As we all know, Japan is a small country and its people are aggressive.
The combination of these two factors has contributed to the Japanese people's extremely high desire for expansion. Their dream is to break through the small island and become a mainland country.
However, given Japan's weak national strength, they themselves knew that they could never engage in a head-on struggle with a big country. Fighting based on resources and size would inevitably lead to failure, so the Japanese adopted such a fighting strategy: gambling.
Moreover, it is a big gamble, and a gamble is a bet on the fate of the country.
There have been several very famous gambling behaviors in the history of Japan. If you lose, you will lose everything and even your pants. If you win, you will marry Bai Fumei as CEO.
A perfect explanation of the coexistence of risks and opportunities.
The first was the Sino-Japanese War of 1894-1894. Japan invested a lot of money. The emperor’s personal property was used to build the navy. Through this war, Japan became the number one in Asia. Once it failed, it would almost go bankrupt.
But Japan finally won the bet and received 200 million taels of silver, which it then used to develop education and build a navy, laying the groundwork for continued gambling.
The second time is naturally the upcoming Russo-Japanese War. For Japan, if it wins this war, it will join the ranks of the great powers; if it loses, it may even face the fate of national subjugation.
Li Yu glanced at the ronin behind Toushan Man. He must have a gun and a knife on his waist. He was about to take it out just now, but after taking a look at the outline, he knew it was a revolver.
Li Yu asked: "Can I borrow Mr.'s gun?"
Ronin glanced at Touyama Manchu, who thought for a moment and said, "Take it out."
Li Yu smiled and said: "It doesn't matter if you remove the bullet."
The ronin took out the bullet and put the gun on the table.
Li Yu continued: "You want to fight with Russia, and there happens to be a game in Russia called Russian Roulette. This game is a big gamble. Only one bullet is put in the gun, and after random rotation, the trigger is pulled towards the head. If
If you don't get shot, you will get a huge jackpot. After all, you have placed your biggest bet - your life and fortune."
Although Touyama Manchu didn't know much mathematics, he was also a smart man. He quickly guessed Li Yu's metaphor from his words. Now Japan is the man with the revolver.
Tou Shanman said: "Sir, continue speaking."
Li Yu said: "I can state directly that mathematically speaking, shooting first and then shooting is the same, and the probability of being shot is one-sixth. However, in the current situation, you have obviously fired one shot.
And he was not shot; if he were shot again, the probability of being shot would not be one-sixth, but expanded to one-fifth."
It involves some determination of conditional probability, but the current situation is not a conditional probability situation.
Tou Shanman didn't know much about probability, so he just made a rough guess: "Your Majesty means that the probability of being shot will become greater and greater in the future."
Li Yu said: "That's right, until he was shot in the end."
Toushan Manman's eyebrows were tightly knitted, but he soon relaxed: "This world is cruel, and we will not retreat since we have chosen. But Your Majesty is indeed aware of the subtleties. Although he didn't say anything, it sounded to me like
Everything has been said. As a scholar, I can see clearly the complicated situations in the world and give such vivid examples. I really admire him."
Tou Shanman is indeed a man with a good brain, but whether he is smart or not and his personality are two completely different things and do not go hand in hand.
Like many Japanese upper-class people, he has so much self-confidence that he doesn't believe he will lose.
Li Yu said: "Mr. Toushan is overly praised."
Tou Shanman suddenly asked again: "I also want to ask, if you turn around once and then shoot every time, what will be the difference?"
He actually asked a good question.
Li Yu said: "If that is the case, the probability of being shot by latecomers will become lower and lower, and the probability of being shot will become an infinite polynomial, but convergent series."
Generally speaking, the probability of being shot first is 1/6, and then it is 5/6 raised to the nth power and multiplied by 1/6, which must be smaller and smaller. (Because the conditional probability needs to be considered every time, before
The probability of missing is 5/6).
Toushan Man did not understand the concept of "convergence" and "series" in the second half of Li Yu's sentence, but he understood that Li Yu mentioned that the probability of being shot would become lower and lower in the future, so he said: "In this way, wouldn't the form not be the same?"
As it gets better and better, the road will become wider and wider.”
Li Yu said: "It is a pity that this situation requires reshuffling the cards every time, but the world will not completely reshuffle the cards casually. Everyone is competing. Even I think the first scenario is too optimistic, because others
The gun I gave you might not have six bullet holes, but five or even four."
Toushan opened his mouth wide. In this case, the situation would be very tragic. The probability of being shot was really too high.
But Toyama Mitsuru quickly calmed down: "I think the Japanese Empire is protected by Amaterasu, and there are so many loyal warriors. I believe there are not six bullet holes, but sixteen or twenty-six."
Li Yu was noncommittal.
It is difficult to persuade the Japanese, especially at this time, there are many extreme people in Japan.
Moreover, even in the 21st century, Japan still wants to gamble on its national destiny.
An example is the automobile industry. Although new energy has many visible problems, it is already a general trend.
However, Japan considered its own geographical conditions and chose to bet on hydrogen energy.
Although to be honest, hydrogen energy is indeed more environmentally friendly, but you have to tell me how hydrogen comes from first.
Water turns into hydrogen?
Furthermore, Japan has a large number of patents on hydrogen energy. Once spread, Japan will indeed become a leader in the automotive industry.
However, if you study carefully, you will find that although Japan has many patents on hydrogen energy, they are basically concentrated in hydrogen storage and transportation.
The most critical hydrogen production is not available.
Everyone knows that the cost of producing hydrogen is extremely high and the risks are great. Japan has essentially left this big problem to Europe, the United States and China.
If one of the European and American parties breaks through the technical difficulties of hydrogen energy, Japan can collect money for subsequent promotion.
This abacus was struck so loudly that it was heard even across the ocean, at the White House, the Elysee Palace, the Forbidden City, and Buckingham Palace.
Everyone is not stupid.
It can only be said that even if hydrogen energy has prospects, it will not be commercially available on a large scale for at least ten years or even decades.
But the Japanese seem to be used to gambling, whether it is limited by historical factors, geographical factors, or cultural factors.
Japan has several world-class automobile manufacturers, but none of them entered new energy sources early. It is already too late now.
The train will arrive in Changchun soon, and Tou Shanman must get off here, otherwise when he arrives in Harbin, there will be Russians everywhere, and his movement will be very restricted.
Tou Shanman looked out the window and asked Li Yu solemnly again: "If your Majesty continues to remain neutral, I think we will meet again. When you come back by this train, I will still be in the northeast to greet you.
"
From what this guy said, it seems that the Northeast is really within his grasp.
Li Yu said: "At that time, there were probably tens of thousands of Russian troops coming on the train."
Tou Shanman said with full confidence: "With distant relations and close attacks, the Japanese Empire at least will not lose to them in the art of war."
"Beep——"
The long whistle sounded and the train entered Changchun Station.
Toushanman stood up and said, "Mr. Li Yu, we will meet again later."
It is very likely that they will come to visit them again in the future, and they will not be able to avoid them even if they want to, so Li Yu had no choice but to reply: "See you later."
The train stops take a long time. After all, there is only one main line in Northeast China, so the loading and unloading time is very long. There is no mechanized equipment, and many tasks must be done manually.
When the train continued to move, Li Yu looked at the land outside the window in trance.
Lu Bicheng on the side looked at Li Yu's melancholy expression and said: "I heard from Master Yan that back then Li Zhongtang had made a strategy to drive away tigers and devour wolves. Let the two tigers of Japan and Russia fight. Is it possible to receive the favor of the fisherman?"
profit?"
Li Yu smiled bitterly and said: "Driving the tiger to devour the wolf? At this time and the other, Xun Yu proposed this time to Cao Cao, and he could already hold the emperor in power and order the princes. But now what can we do in the face of Japan and Russia? The so-called 'driving the tiger'"
The word "drive" naturally requires the ability to drive tigers. But now that I am just a fat chicken, should I pluck my feathers and bring an iron pot and sit in front of them to drive tigers and devour wolves?"
Lu Bicheng had read history, but like most people nowadays, he did not understand the general situation of the world. After all, the authorities were confused, so he asked: "What should the court do?"
"What should we do?" Li Yu sighed, "Let's think about how to become stronger first. In the face of absolute strength, any strategy is like a child playing tricks to deceive the old man, and it is of no use. That's why I said to drive the tiger to devour it.
The metaphor of a wolf is not appropriate. Instead, it is more like the fight between Chen Youliang and Zhu Yuanzhang in Jiangnan at the end of the Yuan Dynasty and the beginning of the Ming Dynasty. They were fighting over who was finally qualified to eat the big fat meat of the Yuan Dynasty."
Lu Bicheng understood: "We are just meat on the chopping board."
Li Yu sighed: "Absolutely. There is a saying that a first-rate country is a chess player, a second-rate country is a chess piece, and a third-rate country is the chessboard. If you cannot be a chess player, you will not be able to use any strategy."
Lu Bicheng was also very aware: "Can't we be so desperate?"
Li Yu smiled bitterly again and said: "If I insist on saying so, the conflict between Japan and Russia can only slightly ease the situation in the Northeast and slow down the pace of foreign occupation."
But the strategy of exchanging space for time did not make much sense to the Qing court.
The Qing court didn't even dare to let go of this war, so it just watched others fight in their own homes, which was very humiliating.
However, Sino-Japanese relations actually got better afterwards.
After the Russo-Japanese War, some students studying in Japan, such as Lu Xun, became alarmed because of Japan's populism and discrimination against Chinese people. However, generally speaking, China's friendship with Japan was still improving at that time.
In addition, some people discuss things like what would happen if Russia wins. In fact, looking at the situation, we know that Britain, France, the United States and other countries are not willing to see Russia win; they also do not want Japan to win too easily, or even if Japan wins easily, it will definitely
Britain and France will find an opportunity to bleed.
Russia is still the ideal main force in the confrontation with Germany and Austria on the Western Front. Balance of power and mutual restraint are what the current world leaders Britain and France want to see.
If the Qing Dynasty could show some ability and willingness to fight against Japan and Russia, Britain would most likely give appropriate support to the Qing Dynasty and Japan and Russia to bleed each other, but it can only be said that the Qing Dynasty itself was too rotten, really rotten to the core.