Chapter 961 957 [Inflation expansion and colonization of the mean]
Chapter 961 957 [Inflationary Expansion and Moderate Colonization]
"Spanish silver can be seen all over Europe." - King Charles II of England.
This sentence refers to the rampant smuggling in America.
In the first two decades of the 17th century, the amount of American silver imported into Spain reached more than 200,000 kilograms every year.
By the 1930s, it had dropped sharply to an average of only 140,000 kilograms per year;
By the 1950s, only 40,000 kilograms of American silver were flowing into Spain each year.
The "reduced" silver production in the Americas was initially caused by floods in Mexico and continuous rains that caused water accumulation and landslides in silver mines. Moreover, silver is refined with mercury, and mercury resources were consumed too much, making it impossible to dig out silver mines to refine silver.
This situation is actually slowly recovering.
Why does silver production in the Americas continue to decrease? Of course it was a deliberate result of colonial officials!
A large amount of silver was mined and refined, and was not reported to the king at all. Instead, it was traded privately and flowed into various European countries. That's why Charles II said that strangely: Spanish silver can be seen all over Europe.
The King of Spain was confused about the situation and tightened restrictions on the trade of galleons to prevent too much silver from flowing into China. In addition, the Japanese shogunate also banned the daimyo from mining silver mines, which really caused a silver shortage in the late Ming Dynasty.
Forbidden City, Imperial Garden.
Song Yingxing, who has retired, took out the first edition of "Economic Tips", sipped tea and said: "This year, prices in coastal cities have risen sharply. The root cause is the increased inflow of silver from the Americas and Japan."
Zhao Han flipped through the manuscript and listened to Song Yingxing continue.
Song Yingxing said: "Li Quan took the fleet to America for trade, which made Spanish officials on the west coast of America completely open to smuggling. Not only did they smuggle with Li Quan, Spanish officials and the navy themselves also ignored the king's ban and filled the cabins.
Goods and silver. However, the power of the Japanese shogunate fell, and the banned silver mines resumed operations one after another. All this silver is flowing to the coastal provinces of China."
"Having too much money is also a worry." Zhao Han smiled.
Song Yingxing added: "I have carefully reviewed the "Price Essays" over the years, taking Jiangsu, Lianghu, and Sichuan as examples. The rise in prices in Jiangsu will affect the two lakes in about two to three years, and Sichuan in about five to six years. In the northwest,
In the southwestern region, the impact is more delayed."
Zhao Han said: "We can only carry it through forcefully."
There is really no way. At this time, Chinese goods accounted for absolute dominance in the world, and China was a net silver inflow country. In the new era of Datong, sea trade became more and more prosperous, and this situation became more obvious. The continued rise in prices cannot be stopped.
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The farmers are the ones suffering!
Businessmen have huge profits, and industrial and commercial workers and citizens can increase their wages. Farmers who only have grain income are the most affected (the increase in grain purchase prices has not kept up with the increase in commodity prices).
Of course, China is large enough to buffer this impact.
European countries are small, so it is scary to encounter such a situation, and a proper term was coined - price revolution.
Due to the large inflow of silver from the Americas, there were still so many goods produced. In Spain, prices nearly doubled in the first 50 years of the 16th century. In the next 50 years, prices increased by about 60%. It was not until silver production was reduced that the momentum was stopped.
France was the first to be affected, followed closely by Italy. The people have become stupid, their incomes have not increased, and shopping has become more and more expensive.
Charles II was very lucky. The time when he returned to seize the throne coincided with the peak of the price increase rate in Britain. Not only did this guy have to face financial difficulties, but he also had to face soaring prices. Who allowed Britain's "price revolution" to happen?
So slow? Spain and France have already completed their reforms.
Song Yingxing continued: "Now, the imperial court has issued gold coins again, and the official price of gold and silver has been lowered, and merchants have even gone to India to trade. I heard that those Indian merchants like to pay with gold and silver coins, and gold coins account for a large proportion. In the future, not only
If there is a huge inflow of silver, gold will also flow in."
"What countermeasures does Song Qing have?" Zhao Han asked.
Song Yingxing said: "When collecting land taxes, we must be extra cautious and pay more attention to local grain prices to avoid placing too heavy a burden on farmers."
Since Zhang Juzheng's reforms, China's land tax collection has been changed to currency. However, grain discounts vary from place to place, and officials have a lot of room for manipulation, which has always been chaotic.
The Datong New Dynasty calculated taxes based on the number and grade of fields, and the tax rate also followed the local grain prices.
Nowadays, the price of grain continues to rise, but farmers are often priced down when selling grain. In addition, most provinces no longer collect taxes in kind, and farmers can only pay taxes with money. As the denomination of official stamps and military stamps is changed from grain units to currency units,
Datong Bank has also gradually reduced its grain collection and turned grain transactions more into private activities. All these factors will bring a heavy burden to farmers if they are not careful.
Studying the Qing Dynasty, the White Lotus Uprising, the Taiping Heavenly Kingdom and other movements in another time and space, in addition to natural disasters, wars and other factors, the outbreak time of the previous major uprisings highly coincided with the violent fluctuations in silver prices. The reason is that the collection of agricultural taxes seriously lags behind changes in relative prices.
If the peasants cannot survive, they will have no choice but to rebel.
Zhao Han nodded and said: "The cabinet must communicate with the Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Household Affairs, and Ministry of Commerce to formulate a more detailed system to minimize the impact of prices on land tax."
It can only be mitigated but cannot be eliminated. Even in modern society, it is the same. Farmers are always the most unlucky group.
Zhao Han knew nothing about economics. Although he could understand Song Yingxing's "Economic Knowledge", he could not give any more hints. This knowledge can only be slowly explored and supplemented and developed by more scholars.
Zhao Han said: "This book is printed in 5,000 copies, half of which are distributed to various government officials, and the other half are given to private booksellers for distribution. Officials and civilians can write letters to add their opinions and submit them to the cabinet for study and discussion. In the future, the court will
, discusses economics every two months."
Zhao Han closed his eyes and thought, and then said: "Let the Datong Bank in the coastal provinces raise interest rates, absorb more deposits from merchants and people, and reduce the amount of silver on the market. Then use this money to purchase overseas grain and ship it to Hebei."
Store it as military rations for the conquest of Mobei!"
Song Yingxing was stunned for a moment, then clapped his hands: "Wonderful, this should be included in "Economic Tips"!"
Ancient banks really didn’t deposit money and charge custody fees.
At least since the mid-Ming Dynasty, with the prosperity of the commodity economy, banks have to pay interest on deposits. There have also been disputes. Leaders of civil societies deposited collective funds into banks and were accused of misappropriating the interest on deposits.
With Zhao Han's limited economic knowledge, he can only think of raising interest rates when inflation occurs.
Not to mention Nanyang, with the development of Taiwan and Hainan Island, the grain output of these two places is more than enough, and large quantities are trafficked to mainland provinces every year. Datong Bank raises interest rates to absorb more deposits, and then lends them to the imperial court, which takes them overseas.
Buying grain as supplies for the conquest of Mobei is equivalent to solving many problems at once.
No one in the civil and military circles of the Manchu Dynasty expected that the direct cause of Zhao Han's decision to send troops to Mobei was inflation.
Compared to the aggressive Mughals and Bengali emperors, who were also engaged in external expansion, Zhao Han's operation was able to throw the two brothers out of business.
Of course, the silver used by the imperial court to buy grain will definitely flow back to the coastal areas, but at least it will lengthen the buffer time. And some of the other silver will be used as military expenditures in Hebei and Monan, and some supplies will be purchased locally, which will also alleviate the problem.
There is insufficient silver on the other side and it stimulates economic development there.
Perhaps we can do this when we regain Xinjiang in the future, and by the way, we can also promote the imperial court's standard silver coins to the Western Regions more effectively.
Even if there is no war, the silver absorbed by raising interest rates will be used for infrastructure construction such as roads and water conservancy, and will also create more job opportunities. Doing so will definitely increase the court's debt, and the national treasury may never be replenished.
This is tantamount to changing the financial thinking of the imperial court and developing in another direction. It is completely different from the traditional state treasury that always saves money and uses it when doing things, and levies taxes when the state treasury is not enough.
What really gives Zhao Han a headache is that there are no commercial competitors in the world (even in the late Qing Dynasty, there was a trade surplus). In the next few decades or hundreds of years, or even longer, there will only be a net inflow of silver, and prices will rise if you are not careful.
Skyrocketing. How to make prices rise steadily is the key, which can only be left to future generations to solve.
Song Yingxing sat in a carriage and was escorted home by the palace guards.
Zhao Han then went to the Yingmin Palace to work and read the work report of Kuang Hong, Governor of Palembang, and compared it with the reports of Luzon, Coconut City, Semarang, Malacca, Pattani and other overseas territories.
After thinking about it for several days, Zhao Han sorted out his future colonial ideas.
Places with a lot of cultivated land, a large number of Han people, and uncomplicated terrain, such as Semarang, Palembang, and Coconut City, can quickly and violently colonize, like Zhang Xianzhong did, but they have to slow down when encountering mountains and jungles.
speed.
In places like Siberia and Luzon Island, the terrain and climate are extremely complex, and the number of Han people is relatively small. In this case, the cost of military expansion is too high. Even if the territory is conquered, there are not enough Han people to occupy it, so it has to be sidelined.
Use force to intimidate and transform the indigenous people into Han people.
Luzon is easy to deal with just along the coast, and there are mountains and jungles in the middle. Zhang Xianzhong's method cannot be used, and you have to use both kindness and power like Zheng Guozhong.
Siberia is extremely cold, transportation of materials is difficult, and immigration is extremely difficult. It is fundamental to turn the indigenous people into Chinese people.
There are also Hamgyeong Province and Pyongan Province in North Korea, which are highly civilized and have intellectuals who can read Chinese characters, but the terrain is not suitable for violent rule. Then we should give priority to giving priority to education, and turn them all into Han people.
Zhao Han's thinking became clearer and clearer, and he wrote "Essentials of the Governor". In the future, all overseas officials will have to study this book carefully.
Specific policies will depend on specific circumstances.
Confucianism pays attention to the mean. The mean is not to follow the crowd, but it belongs to the ignorant.
The core idea of Zhongyong is the unity of heaven and man, and emphasizes the coordination of heaven, earth and man.
Doctrine in the narrow sense talks about the cultivation of human nature and how to be a gentleman.
In a broad sense, moderation talks about how to do things. To put it bluntly, you must stick to your principles and know what your goals and bottom lines are. Then make the most appropriate decision based on the environment and interpersonal relationships, adapting measures to the times, local conditions, and people.
should.
Zhao Han's colonial policy was moderate, with the core being development and the rest depending on the situation.
