Chapter 319 Several major elements of the collapse
Chapter 319: Several major factors of collapse (Additional update 3 for the leader of the alliance)
Author: Ru Meng Ru Hua
Chapter 319: Several major factors of collapse (Additional update 3 for the leader of the alliance)
Since June 15, in just nine trading days, all major trend lines of the three major indexes, including the daily and weekly lines, have all fallen below. The Shanghai Composite Index has fallen by more than 23%, and all major moving averages have fallen.
Wear the 60-day lifeline.
Since the news of leverage reduction spread in the market on June 15, data shows that the financing balance of the two cities did not drop immediately. From June 15 to June 18, even though the market continued to plummet, the financing balance of the two cities continued to plummet.
The balance remains at a net increase every day.
As of June 18, the financing balance of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 2.26 trillion yuan, a record high. In other words, the plunge from June 15 to 18 did not remove much of the formal increase in leverage.
During this period, more emphasis was placed on cleaning up OTC financing, and the real turning point for the financing business was June 19, when the financing balance of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets decreased by 5.55 billion yuan.
This is the first time since June 5 that the financing quotas of the two cities have been reduced. After the Dragon Boat Festival, the reduction in financing balances further expanded. The cumulative reserve shortage in the four trading days this week was 84.88 billion yuan.
However, compared with the still high financing balances and most OTC capital allocations in the two cities, these reduced amounts are just a drop in the bucket.
The reason for the stock market crash is not just the excessive leverage. In addition to the rapid run of A-shares this year, the controlling shareholders and executives of listed companies who made a lot of money during the surge have already cashed out at high levels.
, fled away.
This year can be said to be the most violent year in the history of A-share holding reduction. Even Huijin reduced its holdings of the four major banks on a large scale at the end of last month, not to mention most private companies that have no sense of social responsibility.
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After two consecutive weeks of sharp declines, major institutions have also begun to change their tone. From the early bullish remarks to the current A-shares may need to take a break in the mid-term, among them, Shen Wanhongyuan's remarks are the closest to preparation in Gu Junhao's view.
Shenwan Hongyuan changed his tune and believed that A-shares may rebound in July after a sharp decline. During this rebound, public equity institutions are likely to gradually reduce their positions and then enter a long rest period.
Maybe even into December.
A survey conducted on the continuously plummeting stock market shows that more than 60% of investors believe that the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index will continue to adjust, and that the market has shifted from a comprehensive outlook to a comprehensive bearish stage.
Therefore, even with the central bank’s emergency interest rate cut and reserve requirement ratio at the weekend, as well as other favorable factors such as the entry of pension funds into the market and the completion of self-examination of securities companies’ external information systems, it cannot prevent the stock index from falling further.
Under the premise that we have entered a technical bear market, relying solely on policies without investing real money will not have much effect. If we really want to restore confidence in the stock market, there is no other way but to buy large amounts of money.
On Monday, June 29, the Shanghai and Shanghai stock markets opened slightly higher in early trading and then began to fall across the board again. The Shanghai stock index even tumbled by more than 10% during the session, crossing 400 points in one day.
Coal, steel, securities firms, and non-ferrous metals sectors became the main force in the market. At the end of the day's trading, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index fell again by 3.34%. Only the banking and airport shipping sectors in the two cities turned red.
GEM stocks once again became the hardest hit area today. After the index plunged 8.91% last Friday, it plunged 7.91% again on Monday, falling below the 2900, 2800 and 2700 points in one day.
Today, the spectacle of thousands of stocks falling by the limit was once again staged. Among the GEM constituent stocks that fell by more than a thousand points in ten trading days, more than 300 stocks fell by the limit today.
Concept sectors such as network security, financial IC, and broadband China, which were hotly speculated in the early stage, have all fallen by the limit; to sum up, both retail investors and institutions have fallen completely.
Affected by today's huge earthquake in the Shanghai Composite Index, the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued a rare post on a certain blog to appease the market, while foreign media claimed that A-shares are already considering suspending IPO issuance to stabilize the current stock market.
A series of reactions have fully demonstrated that both the management and shareholders have panicked.
On the evening of June 29, following the central bank's double-cut policy and the official opening of the 72-hour gold rescue, the China Securities Regulatory Commission also announced that it had joined the gold rescue team, and successively announced that there is still room for growth in the scale of the financing business, and self-examination of over-the-counter capital allocation is about to begin.
End of waiting for news.
In addition, Huijin also announced that it would spend tens of billions of yuan to subscribe for four major blue-chip ETFs. In just nine trading days, the move from curbing the stock market to rescuing the market can be described as very dramatic.
On Tuesday, June 30, the last trading day of this month, A-shares staged a shocking reversal this afternoon due to frequent market rescue policies and Huijin’s substantial investment of real money.
In early trading, the Shanghai Composite Index once fell by more than 5%, and the ChiNext Index once fell by more than 7%. In the afternoon, in addition to the dramatic rise of blue-chip stocks, the three major indexes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges and individual stocks staged big rebounds.
At the end of the day, the Shanghai Stock Index's amplitude once again exceeded 10%, while the ChiNext Index's amplitude reached 15%. However, unlike yesterday, the three major indexes all rebounded from the positive line this afternoon.
The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated by more than 400 points during the session, falling as low as 3847 points, and closed at 4277.22 points with a gain of 5.55% in late trading.
The ChiNext Index rose from the lowest point of 2485.46 points, rising 6.28% in one day, and the index closed at 2848.61 points. Individual stocks experienced a rare surge of daily limit today.
There are nearly more than 250 stocks with daily limit in the two cities. Since June 15, the trend of daily limit has been hard to see. Today is a breath of fresh air for investors who have suffered from recent losses.
However, after the end of today, as the private equity fund rankings were announced again at the end of this month, Junshi No. 2's net worth remained unchanged, which cast a shadow over countless Gu Junhao fans.
Recently, Junshi No. 2's net worth has become a benchmark in the hearts of fans. Many people regret why they didn't follow Brother T and clear out Tonghuashun.
For example, among the Stud group, only Li Ze was spared from the recent sharp decline, while the rest have returned their profits for the whole year, and even suffered large-scale losses.
Li Ze, who now has a car, a house and savings, under the pressure of his parents, began to have frequent blind dates, which caused him to be physically and mentally exhausted; but it was precisely because of this that he escaped the disaster.
"The price has risen so much today. A certain team saved the market with real money, but Brother T didn't even come back to buy the bottom. Is it going to fall again?"
"There is news on the Internet that Brother T's trading team will start work tomorrow. They must be back to buy the bottom, right?"
"But Brother T himself is still on vacation, and the trading team can't make the decision themselves, so what's the use of going to work."
"That's right. Let's wait and see when the net value of Junshi No. 2 Fund changes. Otherwise, I will always feel a little uneasy."
"Hey, it's a big loss. I lost 40% of my principal, but it's better than my friend. He lost his position."
"Who is not already? All these years have been wasted."
——
Once the falling hob falls, it is difficult to catch it, even the big positive line on June 30. Entering the first trading day of July, there was no continued upward trend that investors expected.
The Shanghai Composite Index once again ended the first trading day in July with a 5.23% drop throughout the day. More than 1,300 stocks in the two cities fell by the limit. After today, most stocks began to show new closing lows since this round of adjustment.
According to the news, the China Securities Regulatory Commission has still introduced most of the measures, including that customers who have opened credit accounts but whose securities assets are less than 500,000 yuan can continue to engage in margin trading and securities lending industry transactions, and the cancellation of investor guarantee ratios below 130%.
The collateral should be added within 2 trading days and the guarantee ratio should be maintained at no less than 150%.
Securities companies are allowed to negotiate with their clients about the time limit for replenishing collateral. If collateral defaults, forced liquidation is not required, further expanding financing channels for securities companies. At the same time, the two major exchanges will also reduce transaction fees by 30%.
At the same time, Zhongjin Financial Exchange also responded that the QFII short selling rumors were untrue. However, a series of actions did not restore market confidence. In the following two trading days, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index continued to fall by 3.48%, and the decline continued by 5.77%.
As of July 3, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3686.92 points, plummeting 31.76% in just fourteen trading days. The continuous limit-down of 1,000 shares has dealt an unlimited blow to the market. At the same time, this systematic decline has seriously affected the social environment.
This weekend, an article circulated about investors' liquidation of positions put Zhongguo CRRC, which had fallen from a high point to its current position of 17.13 yuan, on the hot search again, thus arousing serious social concern.
Triggering such a large-scale social effect, a large-scale bailout is imminent.
The third update is here. Thank you readers for your rewards and monthly support. That’s it for tonight. I will continue to update during the day tomorrow.