The so-called return expectation, to put it bluntly, is the success rate multiplied by the absolute value - the absolute value of the return.
This is an action - of course, in Li Sheng's book it is a business action, the reason for the initiation and execution of this action. But as we all know, people are always hesitant and lazy, because there is always nothing to do but something to do.
Reasons, and reasons not to do it.
The reason for not doing this is, of course, to calculate it in reverse...the risk probability of failure, multiplied by the loss after failure!
And this matter...
Li Er thought about it carefully, and his heart suddenly thumped again.
If this incident reported by the Anbei City army fails, then the Tang Dynasty will lose one of its fierce generals, plus Anbei City, the base for the great cause of opening up the border, and tens of thousands of forbidden troops.
This loss is not huge. Although the tens of thousands of the imperial troops who were lost can run eastward... the land in this direction is extremely vast. Not to mention the pursuit of the Romans, even the local indigenous people would feel like fighting a long journey.
There is great suffering and deep hatred. There is a folk song "Three sets of carriages" written by Zeng Yun in this place. On the banks of Fuljia River, an old coachman...
In short, this is the flavor. If the Romans win, they will immediately pursue the victory. No matter how brave the imperial army of the Tang Dynasty is, they will not be able to resist it if they are routed. However, the Romans will certainly not be able to achieve total annihilation.
But this is not the point of the problem after all. The point is... In any case, even if they escape, in the ice and snow east of Europa and north of Mobei, these Forbidden Army soldiers may not survive for long.
This is the most cruel thing about war. On the one hand, it requires the most bravery, but on the other hand, it is the least tolerant of mistakes...
And these are not the most serious.
With a little calculation at this moment, Li Er can understand what the most serious problem is - there is no doubt that it is Cheng Yaojin, an old guy who probably only calculated the possible loss of the book strength - the entire army was annihilated, and the entire army was wiped out.
Part of it was regarded as a price to gain the possibility of directly damaging the main force of Rome and destroying the vitality of Rome within decades.
As for my life... in the eyes of this old boy, it probably doesn't matter. And with Cheng Yaojin's life, that's not all the price. The more price is as mentioned above, Datang
Losing a famous general who could live up to the expectations of all the Forbidden Army soldiers in the Tang Dynasty would have a long-term impact on the entire atmosphere of China...
It is very likely that in an unknown number of years, this matter will make the young people in China feel inferior to Rome, and... Cheng Yaojin was extremely righteous in what he did. There is no guarantee that other young captains in the Forbidden Army will do this in the future.
thing……
The more Li Er thought about it, the more he felt that this was probably going to be a blood loss, but... the more he thought about it, the more he felt that this might be true.
Because the rumors may be false, but from my understanding of Cheng Yaojin, I know that this guy must be true!
Not to mention, there is a lot of solid military information among these rumors, that is, Cheng Yaojin really brought 20,000 elite soldiers back to the military camp for night training on the night of the day he met the "Roman merchant" - this happened
If he wasn't training to attack the camp under cover of darkness, he could only have deliberately "exposed" himself to the Romans.
So here's the question, the Imperial Guard... has many training programs.
This day just happened to happen. Did Cheng Yaojin just plan to attack the camp at night for training?
Moreover... Romans are clearly here, and... even I, in Chang'an, feel that something is wrong with this Roman merchant just by hearing this description, because this guy clearly came to the military camp alone, and... although...
At first he said he wanted to stay overnight and asked for permission to trade, but he just ran away the next day - could this be a normal businessman?
Although he is not engaged in the business of cultivating goods, he is studying the art of cultivating goods attentively. This so-called Roman merchant obviously does not act like a merchant. Merchant creatures do not distinguish between nationality and nationality, because they must work tirelessly.
Chasing profits, the behavior pattern of this group of people is actually highly unified. It is not difficult to see some clues, even if you just listen to the report from a distance. Then again... the other party may not care about what is being observed at all, after all...
Exactly where the Roman boots and blades have arrived can be quickly ascertained - after all, heavy troops are deployed, and there is no way there will be no movement. And considering that according to Cheng Yaojin's speculation, even if he does not engage in this wave
To lure the enemy, the Romans must have sent a large number of troops to the east of Europe, which meant that the merchant only had to escape from the military camp - and then he could quickly return to his home to report the situation.
As for the mission of this merchant, according to the previous plan, it was to make the Roman spies realize that the military town of Anbei City in the Tang Dynasty was really engaged in reclamation because of the use of high-yielding new grains - the addition of this detail is absolutely
It can greatly improve your persuasiveness.
To apply the logic, it's like the news about Apple's mobile phones in later generations - someone tells you that the next generation of this device will have many new designs, and you will probably not believe it. But if the other party tells you that this time the mold may have a lot of new designs.
If the thickness is increased a little, it will immediately appear much more real - because this information is not eye-catching information, but information with no news value - more fundamentally, it is "unintentional information".
And what information in the world is more trustworthy than "unintentional" information? That's why the first version of this military action plan was approved by the DPRK.
But for now...
Li Er pondered for a while, then raised his eyes and looked around at the empty Manna Palace. It was silent all around, but his heart was roaring, Ma De... This old fool like Cheng Yaojin has to make a living, and if that's the case...
It seems that I can only cooperate with his second version of the strategy as much as possible...
But how does this fit together? Li Er thought about it, and then he frowned. Although Li Er frowned when he understood the eunuch's report, when he thought about it more carefully, he felt that the matter was even more serious.
Okay, this doesn't seem to work well.
Speaking of cooperation... I had already made arrangements before, and asked a small group of elites who had gone to the eastern and central parts of Mobei to bring steam vehicles to support them. The final plan - according to the original plan, was to use this steam vehicle to defeat the Romans.
Caught off guard.
When facing a large army, being caught off guard is enough - the Imperial Army of the Tang Dynasty is an army of tigers and wolves, and does not require the opponent to reveal too many flaws.
But now...since the other party is prepared...
Although Li Er estimated that the small group of elites he sent out could only reach Anbeicheng to meet with Cheng Zhijie's troops, and based on the time, the Romans should not know about the steam train yet...
