"Master Bian, judging from the level of training of Zhang Liao and Sun Jian today, the degree of cooperation between the two has improved significantly. Although it has not reached 80%, it has reached 72.2%. If the two of them join forces to contain Lu Bu, there will definitely be no
question."
"As for the new tricks Lu Bu showed in the battle, there are also ways to crack them. With Zhang Liao and Sun Jian's abilities, it won't be too difficult to master them in a short time and practice them skillfully."
"..."
"In this way, the fighting generals will not be at a disadvantage. The army will fight fiercely and have strong generals who can contain Lu Bu. The powerful combat effectiveness of the Bingzhou Wolf Cavalry is mainly based on Lu Bu. As long as Lu Bu can be contained, it will be easy to defeat the Wolf Cavalry.
Too much."
Experts from the Military Advisor Alliance studied a large amount of historical materials, combined with the combat methods of the lower border county rangers in the late Han Dynasty, and made a lot of arguments and conjectures about the combat capabilities and methods of Lu Bu's Bingzhou Wolf Cavalry.
Due to Lu Bu's outstanding personal abilities, his bellicose character, and the support of a large amount of historical data, experts finally selected three of the combat methods after sifting through dozens of plans and guesses.
No matter which of the combat habits Lu Bu actually had, experts developed corresponding established cracking strategies based on their characteristics and taught them to Liu Bian.
Liu Bian suddenly became enlightened, exhaled a long breath, and became more confident: "Thank you for the expert's guidance, I will arrange the relevant matters as soon as possible."
Although the combat methods of each army have their own characteristics, since they are cavalry after all, there are still certain similarities. Some of the preparations made previously for the local cavalry camp can be used to deal with the wolf cavalry.
This work seems very complicated, but in fact, Liu Bian has already completed most of the work. Now he only needs to prescribe the right medicine according to the characteristics of Lu Bu's Bingzhou Wolf Cavalry.
"Um!"
The Military Advisor Alliance simply responded: "Now we are waiting for the news from Xun Yu. No matter what state Xu Rong and Lu Bu are in, experts have corresponding combat plans. It is just fine-tuning at best."
Liu Bian really admired the experts from the Military Advisor Alliance.
They will analyze the enemy, conduct extensive and repeated demonstrations, and then formulate response strategies for different situations based on the analysis and demonstration results to ensure that they always grasp the overall situation.
When Xun Yu was mentioned, Liu Bian suddenly became nervous. He frowned and glanced at the candlelight in the tent, thinking: "Teacher, Xun Yu has been gone for so long. Logically speaking, he should have come back long ago, but there is no news yet.
, will something happen?"
"It's possible."
The Military Advisor Alliance did not hide anything, but immediately explained: "But the probability of Xun Yu being killed, based on the current situation, is less than 8.39%."
"But if Xun Yu is really killed by Xu Rong and Lu Bu is defeated, Master Bian will directly send an army to crush him. With the current strength of Dagu Pass, the probability of being able to survive for five days is less than 24.3%."
Well......
Liu Bian was a little confused when he heard this: "Teacher, how did you get these data? This is a practical problem, not a mathematical problem such as probability."
The Military Advisor Alliance paused for a moment, and finally said: "Actually, I don't quite understand it. Experts just say that this event analysis method combines many disciplines such as logic, probability, statistics, etc., and is a semi-quantitative analysis method.
"
"However, judging from the current use results, whether it is the selection and formulation of the original escape plan, or the success rate of deducing Bian Ye's identity as a fake Li Ru, all prove that it is reliable."
It is worth mentioning that although experts gave Liu Bian relatively few suggestions, in fact, they had a particularly heavy workload behind the scenes. After all, they had to master and deduce every detail before they could finally form a plan.
For example, during the Luoyang escape, there were actually seven or eight active escape plans. It was only with the information provided by Shi Zixuan, Shi A and others that the success rate of the culvert escape plan reached more than 80%, and then the one was finally selected.
This kind of plan.
If you want to improve the success rate of a plan, you must eliminate ambiguous situations as much as possible and greatly increase the possibility of developing in a certain direction, so that you can better determine the plan.
It's true at this moment.
Experts must wait for the information provided by Xun Yu to rule out certain possibilities, thereby greatly improving the accuracy of the plan. Only when the certainty reaches more than 80% can they dare to put it into practice.
In this way, even if an accident does occur, it should not reverse the development of the entire incident. Just like during the escape plan, Li Ru's move to directly block Luoyang was unexpected, but it was still successful in the end!
This is science!
Although Liu couldn't understand logic, statistics, probability, psychology, etc., the expert's event reasoning model must have been scientifically verified.
"Well......"
Liu Bian was confused after hearing this, and shrugged awkwardly: "The books will be used when they are needed. I advise all netizens who are watching the live broadcast to study hard and don't waste your time."
Liu Bian’s heartfelt advice once again ignited netizens in the live broadcast room:
"That's right! I feel like my college education was in vain."
"To be honest, I feel like I learned more while watching the live broadcast than I did during school."
"It's not that bad. Experts are currently making plans for iron and steelmaking. I dived in the group and really learned a lot."
"There are also improvements in weapons in our group, and I have learned a lot."
"Learned knowledge +1"
"+2"
"+10086"
"..."
While many netizens were discussing it.
"Report—!"
suddenly.
A long announcement sounded outside the tent.
Liu Bian raised his eyes and looked.
But then, a guard came into the tent, leaned over and said, "Your Highness, the military advisor is back."
Liu Bian was delighted and waved his hand hurriedly: "Quick, let him come in."
The guard nodded: "No."
Immediately.
He bowed and left the tent.
Not long after, Xun Yu opened the curtain and walked in. He stepped forward and bowed his head: "Your Highness."
Liu Bian hurriedly waved his hand to interrupt and motioned for him to take a seat: "If Wen Ruo doesn't have to be polite, I will feel at ease when you come back."
Xun Yu was moved in his heart: "Thank you for your concern, Your Highness."
Liu Bian ordered his left and right people to make tea, exchanged a few simple greetings, and then went straight to the topic.
After listening to Xun Yu's detailed process report, Liu Bian was even more impressed by Xun Yu's eloquence. Even if he was in danger, he could always defend his dignity and even use words to sow discord between the two parties.
"Wen Ruo, thank you for your hard work."
Liu Bian felt sorry for the other party from the bottom of his heart.
Although Xun Yu finally returned safely, the process was tantamount to walking away from the gate of hell.
If Xun Yu hadn't been more skilled, he might have sent back a corpse.
"This is Yu's duty, why bother?"
"but......"
Xun Yu pinched a strand of beard under his chin and said with great interest: "In the end, it was Xu Rong who sent us out of Dagong Pass, rather than Lu Bu sending someone out. It is indeed a bit unexpected."
"This proves..."
Xun Yu frowned slightly and secretly speculated: "Xu Rong and Lu Bu have not reached an agreement. The two are still deeply conflicted, and even greater conflicts may break out because of this matter."
"On the surface, this matter is indeed good news for us, but I always feel that something is not right. If Xu Rong fails to reach an agreement with Lu Bu and lets me come back, wouldn't it be like letting the tiger go home?"
"According to common sense..."
Xun Yu exhaled a breath and said softly: "Even if you want to let me wait until I come back, it should be early tomorrow morning when His Highness leads the troops to Dagong Pass and uses the general situation to force Lu Bu to submit."
"In this way, at least Lu Bu will not vent his anger on Xu Rong. It will only deepen his hatred for your highness. This will be more conducive to the stability of Dagu Pass."
Liu Bianshen nodded in agreement: "It makes sense. Could it be that there is another deeper meaning behind Xu Rong's move?"
Xun Yu still frowned: "Your Highness, on the way back, Xun Yu carefully recalled the entire process of today's Dagu Pass. Xu Rong and Lu Bu do have many conflicts, but they are still not irreconcilable."
"I thought..."
Xun Yu saluted solemnly: "There is indeed a profound meaning behind Xu Rong's move."
Liu Bian asked tentatively: "Oh? What's the meaning?"
"Use the plan to your advantage."
Xun Yu said with great solemnity: "Xu Rong is sure that if I return to Guangcheng Pass, the discord between the two sides will be known to His Highness. As a result, the contradiction between the two sides will intensify, and it is reasonable for Lu Bu to do something outrageous."
among.”
"And if Lu Bu comes to fight alone, His Highness will naturally give him a profound lesson. However, Lu Bu is defeated and His Highness takes advantage of the victory to pursue him. At this time, Xu Rong sets an ambush halfway and will definitely defeat His Highness in one fell swoop."
"In this case..."
At this point, Xun Yu said that his thoughts were completely open: "Our army has lost its troops and generals, its vitality is severely damaged, and it is unable to attack Dagong Pass. Xu Rong will have enough confidence to support Dong Zhuo's arrival."
"After all, Xu Rong knows very well that the war against Dong is in full swing and Dong Zhuo is struggling to deal with it. Now is the time when the Allies have the best chance of winning. Your Highness will never give up this opportunity."
"Rather than passively defending, it is better to take the initiative. If they win by chance, there is still the possibility of delaying time or even turning defeat into victory. But if they insist on holding on, they will not last five days!"
Liu Bian was deeply impressed. Wang Zuozhi's talent was indeed well-deserved.
It is possible to deduce such an incredible plan through such details.
Liu Bian took advantage of the situation and asked: "If this is really the case, where does Wen Ruo think Xu Rong would set up an ambush?"
Xun Yu paused and shook his head: "It's difficult to determine. After all, there are ambushes everywhere along the way from Dagong Pass to Guangcheng Pass. If you want to determine the location of Xu Rong's ambush based on this, Xun Yu really can't do it."
"Um."
Liu Bian did not embarrass Xun Yu and said calmly: "Wen Ruo has worked hard. Let's leave it like that for today. We will discuss it again tomorrow morning. You can go back and rest first."
Xun Yu stood up and saluted: "I'll take my leave."
Immediately.
He bowed and left the tent.
Liu Bian frowned and asked tentatively: "Teacher, do experts have any thoughts on this? I am confused now. I always feel that what Xun Yu said is reasonable, but it is a bit unbelievable."
"Master Ben."
Then, the voice of the Military Advisor Alliance sounded: "Based on Xun Yu's intelligence, experts conducted another deduction based on the original strategy. The probability that there is a conspiracy behind Xu Rong's move is 82.4%, and the probability that it is forced is only 13.6%."
"There are twelve reasons for the conspiracy. I will briefly mention two. One is the analysis of Xu Rong's character. He is cautious by nature, considers problems comprehensively, and has a good overall view."
"Xu Rong ignored the situation at Dagu Pass and Lu Bu's feelings and let Xun Yu back privately. This is contrary to his character and the conspiracy index is as high as 91.3%;"
"Furthermore, judging from the rationality, Lu Bu and Xu Rong are at odds, and Lu Bu is in control of the people. They are just on duty for a shift. How can they be let go by Xu Rong so easily? There are too many uncertain factors, but the process is extremely smooth, and the conspiracy index is as high as
88.5%;”
Hiss~~~
Liu Bian suddenly sat up straight: "So, Xun Yu's guess is correct?"
The Alliance of Military Advisors replied: "It is very likely to be correct, and according to the final analysis of experts, the possibility that Xu Rong took advantage of the contradiction between the two to lure the enemy deeper and set up an ambush halfway is as high as 76.3%!"
"This one ranks the highest among the conspiracy possibilities deduced by experts, and is 26.5% higher than the second place of 'paralyzing the debater, showing that he can't do it', which can be said to be far behind the other possibilities!
"
"Although......"
The Military Advisor Alliance added: "According to experts' standards, it has not yet reached 80% of the requirements, but it can form a preliminary plan and prepare corresponding countermeasures according to the ideas."
"But teacher!"
Liu Bian took a deep breath and said softly: "Can experts analyze which road Xu Rong will set up an ambush on?"
The Military Advisor Alliance immediately said: "According to the current situation of Xu Rong's troops, the infantry has suffered heavy losses, with the Shesheng Battalion and the Yueqi Battalion being its main forces. The places where they will ambush will definitely be dominated by the Shesheng Battalion and the Yueqi Battalion."
"Currently, there are only three terrains that are conducive to ambush by these two arms. The first one is Goat Pass, with an ambush probability of 68.6%. The Shesheng Battalion controls the commanding heights, and the main attack is arrow rain, supplemented by infantry raids.
Cavalry is of little use."
"The second one is Xiewanggou, with an ambush probability of 69.7%. It is conducive to the back and forth operations of the Yueqi battalion. It is also the main battlefield of the Bingzhou Wolf Cavalry. The cooperation between the two sides will increase the power exponentially. However, the Shesheng battalion and the infantry battalion will be gone.
usefulness."
"As for the third one, it is the valley near Niuzui Mountain. The probability of setting up an ambush is 81.6%. It has a commanding height where the Shesheng Battalion and the Infantry Battalion can fully play their role. The terrain in the valley is flat and suitable for cavalry to charge. Once the mountain pass is blocked, the door will be closed.
Beat the dog.”
Damn it!
Liu Bian was so impressed that he couldn't help nodding his head in secret praise.
but......
He was also a little curious and tried to ask: "Teacher, why is the third probability so high? It is actually second and first, a full ten percentage points higher?"
The Military Advisor Alliance explained: "Because the first two have fatal flaws! For example, the first Goat's Pass, the Yueqi Camp, and the Wolf Cavalry don't have much room to play, but they are the real main force of the opponent."
"As for the second Scorpion King Valley, the terrain there is very special and it is obviously prepared for cavalry. If Xu Rong sets the ambush point here, it will easily arouse suspicion and the success rate will be too low."
"Only the third Niuzui Mountain!"
The Military Advisor Alliance said with great certainty: "It is a relatively balanced ambush point that can give full play to the characteristics of various military units in Dagu Pass, and once successful, the probability of annihilating the opponent is as high as 92.1%!"
So awesome!
Liu Bian was so impressed that he fell to the ground.
It is indeed a team composed of experts. It is well-founded and clear at a glance.
The Military Advisor Alliance continued: "Master Bian, the experts are currently reviewing the plan to break the situation. You should summon everyone at any time to prepare relevant matters in advance."