When Long Shuai saw her, he naturally praised her: "What a smart girl. Captain Gu is very good at educating children."
Gu Xiao's old face turned red, thinking that this was taught by his predecessor, but it had nothing to do with him, but he could only say it politely.
When Ji Yunchang saw that there were only three of him left in the room, he formally said: "Captain Gu, I heard that you once said that a subprime mortgage crisis broke out in Congress, and that this subprime mortgage crisis would eventually evolve into a global economic crisis, and it would also affect us.
Organization. So the first question I want to ask is, in the face of the subprime mortgage crisis, how will country m respond, and how will our country respond?"
As Speaker, Ji Yunchang is responsible for the preliminary work of formulating medium- and long-term economic plans.
Therefore, I am extremely concerned about the prediction of the subprime mortgage crisis that Gu Xiao mentioned before, because it involves domestic response issues. If the Planning Department can come up with a good response plan in advance.
That will minimize the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis on the domestic economy and people's livelihood, which is also an important achievement of the Planning Department.
When Gu Xiao heard this question raised by Ji Yunchang, he also frowned and thought about it for a while.
After a while, Gu Xiao clarified his thoughts and said: "Speaker Ji, although the subprime mortgage crisis in country m is not obvious yet, many signs can already be seen, and they will become more and more obvious in the future. It will be easier in the second half of this year
We can see clearly that once an economic crisis occurs, country m's response will inevitably be to start printing money and transfer the crisis to the whole world through flooding. It will use excessive amounts of money to resolve the crisis and at the same time bubble up the economies of all countries in the world.
, in order to create future crises in various countries, and then adopt the policy of raising interest rates and tightening to guide the return of dollars to crush the economies of various countries, and then take the opportunity to harvest high-quality assets and cut the world's leeks through this rise and contraction. Of course, what I just said is
The influence of the general direction, I speculate that there are no more than three specific methods organized by country m: injecting liquidity, cutting interest rates, and cutting the discount rate. The subprime mortgage crisis is mainly a credit crisis. Unrestricted liberalization of loan conditions has pushed up real estate prices.
This laid the foundation for a subsequent huge credit crisis. The Organization of Country M should first inject liquidity into the market and provide measures such as refinancing plans for troubled homeowners. In order to alleviate the situation of large-scale overdue loans, it also continues to worsen.
At the same time, we will also take measures to protect some important financial institutions, such as Fannie and Freddie, and may organize measures to purchase the stocks of these two companies to prevent the two companies from going bankrupt. As for the interest rate cut, it will reduce the financing costs of financial institutions and home buyers.
The discount rate is to increase the liquidity of banks and prevent banks from collapsing due to runs."
Gu Xiao stopped at this point, picked up the cup and took a sip of tea, giving Ji Yunchang time to digest and think.
After listening to Gu Xiao's story, Ji Yunchang frowned and thought before asking again: "Captain Gu, if you are right, what impact will this subprime mortgage crisis in Country M have on our country, and how should we face it?
Woolen cloth?"
"If the subprime mortgage crisis in country m breaks out, the assets of people in country m, especially those holding subprime loan-related products, will shrink significantly. It will inevitably affect investment, consumption, employment and other aspects, thus causing great harm to the real economy of country m.
Big impact. I just said that the M state-owned loan crisis is first of all a credit crisis, and M country is a country whose economy is dominated by credit consumption. The decline in the M people’s confidence index caused by the subprime mortgage crisis will naturally greatly affect consumption. Coupled with unemployment,
The combined impact of factors such as rising interest rates and rising oil prices due to the depreciation of the U.S. dollar will inevitably plunge country m's economy into a severe recession. And the economic recession of country m will seriously affect global economic growth, because the total economic volume of country m accounts for 28% of the world economy.
At the same time, country m is the largest consumer goods market in the world. In 2005, the consumption expenditure of residents in country m was approximately US$8 trillion, accounting for 20% of global GDP. Therefore, once the consumer demand in country m declines, the supply and demand gap will be the largest in the world.
No country can make up for it. According to the International Monetary Fund’s predictions, for every one percentage point decline in country m’s economy, the markets of emerging Asian countries will drop by an average of 0.13 percentage points.”
"The financial crisis caused by the subprime mortgage crisis will seriously affect countries that rely on international trade and exports to drive economic growth. The subprime mortgage crisis will lead to a reduction in household income in country m, which will lead to a reduction in consumption. In addition, the depreciation of the US dollar will lead to commodity competition from exporting countries. These two factors will affect countries that rely on exports to drive economic growth. Unfortunately, our country also happens to be a country that mainly relies on exports to drive economic growth. Since my country changed its opening up, it has been attracting foreign investment and expanding exports to drive economic growth. It is the main economic direction of our country. Therefore, this subprime mortgage crisis is bound to have a huge impact on our country's economy. According to relevant data, our country's economic growth rate last year was 9.9%. According to this trend, it will definitely be double digits this year. However, after the outbreak of the economic crisis , I think the economic growth may decline sharply in 2008. Therefore, if we want to deal with this subprime mortgage crisis, the only way is to reverse the direction of export-led economic development and turn to domestic demand to drive economic growth. Only in this way can our country's economy be guaranteed. Continue sound and healthy development. To put it simply, it is an economic stimulus plan that significantly increases the money supply and invests in infrastructure, real estate, etc. This is also the idea of creating a dual circulation system for the internal and external economy that I mentioned in the project report before. It relies on one leg. It is always dangerous to walk. We have relied on export-oriented economic policies to drive economic growth for more than two decades, and it is time for a change."
After hearing this, Ji Yunchang pondered for a while and then asked his question: "Captain Gu, what you said is very good, but just now you said that Congress will use flood irrigation to pass on the economic crisis. We are also using flood irrigation at this time, isn't it?
Take the initiative to help country m solve its economic crisis?"
Ji Yunchang's meaning is obvious. Gu Xiao, your own statement is a bit inconsistent.
Gu Xiao sighed after hearing Ji Yunchang's words: "There is nothing that can be done about this. Not to mention that in the current global economy, there is me in you and you in me. The economies are deeply involved with each other. If China does not cooperate with country m to alleviate this
The subprime mortgage crisis means that China will have a formal showdown with Country M. Because without the cooperation of China, the world's largest manufacturing country and a major consumer of high-end products, Country M will not be able to enjoy the low-price daily necessities produced by China, nor will it be able to
Earn excess profits by selling high-end products to China. Then the economic crisis in country m cannot be liberated at all, and will trigger more social crises, and the resulting international status will also be seriously challenged by China, which will force
Country m will immediately carry out extreme suppression on our country and even launch a war."