Zhou Hao's words made everyone present, especially the experts and scholars present, change their expressions. Chief Executive Dong and others were naturally surprised that Zhou Hao's words hit the target. At the same time, they had to think deeply about the current connections in Hong Kong.
Advantages and Disadvantages of Exchange Rate System.
Those experts and scholars are the academic leaders in this field. What Zhou Hao just said is also the conclusion they came up with. However, it was only arrived at by several of them after joint research for a long time, but Zhou Hao was able to do it on his own.
He was able to summarize the theoretical crystallization of their painstaking efforts, which had to surprise them.
Naturally, those present here would not know that Zhou Hao was tired of hearing about the pros and cons of the "linked exchange rate system" in his previous life. However, at that time, it was the experience summed up by many experts after the financial crisis. Although Zhou Hao listened to
It is easy, but it is the experience that economists finally came up with after long-term research and based on the financial crisis in Hong Kong and the previous currency crisis in Mexico.
"The linked exchange rate system cannot perform its function in a financial crisis, which can easily be exploited by speculators." Zhou Hao said: "Just like Soros and others attacking the Hong Kong stock market in late October last year, and now they continue to sell the Hong Kong dollar.
For example, they make big purchases in the market
Short selling Hong Kong dollar futures, the forward exchange rate risk premium of the Hong Kong dollar will immediately rise sharply, thus pushing up the interbank interest rate in the banking system. In order to severely discourage these speculators who speculate in foreign exchange, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority tightened monetary policy. At that time, the interbank interest rate was once
Soared to 300 percent.”
Ren Zhikang, director of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, was also present. When Zhou Hao mentioned this, his back straightened immediately and his expression became nervous.
"Although such high interest rates increase the cost of foreign exchange speculators, they will also cause heavy damage to the stock market. There was a flood of selling in the market, and the Hang Seng Index plummeted by more than 4,000 points, following the decline on October 28.
More than 1,400 points, please
Although Dos and his gang did not make any profits from foreign exchange speculation, they made a fortune from selling in the stock market." Zhou Hao shook his head and said: "That's why I said before that blindly raising the interest rate is simply treating the symptoms rather than the root cause."
After listening to Zhou Hao's words, Chief Executive Dong and the experts all looked at Ren Zhikang. Now they all know that this trick of simply raising the interest rate is really killing the enemy by one thousand and damaging oneself by eight hundred, and can even be used by others.
, foreign media call Hong Kong a "super cash machine" for speculators, largely because of this rigid measure.
Ren Zhikang's face turned red, but he couldn't think of anything to refute Zhou Hao's point of view, especially now that the facts were before his eyes. His "any move" move not only severely damaged the Hong Kong stock market, but also encouraged the arrogance of Soros and others.
arrogance.
Zhou Hao's voice sounded again: "Actually, don't blame Director Ren too much. Facing the attack of Soros's pack of evil wolves, his reaction was already very fast. Don't you see, the governments of Thailand and Malaysia were brought to death by those guys? Fortunately,
What’s more, we have Director-General Ren here in Hong Kong to hold the city gate firmly.”
At this moment, Zhou Hao's words really sounded like heavenly sounds to Ren Zhikang. Facing Zhou Hao, he felt inexplicably grateful in his heart. He wished he could go over and kowtow to him to say thank you. It was completely over for him that he had just fallen into such an embarrassing situation. It was also Zhou Hao.
Hao single-handedly facilitated it.
Zhou Hao's "understanding" of Ren Zhikang was even more exquisite in the eyes of Qin and Bai, because it was clearly a profound way to control a subordinate. It was appropriate to be gentle and gentle between tightening and loosening.
He fell down and then helped him up, making his subordinates unknowingly become obsessed with him. They often use this method of controlling subordinates, or they are used by their superior leaders on them, so they are particularly sensitive to it.
Both Qin and Bai couldn't help but think of some rumors from the central government. The chairman and the prime minister had entrusted the heavy responsibility of Hong Kong to Zhou Hao, and Zhaojiadui Zhou Hao fully supported it. Now Zhou Hao has shown another
With such an "imperial mentality", they could not help but guess: Could this Zhou Hao really be the successor specially cultivated by the superiors?
Zhou Hao didn't know that the measures he had taken to smooth over the "local forces" in Hong Kong for the sake of the overall situation would make Qin Donghai and Bai Zhengnan have that kind of association. Otherwise, he would have really lamented the imagination of those high-ranking officials.
Zhou Hao, who was focused on the financial war in Hong Kong, did not notice the little thoughts of Qin and Bai, and continued to say to everyone present: "Do you know what Julian Robertson is most concerned about in Hong Kong?"
Everyone shook their heads, and Zhou Hao said: "One is the number of tourists visiting Hong Kong, and the other is the overdraft rate of Hong Kong investors."
At this time, another expert said in confusion: "We can understand the investor overdraft rate, because the investor overdraft rate can show the excitement of the stock market. When the overdraft rate reaches an extraordinary level, the stock market may be turbulent.
It’s not far off, so the overdraft ratio can be seen as a reverse indicator. But what does the number of tourist arrivals have to do with this?”
Zhou Hao explained: "Perhaps most people think that the number of tourists visiting Hong Kong is just one of the more than ten comprehensive indicators that need to be observed to track Hong Kong's economy and market, but under Julian Robertson, or at Tiger Fund,
In their eyes, the number of tourists visiting Hong Kong has a huge impact on the Hong Kong economy and is an important indicator for them to take actions against Hong Kong.
First of all, tourists visiting Hong Kong are directly related to Hong Kong’s foreign exchange earnings, and foreign exchange earnings are the raw materials for the issuance of Hong Kong currency. According to my personal statistics, the tourism industry accounts for more than 40% of Hong Kong’s service exports, which plays an important role in stabilizing the linked exchange rate system.
Very important support role.
In addition, the consumption of tourists visiting Hong Kong contributes hugely to Hong Kong’s GDP. On the surface, according to statistics from the Hong Kong Tourism Association, the consumption of tourists visiting Hong Kong contributes only 6% to GDP. However, if we take into account its indirect multiplier effect on the economy,
Digital effect, I estimate that its contribution to GDP is no less than 12.5%.
Another point is that tourists visiting Hong Kong are also a leading indicator of the economy. From the number of tourists visiting Hong Kong, we can basically infer the trend of another important economic activity indicator - retail consumption."
After Zhou Hao's explanation, everyone suddenly understood. Zeng Yingquan also held his chin and muttered: "Tiger Fund really lives up to its reputation. It sees what others cannot see, and uses it as a breakthrough to give the enemy a fatal blow."
"According to me, compared to Tiger Management or Julian Robertson, Zhou Hao is more powerful." Ren Zhikang said with a smile: "It is difficult to play conspiracies, but it is even more difficult to expose conspiracies."
Chief Executive Dong nodded and said with a smile: "No wonder the Chairman and the Prime Minister told us to ask Zhou Hao when we encounter problems. The leaders are indeed right."
Compared with these, those experts were more concerned about academic things. After Zhou Hao showed his "strength", they had long put aside all contempt, and immediately gathered around and asked hurriedly: "
Zhou, Teacher Zhou, since the linked exchange rate system has such obvious and dangerous shortcomings, how can it be improved? Is it really necessary to abandon the current linked exchange rate system and switch to other exchange rate systems?"
Hearing that these experts in their 50s and 60s even called them "teachers", Zhou Hao really couldn't laugh or cry. However, the issue they raised was indeed a crucial economic issue for Hong Kong, so he said patiently: "
In fact, no exchange rate system will be suitable for any economic system at any time, because no matter which exchange rate system is implemented, the most important thing is that it must coordinate with the overall macroeconomic policy.
The linked exchange rate system has been effective in Hong Kong since its implementation in 1983, and I believe it will continue to play the same role in the future.
As for what you said about switching to other exchange rate systems, I think you must have studied it in depth. In fact, other exchange rate systems are not the best choice for Hong Kong. I personally think that under the current economic system,
Before substantial development occurs, the linked exchange rate system is still the most suitable for Hong Kong."
"But Teacher Zhou, didn't you say before that the linked exchange rate system has obvious shortcomings?" An expert said: "Could it be that when there is another financial crisis next time, Hong Kong will suffer huge losses due to the rigidity of the exchange rate system?"
Zhou Hao smiled and shook his head: "Although we cannot switch to another exchange rate system, we can improve the linked exchange rate system."
Then, everyone present, including Chief Executive Dong, Zeng Yingquan and Qin Bai, the two central bank governors, looked at Zhou Hao with bright eyes, and heard Zhou Hao say: "We can strengthen the currency board mechanism, which will help create a lower
interest rate environment, and the main content of this measure is to
The discount window replaces the original liquidity adjustment mechanism. Under this new arrangement, banks can use Exchange Fund bills and bonds to borrow overnight funds from the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, which can virtually increase the account balance of the banking system several times or even
Dozens of times, increasing the bank's liquidity.
The Hong Kong Monetary Authority announces the basic interest rate before the start of each day, which also has a certain guiding effect on the market. The basic interest rate will become the upper limit of the overnight interest rate. If the overnight interest rate is higher than the basic interest rate, the bank does not need to borrow money from other banks in the market, but only needs to
Use exchange fund bills on hand to discount
This will alleviate the pressure of rising interest rates. At the same time, the government should also implement some measures to tighten the supervision of securities and futures, such as preventing short sellers from selling below the market price of the stock.
And strengthen the investigation and monitoring of illegal short selling to make short selling more difficult."
These measures were all improvements made by the Hong Kong government to the linked exchange rate based on the experience gained after the financial war in the previous life, and are now being used by Zhou Hao.