, or it was a re-study and review of historical events.
There are many discrepancies in historical data about how many troops Huang Taiji brought through the detour, and there are no extremely precise figures.
Although many historical materials say that Huang Taiji was a soldier of the Jin Dynasty, and one hundred thousand troops entered the pass to loot. However, based on the analysis of all aspects of the situation, one hundred thousand can only be claimed, and it is impossible to have so many.
The total strength of Jianlu, that is, armored warriors, was only about 60,000 when Lao Nu was alive.
After the attack on North Korea, the Battle of Ningjin, the first expedition against Chahar, the attack on Lushun, and several battles by the Dongjiang Army, they lost nearly 10,000 people.
The natural growth of the population, coupled with the plunder from the wild Jurchen tribes, the supplement that the Jianlu could get during this period of time was only three thousand at most.
In other words, if Jianlu had not mobilized, the total military strength would have been reduced to 54,000 to 5,000.
The development and growth of Dongjiang Town has posed an increasing threat to Jianlu. Even if Huang Taiji wants to take a detour to enter the pass, he must leave enough troops to prevent his lair from being attacked.
No matter how much you leave, 30,000 should be enough to withstand Dongjiang Town's attack. If it's 20,000, I'm afraid it won't be able to defend such a wide territory, and the Dongjiang army will always find loopholes.
Calculated in this way, the number of men and horses that Huang Taiji could use to plunder the Central Plains, including the vassal Mongols, should be less than 40,000.
Perhaps the Jisi incident in history was like this, when 40,000 troops entered the capital to invade the capital, known as one hundred thousand.
If there were really an army of 100,000, the war should not have been like that, and the battle to defend the capital should have been more intense. The so-called Guan Ning cavalry would have been disabled if the entire army was not wiped out.
And as the information in Guo Dajing's memory was continuously retrieved by his brain, he became more and more certain about his inference.
For example, after Huang Taiji led his troops to capture Zunhua, in order to ensure the choke point for exiting the Great Wall, Fan Wencheng was left behind to defend the city, but his strength was only 800.
It should be said that while Fan Wencheng stayed behind, Huang Taiji paid enough attention to Zunhua City. But leaving only this few troops only meant that the total strength was probably not even 40,000.
Guo Dajing slowed down his horse speed, and under the stars and moon of the night, he straightened his horse again to clarify his thoughts.
Winning chess regardless of family, Huang Taiji could not make this mistake.
Liaoshen was the center of Jianlu rule. There were so many Manchu family members, and there were graves of old slaves in Shenyang. There was absolutely no room for loss. Otherwise, he wouldn't have to be a Khan.
Therefore, he will definitely leave enough troops to ensure that his lair is safe. In this case, there will not be too many people detouring into the pass, and if he is defeated, it will not be a devastating blow to Hou Jin.
Forty thousand seems to be an overestimation, but thirty thousand is more and more likely.
Guo Dajing suddenly swung his riding whip in excitement. The horse misunderstood and ran forward for a few steps before slowing down again.
I always think that I have the upper hand and know the trajectory of historical development, but I never thought that I still need to peel off the cocoon and pull out the silk to discover the fallacies or rumors and find the hidden truth.
"It is not true to believe that history is true." Guo Dajing seemed to have found a sparkling gold mine, his spirits were high, and he couldn't help but laugh heartily.
That's it, that's it.
Just thinking about going straight to Jianlu's lair, and making full preparations for this, he almost hit his head on the iron plate, all the ideas may come to nothing.
Yes, if you can't attack Liao and Shen directly, you can only harass around the areas controlled by Jianlu. You can also rescue many Liao people and destroy Jianlu's farms. But the results are very small, far from achieving Guo Dajing's goal.
If you can't capture Liaoshen, then change your thinking and destroy the Jianlu's intention to plunder people, livestock, money and supplies, and make the Jianlu unable to recover from the great famine. This is also one of the important goals of Mingjin's strategic turning point.
Of the two options, one always has a chance, although neither is easy.
Guo Dajing reined in his horse and was only a dozen miles away from his store. However, he had an impulse and wanted to return to the Military Intelligence Department to discuss with Zhou Qing and Ma Min again to finalize another plan.
The branches on the roadside rustled in the night wind, and a few dead leaves fell down.
Guo Dajing smiled to himself. He was always so impatient, and his thoughts were not perfect. It was already so late, and he wanted to disturb Zhou Qing and the others from their rest.
Forget it, make a more thorough plan, discuss it carefully with Zhou Qing and Ma Min, and speed up implementation after improvement!
Guo Dajing held the horse's belly tightly, shook the reins, and galloped on the road again.
The Ministry of Military Intelligence is very close to the port, and personnel dispatched and returned can arrive directly by boat, which is faster and the time for message transmission is shorter.
Although the Jinzhou Military Intelligence Department was able to share intelligence on Dongjiang Town, the intelligence network under Mao Wenlong's personal control was not merged.