"The essence of preparation for diplomacy is to figure out what you want, and at the same time guess what others want. Only by knowing yourself and your enemy can you navigate the negotiation table with ease." Taiyuan Xuezhai pointed to Imagawa Yoshimoto and asked first, "Come on.
, the simplest thing is, what do the Takeda family want to get from this diplomatic negotiation?"
"Hold up the Hojo family and prevent the peace agreement from being reached, giving Takeda Sakyo an opportunity to lead his army to attack Odawara Castle. The longer the negotiations drag on, the better." Imagawa Yoshimoto answered eloquently, "If we really want to reach a peace agreement, we must fight hard.
This sum of money from the Hojo family must at least make up for the loss caused by the Takeda army's inability to sack Odawara Castle."
"The idea is correct." Taiyuan Xuezhai nodded slightly with satisfaction, "What about the Hojo family?"
"Reach a peace agreement as soon as possible, at the expense of greater interests, and quickly retreat back to Odawara Castle." Imagawa Yoshimoto replied after thinking for a moment.
"Then what exactly are these 'larger interests'? How many interests are the Hojo family willing to sacrifice for the sake of peace negotiation?" Taiyuan Xuezhai did not nod this time, but leaned forward slightly and stared at Imagawa Yoshimoto and asked.
"How do I know this? Isn't this decided by the Hojo family themselves?" Imagawa Yoshimoto shook his head matter-of-factly.
"No, you must know, you must know where your negotiating opponent's bottom line is." Taiyuan Xue Zhai shook his head, then used the paper roll in his hand to point Imagawa Yoshimoto's forehead, then straightened up, put his hands behind his back and said:
"In diplomatic negotiations, each party has its own bottom line. Once the bottom line is exceeded, the agreement will be unacceptable and the negotiation will only break down - this is a result that both parties are unwilling to see in most cases. Because even the stronger party,
In most cases, we prefer to obtain benefits without bloodshed and do not want to fight another war."
"But...if you put it that way, what does the result of the negotiation have to do with the negotiator? Shouldn't it have been predetermined a long time ago?" Imagawa Yoshimoto asked the question in confusion, "The strength of each party and the intelligence he possesses determine it.
Its bottom line is determined, and the bottom line of both parties determines the outcome of the negotiation before it begins."
"Wrong, big mistake!" Taiyuan Xuezhai shook his head repeatedly after hearing this, and then taught very seriously: "Never underestimate the role of negotiators!"
"If the bottom lines of both parties are in conflict, then the negotiation is doomed to fail from the beginning. If the bottom lines of both parties happen to overlap, then the final outcome of the negotiation is also doomed, which is to reach an agreement on each other's bottom lines."
"But in most cases, there is a lot of room for the bottom line between the two parties in the negotiation. This room is the place for the negotiators on both sides to play freely. Try to push the agreement to the other side's bottom line as much as possible.
It is the negotiator's job to strive for more benefits for his side in his own area."
"If there are only two people in charge of the negotiation who have no feelings, will not be tired, and are absolutely rational at any time, even if there is room between the bottom lines of both parties, the outcome of the negotiation will be doomed before the negotiation begins - it is destined to tend to the two sides.
The inevitable result determined by the balance of strength."
"But negotiators are also human beings, and they also have emotions. They will be tired, fatigued, frustrated, ashamed, panicked, and angry. Sometimes, they could have obtained some additional benefits for their side above the bottom line.
, but he was bound by human emotions and failed to act in this way."
“Sometimes it’s because of the fatigue caused by the back and forth of negotiations for days, and they just want to reach an agreement hastily and end this long torture; sometimes it’s because they are panicked because their bottom line has been guessed, and they lose the confidence to continue bluffing;
Sometimes it is because of the fatigue of repeating the same sentence over and over again and being unable to be understood by the other party; sometimes it is the frustration of having a well-prepared plan rejected; sometimes it is the condemnation of the other party's righteous words and the evil deeds of one's own that violate morality.
So shameful..."
·
"The key lies in the bottom line. Because all interests above the bottom line can be obtained through various means."
“So every negotiator must try his best to analyze the current situation and observe the reaction of the other party’s negotiator during the negotiation, guess where the other party’s bottom line is, and try to push the conditions as close to the other party’s bottom line as possible.
Seek maximum benefit for your own family. At the same time, negotiators on each side must also do their best to hide their own bottom line, because the other party is trying to figure out your bottom line all the time. When necessary, they may even mislead the other party."
"Once your bottom line is figured out, you will be very passive in the negotiation. The other party knows that even if the request is excessive, you are fully capable of agreeing. At this time, the attitude of the other party's negotiator will be very
Be firm, even if your tongue is like a lotus flower and you cry to heaven and earth, it will not help."
"But if the other party doesn't know your bottom line, he will be restrained during negotiations, fearing that the demands he makes are too harsh and will cause the negotiation to break down. This is the only way for negotiators from the weaker party to preserve their own interests in diplomatic negotiations."
"Of course, unless you are lucky enough to intercept the other party's communications, or there is a traitor placed next to the other party's negotiator, there is no way to directly know the other party's bottom line. Most of the time, you can only rely on guessing. And this is diplomacy
The essence of negotiation. Both parties ask for prices at the negotiating table, pay back the money on the spot, observe each other's every move, test the other party's bottom line, and carefully conceal their own bottom line from being discovered."
"When you are testing the other party's bottom line, you must reveal it confidently so that the other party can perceive that you are confident. Only such testing is meaningful. If you let the other party see at a glance that you are deceived and deceitful, even if you are really cheated,
If you hit the bottom line, the other party will think you are lucky and won't admit it."
"Similarly, when the other party is testing your bottom line, you must remain confident. Even if the other party really guesses your bottom line, you still need to firmly refute it. Once you show a wavering attitude, you will let others know your bottom line.
The other party is convinced that he has grasped the correct bottom line - maybe he was just blinded? Of course, there are also more skillful negotiators who will mislead the other party by performing a "wavering attitude" when they guess the wrong bottom line, but they are not careful.
It’s just self-defeating.”
"Generally speaking, each negotiator should nominally declare his 'bottom line' at a higher position to better protect his own interests. Even if the other party's request is above your bottom line, if you are very
If you are sure that the other party does not know your bottom line, you can reject it decisively. The other party will mistakenly think that this has touched your bottom line and will not dare to approach further."
"But both parties to the negotiation will also be well aware of this, and both know that the bottom line revealed by the other party must be exaggerated. Of course, your bottom line cannot be so high that the other party and yourself do not believe it. What you claim
The bottom line must be something you can convince the other party that you really regard it as the bottom line. At this time, it depends on which party has more information and which party has a firmer and more confident attitude at the negotiation table."
"The negotiators on both sides will perform hard all the time in such a complicated game, observe desperately, and rack their brains to think until they are exhausted. Sometimes, a slight flaw in their expression will reveal the bottom line of their duties;
Sometimes, just holding on for a breath and a cup of tea may dispel the other person's doubts."
"Such a diplomatic negotiation is a double test of the negotiator's body and mind. Lying and performing are not easy tasks, let alone performing at a negotiation table full of lies and judging which lies are the other party's lies.
In the long tug-of-war, whichever side’s diplomatic negotiators can no longer persist first, whichever side loses composure, whichever side can no longer pretend first, will be defeated and hand over the fruits of victory.”
·
"Now do you understand what the negotiation is waiting for you? Why don't you cheer up your teacher!"
After finishing his long speech, Taiyuan Xuezhai turned to look at Imagawa Yoshimoto - and found that the latter had no intention of listening at all.
"You stinky boy!" Taiyuan Xuezai was so angry that he suddenly hit Yoshimoto Imakawa on the head with the paper roll in his hand.
"Teacher, since you understand so well, just go and talk about it yourself! Why do you want me to go?" Imagawa Yoshimoto responded with a playful smile while avoiding Taiyuan Xuezhai's attack.
"My master must go, but you, too, must follow!" Taiyuan Xuezhai fought for a long time and realized that he couldn't beat Imagawa Yoshimoto after all, so he threw down the scroll angrily.
"I really can't help it... I have another errand. But it's okay, old man, I have already remembered everything you said." Imagawa Yoshimoto smiled and pointed to his temple with his finger, "Anyone is listening, yes
Listening."
"I hope you really listened." Taiyuan Xuezhai glared at Imagawa Yoshimoto, and then said again: "Now, guess what is the bottom line of the Hojo family's willingness to sacrifice their interests when negotiating with us?"
"Well...if their negotiators are purely rational people, as long as the benefits of this sacrifice are less than the loss of Odawara Castle's castle town being plundered, or even Odawara Castle being captured, they will agree. After all, if the negotiations cannot be reached,
, Won’t the Takeda Army attack Odawara Castle?” After Imagawa Yoshimoto touched his chin and thought for a moment, he had the answer.
"You are right. If Sakyo (Hojo Utsusuna) were to negotiate here in person, this might really be his bottom line." Taiyuan Xuezhai shook his head with some regret, "But the negotiators here this time
It was the 23-year-old young master Hojo Ujiyasu. He was young and energetic, but he was not so 'rational'. If he was humiliated and signed a peace treaty that was humiliating and humiliating the country, let alone whether his own self-esteem could accept it, would the Hojo family be willing to let it go?
The continued succession of this disgraced heir is a problem. So for Hojo Ujiyasu, his bottom line is much higher."
"But...according to what the old man said, my uncle (Hojo Utsuna) should be a more rational negotiator than my brother-in-law (Hojo Uyasu)? But if my uncle's bottom line is lower, doesn't it mean that we can start from one
Better negotiators get more benefits?" Imagawa Yoshimoto spread his hands and said with a smile, "Isn't this a paradox?"
"A rational negotiator may not necessarily be an excellent negotiator under any circumstances. Reason can only ensure that the family will not perish, but it cannot guarantee the maximization of interests. Although reckless negotiators can sometimes rely on momentum by mistake,
He and Barbarian Jin can win huge benefits, but sometimes they will lead to disaster." Taiyuan Xuezhai obviously saw it much more clearly, "Which one is better depends on the situation."
"What about this time?" Imagawa Yoshimoto knocked on the table with his hand.
"Haha, it's obviously better to be a reckless negotiator." Taiyuan Xuezai laughed bitterly, "Neither we nor the Takeda family have plans to completely eliminate the Hojo family, nor may they have a desperate attack.
We are determined to get to Odawara Castle and then desperately annihilate the main force of the Hojo Army. Since there is no fear of extinction, it is obvious that reckless negotiators are more suitable to fight for interests."
"In the absence of the determination to eliminate the Hojo family, we absolutely have no way to maximize our interests and force your brother-in-law to make the most concessions. Unless Chengfang, you and the young master Takeda can act realistic enough, as if this operation has already
It has been planned for a long time, just to eliminate the Hojo family in one fell swoop. If your acting skills really deceive the young master of Hojo, then he will naturally make a big compromise."
"But I feel that you can't perform it at all. Even if you perform it, the young master of Hojo will not believe it at all. After all, the facts are there - the Imagawa family and the Takeda family have not swallowed up the strength of the Hojo family. No matter how diplomatic negotiators act,
It’s useless, we still have to proceed based on reality.”
"So what is my brother-in-law's bottom line?" Imagawa Yoshimoto asked rhetorically.
"How can I make a guess without any reason? You need to explore these through constant dialogue and testing at the negotiation table. But you already have a rough estimate and have a solid foundation in your mind, so the negotiation will be much more stable.
Taiyuan Xuezhai changed the subject and asked again, "Then what do you think the Takeda family's bottom line is?"
"The Takeda family...if the peace talks fail, the Takeda army can loot Odawara Castle. Then the bottom line of the Takeda family is at least that the benefits ceded by the Hojo family should be about the same as the benefits from looting Odawara Castle?" Imagawa Yoshimoto followed what he just said.
The train of thought continued, but Taiyuan Xuezhai laughed at him.
"How is that possible? How can the Takeda family's bottom line be so high? If it really has to be that high, why bother talking about it? Just hit it and it's over. The target you set is almost the highest pursuit of the Takeda family." Taiyuan Xuesai ridiculed Imagawa Yoshi.
Yuan looked at him with satisfaction as his face turned red with anger, "Stop thinking about looting Odawara Castle, it's impossible for this to happen."
"Why?" Imagawa Yoshimoto asked.
"Why? Because neither the Hojo family nor the Imagawa family absolutely want to see it happen. Theoretically, the Hojo family's biggest loss is the Takeda Army's sacking of Odawara Castle, so even if it cedes the most benefits in the negotiation, it can avoid the worst.
The result will happen. And the Imagawa family will not sit back and watch the Takeda army sack Odawara Castle, because this means that the negotiations will break down and the Imagawa family will get nothing."
"You have to understand that here, there are 5,000 people in the Imagawa family, 9,000 people in the Hojo family, and only 2,000 people in the Takeda family. If it is something that both the Imagawa family and the Hojo family are opposed to, do you think the Takeda army can promote it? I guess Takeda
The young master of the family never thought that his dream would come true. The Takeda family made a profit in this negotiation. It basically did not pay any cost. Naturally, the bottom line is not too high. It only needs a small amount of blackmail.
.”
"I see." Imagawa Yoshimoto nodded.
"Okay, next is our Imagawa family." Taiyuan Xuezai pointed at Imagawa Yoshimoto, "To know your enemy, you must know yourself. So, what is the bottom line of the Imagawa family?" Go to study
