Chapter 302 Embracing the Main Line Market (Two in One)
Chapter 302: Embracing the Mainline Market (Two-in-One)
Author: Ru Meng Ru Hua
Chapter 302: Embracing the Mainline Market (Two-in-One)
Three days passed by in a flash; in the last three days of trading in February, although the index continued to set new highs, it did not leave any impression.
The reason for holiday syndrome is that most people have not yet entered work mode.
As the two sessions approach, market news comes out frequently, which deeply affects the transactions in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, especially the trend of heavyweight stocks on the main board.
Since entering 2015, A-shares have been deeply affected by policies and have experienced very large fluctuations.
In Gu Junhao's view, a series of fluctuations are still determined by the speculation mechanism of A-shares themselves.
If the index remains high, once there are some disturbances in the policy, it can immediately rise or fall sharply.
The stock index remains high, making ordinary investors and institutional investors alike feel particularly unconfident.
All everyone can think of is to run away or re-enter in time as the policy changes.
If A-shares want to establish a real value investment system, there is a long way to go.
Or maybe the so-called value investment in A-shares is just a false proposition, and all value will only come from the profits obtained.
A series of profound news for A-shares came out of the market over the weekend. The official approval of SSE 50 and CSI 500 stock index futures has increased the probability of fluctuations in heavyweight stocks.
The futures market is different from the A-share market in that its risks and fluctuations are quite large.
During the stock market crash in June, some people took advantage of the uniqueness of futures to short A shares in order to obtain greater profits.
In addition, the interest rate cut policy announced by the central bank after the holiday can be regarded as officially implemented.
However, in Gu Junhao's view, this news is not necessarily good news. Previous expectations were too high, and large financial and weighted sectors have already reacted in advance.
The purpose of hyping expectations has been achieved, and when the expectations are truly realized, the market's hype mood will naturally cool down to a certain extent.
But speaking of the most popular topic this weekend, it is undoubtedly a certain host’s video about smog.
This video can be said to have hit the internet and caused a huge sensation. Within two days over the weekend, it was a hot topic on the entire internet.
In his previous life, Gu Junhao also experienced this scene, but with the subsequent collapse of the host's personality, no one mentioned it anymore.
Now that I have experienced this scene again, I have a different feeling.
When talking about this topic with Zhang Yiru at home today, what Gu Junhao was thinking about was the collective movement of environmental stocks on Friday.
Any big event will be reflected in the stock market along with economic effects, and this time is also different.
If nothing else, environmental stocks will perform better next week.
Gu Junhao is not very interested in environmental protection stocks, mainly because the hype logic of environmental protection stocks does not conform to Gu Junhao's investment thinking.
There are certain barriers to entry in some parts of the environmental protection stock industry, and some even require an administrative licensing system to enter. There are no large monopoly giants in the market, but the company's business is relatively simple.
In terms of performance, there is not much room for imagination. It mainly relies on tax subsidies, and the gold content is not high.
For some environmental protection funds that rely on franchising, their investment costs, construction and operations require funds to be withdrawn for as long as 20 to 30 years, and the fixed cost investment is very high.
Moreover, the partners it cooperates with are basically local governments. A series of economic downturns and government personnel changes will cause great changes in the company's business. Gu Junhao is not very optimistic about this type of company.
Long-term logic is not enough to support the foundation of the company, and it relies more on short-term speculation.
Whenever the A-share market enters a period of adjustment, some environmentally friendly stocks will be pulled in to replenish the stock, which also shows that even if it is speculation, their status is still in the back row.
There are nearly thousands of stocks on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, and each one has its own possibility of rising. However, as an ordinary investor, it is impossible to analyze every company or every sector so thoroughly.
Ordinary investors should focus more on the main trend and embrace the main trend.
In addition to obtaining more sufficient profits, it can also be relatively safer.
When the overall market changes, the main market tends to be relatively more resilient than other sectors.
In the current market, when it comes to embracing the main storyline, Gu Junhao is definitely one of the leaders. This can be seen from the performance of the two Junshi funds.
After the end of February, the performance of the two Junshi funds was also very different. Affected by the sharp retracement of Yinzhijie after the holiday and the suspension of Dongfang Wealth, the overall size of Junshi No. 1 retreated to less than 413 million yuan.
The scale was more than 2 million yuan less than before the holiday, and the net worth also dropped to 10.3203.
Although Junshi No. 2 Dongfang Wealth is also in a suspended state, it benefited from the sharp rebound of two Chinese-headed stocks and Huanghe Securities. After the end of this month, the overall size of the fund reached 1.19 billion yuan, and the net worth ratio was as high as 2.3817.
Things have turned, and three days after the holiday, it was Junshi No. 2's turn to rise, while Junshi No. 1 retreated slightly.
Although I wrote to investors before the holiday to explain why the two funds had different growth rates, nothing was more real than the specific data.
March 2nd, Monday, trading day.
Stimulated by the weekend news, the three major indexes in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened higher across the board, with the ChiNext Index performing the most. The ChiNext Index jumped upward and opened higher, reporting at 1944.11 points, opening more than 16 points higher.
Affected by the smog video that hit the Internet over the weekend, environmental stocks surged across the board. More than a dozen environmental stocks, including Feida Environmental Protection and Xianhe Environmental Protection, closed at the daily limit at the opening.
"It's too arrogant to cut leeks. There was a change last Friday, but today it's straight forward."
Looking at the changed environmental protection section, Gu Junhao shook his head and said.
Naturally, ordinary retail investors will not be able to buy it if it is flat, and when they are able to buy it, it will be time to take over.
Unless you have long-term expectations, there is absolutely no need to participate in this kind of short-term trading with no turnover rate.
With the environmental protection stocks making such a fuss, today's hot topics are undoubtedly small and medium-sized entrepreneurial stocks.
After official trading began, the ChiNext Index opened higher and moved higher, with the index showing no intention of covering the gap.
However, the Shanghai Composite Index, which also opened high, fell rapidly, and the stock index fell rapidly; within ten minutes, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index fell by more than 0.6%, and the index turned green again.
The performance of the weighted sectors most affected by the interest rate cut was very different, with securities firms and steel performing the best.
The banking sector is a victim of interest rate cuts. Coupled with the rapid development of Internet finance, it has also eroded the profits of traditional banks to a certain extent.
Banks have become an important sector dragging down the index today, and the rise in sectors such as steel and coal has also added variables to the market.
At 10 o'clock, Cao Wenxun, who was trading, suddenly said: "The securities companies are not that strong today. So far, there is no daily limit. Only Northeast Securities has touched the daily limit a little bit."
Gu Junhao took over the topic and said: "This is normal. The performance of securities firms last week is the real manifestation of interest rate cut expectations. This week will definitely be dominated by shipments. You can also be bolder in doing T."
"This morning Zhongxin Securities also announced a reduction in the one-year financing benchmark interest rate. This is a good thing for investors, but it is not a good thing for the performance of securities companies."
"Brokerage firms have risen quite a lot, and the profits of most large funds have been very generous. The room for further growth should be limited."
In the trading room, in addition to being busy with operations, everyone also expressed their opinions on the market and sectors.
However, through Gu Junhao's observation, currently among the five people, even senior traders such as Wu Peng and Cao Wenxun do not feel that the market will continue to rise sharply.
Since entering 2015, the slow bull market that management has been creating seems to be gradually accepted by everyone, and the rising and falling market is gradually being recognized by the market.
No one would have thought that the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index, currently hovering around 3,300 points, would soar by nearly 1,900 points in the next two months or so, and that the ChiNext Index would reach an unprecedented level of over 4,000 points.
Even those who experienced the bull market in 2007 would have never thought about the skyrocketing market prices that followed, right?
This can be said to be Gu Junhao’s unique information gap advantage.
The differentiation of weighted sectors has caused the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index to fluctuate greatly, and once fell below 3,300 points during the session. However, the Chuang Index has continued to rise. Just after 10:30 in the morning, the ChiNext Index has exceeded 1,970 points, rising.
More than 2%.
The small and medium-sized startup sectors that have surged during the day are also not lacking in differentiation. Stocks such as Tonghuashun and Yinzhijie, which were strong in the early stage, performed relatively average today.
Tonghuashun's gains are pretty good, but Yinzhijie seems a bit weak today.
Most of the small and medium-sized companies that rose today are in the environmental protection, energy, and natural gas categories. They are more like compensatory gains for relatively low-level sectors.
It is also unpredictable how long the low-level compensatory rise market can last.
In the afternoon, the Shanghai Stock Index rebounded, further boosting the sentiment of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets. The ChiNext Index continued to rise high, rising by more than 3%.
After trading throughout the day, the ChiNext Index closed with a gap-yang line, rising 3.06% during the day.
At 1986.99 points, there are only less than 15 points left to break through 2000 points, making people seem to have seen the GEM rise in 2013 again.
In 2013, the GEM Index rose as high as 82.73% throughout the year.
Entering 2015, so far, in just 2 months, the GEM Index has risen from the lowest level of around 1,429 points to the current level of around 2,000 points.
In 36 trading days, the growth rate of the ChiNext Index has been close to 40%. It has been running wildly and continues to leave the main board market behind.
Among the small and medium-sized startup growth stocks, a series of products such as Internet finance, the concept of high dividend transfer and sub-new stocks continue to lead the main plot.
The Shanghai Stock Index finally rebounded in the afternoon, with the stock index rising 0.78% to 3336.28 points.
Both the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets achieved a good start in March. Today, except for the brokerage firms, the other three major financial markets retreated to varying degrees.
The official implementation of the interest rate cut did not produce as strong a reaction as before in the A-share market due to fear of high prices. Today, there are also relatively large outflows of funds from some heavyweight stocks such as banks.
If the market performance is not as good as expected, it will naturally lead to a large flight of funds. Entering Tuesday, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets both opened lower in early trading, with the Shanghai Composite Index opening nearly 20 points lower at 3317.69 points.
At the beginning of the opening, the Shanghai Composite Index fell rapidly, and the opening point of 3317.69 became the highest point of the day.
The banking and insurance sectors that corrected yesterday continued to adjust downward today.
The brokerage sector did not have yesterday's highlight performance and also adjusted significantly; sectors such as real estate and computer applications also entered a period of adjustment, and several major sectors where heavyweight stocks gathered became the main force for shorting the market.
The ChiNext Index opened slightly lower in the morning and began to fluctuate higher. The environmental protection sector that surged yesterday began to diverge.
Tong Hua Shun and Yin Zhijie failed to extend their rebound today and continued to fall after opening low.
The main gains in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets today were in non-ferrous metals and medical sectors such as chemical pharmaceuticals and biological products.
Whenever the medical sector rises, it often means that the main funds begin to enter a defensive stage.
In the morning trading, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index maintained a low and volatile trend after opening lower, while the ChiNext Index seemed to have the intention of launching an attack on 2,000 points.
At 10 o'clock, the GEM index was at 1995.83 points, up 0.45%.
However, as several popular sectors that were hot yesterday have diverged today, and the performance of individual stocks that were strong in the early stage is also very average, the index has never been able to break through 2000 points in the morning period, with the highest reading being 1998.34 points.
Near the midday close, the ChiNext Index closed at 1989.39 points, up 0.12%, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index closed at 3306.66 points, down 0.89%.
The three major financial sectors all fell by more than 1%.
After the trading officially started in the afternoon, the ChiNext Index rose rapidly, continuing the upward trend of shock in the morning. By 13:20, the index finally broke through 2000 points and reported at 2004.03 points.
However, at the moment when the index surged, many stocks among the GEM constituent stocks showed signs of diving, including Tong Huashun and Yin Zhijie, both of which were held by Gu Junhao.
"It's time to dive. There is still a certain amount of pressure at 2,000 points."
"Yes, the mood on the main board is relatively low today. The GEM is in a state of flux. The higher it pulls, the deeper it will jump."
"The three major financial sectors are also showing signs of diving, and Xibu Securities has begun a downward trend again."
At this time, Liu Tingting's voice also sounded.
Gu Junhao quickly switched the interface to the brokerage sector. Xibe Securities' current decline has exceeded 4%, the overall brokerage sector has fallen by more than 2%, and banks and insurance are also accelerating their decline.
As the three major financial sectors plunged again, the Shanghai Composite Index began to rapidly expand its decline starting at 1:30 p.m. At two o'clock half an hour later, the Shanghai Composite Index's decline expanded to 1.70%, with the stock index falling below 3,300 points and reporting at 3,279.56 points.
Bit.
The biggest plunge in the past half hour was undoubtedly the GEM Index, which hit 2,000 points.
In a straight line of decline, the stock index fell from around 2004 to the current level of 1974.16, a drop of 0.65%, a drop of as much as 1.5%.
The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the three major stock indexes began to stage diving competitions within half an hour of trading at the end of the trading day.
The three major financial sectors continued to lead the decline, and funds continued to flow out of these sectors.
At the end of the day's trading, all three major indexes maintained a sharp downward trend. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Index fell 2.19%, the stock index fell below 3,300 points and was at 3,263.05 points. The ChiNext Index closed at 1,961.74 points, down 1.27%.
Total outflows from the Shanghai stock market today were 6.320 billion yuan, and the Shenzhen stock market had outflows of 5.355 billion yuan. The GEM, which plunged sharply in late trading, had a net outflow of 834 million yuan, the smallest outflow among the three major stock indexes.
In the two cities, the securities firms, banks, and insurance sectors collectively experienced outflows of more than 23 billion yuan.
The brokerage sector fell 3.51% as a whole, and the banks fell 3.41% as a whole; these two major sectors ranked among the top two in the city in terms of decline.
The overall outflow of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets today exceeded 12 billion yuan, and the three major financial sectors saw significant outflows. The fear of high prices for the market was undoubtedly revealed, which also led to the very average market trend in the next three days of this week.
The GEM, which only had an outflow of 834 million yuan today, had a rebound on Wednesday. The stock index once rose 2.45% and regained its 2,000-point level. However, it continued to decline in the following two days as the market adjusted.
.
On Friday, the ChiNext Index recorded its largest weekly decline of 3.15%.
Within a week, the stock index hit a maximum of 2032.22 points and closed at 1951.41 points, an increase of 1.21% compared to last week.
Overall, the performance of the ChiNext Index this week was pretty good. However, during the high-low switching process on Monday, the performance of high-cap stocks was unsatisfactory. Yinzhijie fell 11.14% in a week, and the stock price fell below 80 again.
Yuan Pass closed at 79.53 yuan.
The high fluctuations in the index and the sharp correction in the financial sector have resulted in some effective breakthroughs in the index this week, but the market's profit-making effect is not very good. The high-priced stocks have continued to correct, and the low-priced stocks have not rebounded very well.
continue.
Over the past week, all of Gu Junhao's holdings, except for Zhongguo South Locomotive and Rolling Stock Corporation, whose merger was approved by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, continued to fall.
The one with the largest decline was Yinzhijie, and the one with the smallest decline was Huanghe Securities.
China South Locomotive & Rolling Stock Co., Ltd. had a sudden change at 2:30 p.m. on Thursday, with its stock price falling 2.45% from 11.56 yuan; it rose linearly.
Within the 10-minute rally, CSR's highest price was 13.04 points.
This performance amazed the market and attracted the attention of most investors.
Although CSR did not achieve closure on Thursday and closed at 12.68 yuan, the 10-minute change was enough to attract attention, as did CNR, which had the same trend as CSR.
As expected, after the market closed, both China North and South Railway Company issued announcements that the merger had been approved; obviously, the news was leaked in advance.
After the announcement, there was a lot of criticism in the two major stock trading areas, and insider trading flooded the entire network.
On Friday of this week, Zhongguo South Locomotive and Rolling Stock Co., Ltd. unsurprisingly once again experienced a sharp increase of 7.57%.
CSR’s share price returned to above 13 yuan, trading at 13.64 yuan, less than 8% away from its January high.
Judging from the trend, the North-South Railway Company, which has been approved for merger, has been on the trend of a second wave of breakthroughs after a wide adjustment for nearly one and a half months.
At the same time, CNR announced another suspension announcement.
The two companies will hold shareholders' meetings on March 9, which is next Monday.
On the day when the shareholders' meeting is held, the two companies will be suspended and trading will be suspended for one day.
"Maybe the performance in the past two days has been a little too outrageous. It is too obvious. The shareholders' meeting is also a trading day, so trading has to be suspended. Otherwise, I don't know how it will perform in the market."
The news of the suspension made Gu Junhao and others feel a little funny. Why did they go there two days earlier?