Chapter 199: The National Grain Production Reduction, Jiangnan Dafeng
August.
In fact, it is also an extremely important harvest season.
Compared with the important matters of agricultural harvesting and returning grains to warehouses, everything else is trivial.
But the situation in Daming this year is different.
The "Oriental Times" prediction in March this year turned out to be completely correct.
Severe drought in the north and severe floods in the south!
During the current harvest season in August, the grain production in the northern region has been severely reduced. Even though the court attaches great importance to it, repeatedly issued orders, and adopted many drought-resistant measures, a rough estimate is that Henan's grain production is reduced by about 80%, Shaanxi's production is reduced by 72%, and Shanxi's production is reduced by 65%.
%, Hebei's production has been reduced by 45%, and Shandong's production has been reduced by about 30%.
The total population of these five provinces is about 80 million. In previous years, the food self-sufficiency rate has generally reached about 70%, but this year the overall food production has decreased by more than 50%.
The food self-sufficiency rate is expected to drop to less than 40%.
Based on the calculation, a normal person needs at least three stones (375 kilograms) of food per year.
There will soon be a food gap of more than 144 million stone. Even if all measures are taken to reduce food consumption and barely guarantee that one person will not starve to death, the food gap will still be at least 100 million stone.
As for the southern region, affected by floods, grain production in Huguang, Jiangxi, Zhejiang and other places has been reduced by about 10 to 20%. However, the south is warm and has a lot of arable land. Coupled with the promotion of high-yielding crops such as corn and sweet potatoes, it can fully
By leveraging the potential of dry land, there is no problem in ensuring self-sufficiency even if food production decreases.
Sichuan, the Land of Abundance, and Guangdong and Guangxi have a bumper harvest this year, so they have the ability to export a lot of surplus grain. However, because of the long distance, there is no big profit from selling grain, and water from far away cannot save the fire near.
Therefore, if there is no place or some way to fill the food gap of at least 100 million dan.
In the northern region of the Ming Dynasty, there will definitely be starvation everywhere, tragedies of cannibalism, and even large-scale peasant uprisings.
According to the normal historical trend, all the above situations will happen, which will deal a heavy blow to the crumbling Ming Dynasty and make the situation more imminent and dangerous.
"Oriental Times" wrote a special article to deduce this, and wrote all the worst and tragic scenes. Emperor Zhu Youjian was sweating profusely and his back was soaked, and he did it for several nights in a row.
Nightmare.
Fortunately, on August 30th, the front page headline of "Oriental Times" [Grains returned to warehouses, Jiangnan has achieved a bumper harvest!] finally made Zhu Youjian feel reassured. It was like taking a reassurance pill that it was easy to cure.
The problem with nightmares.
Great harvest in Jiangnan!
This news report said that through the unremitting efforts of Xujiazhuang and the hard work of countless farmers and ordinary people, despite the mild drought in South Zhili this year, the Jiangnan region overcame various difficulties and still achieved an unprecedented bumper harvest!
Not only did grain production not decrease, but it increased by more than 30% compared to last year!
Among them, the total output of rice is 272 million shi (the planting area is about 50 million acres).
The total output of wheat is 168 million shi (the planting area is about 40 million acres).
The total output of corn is 151 million shi (the planting area is about 30 million acres).
The total potato output is 300 million shi (the planting area is about 10 million acres).
The total output of sweet potatoes is 200 million shi (the planting area is about 8 million acres).
The total output of beans, sorghum, peanuts, millet and other miscellaneous grains is 50 million shi (the planting area is about 20 million acres).
Adding all the above grains together, the total grain output in Jiangnan this year is 1.141 billion shi.
The total population of South Zhili is about 60 million. Even if each person consumes ten shi of food per year, they will only eat 600 million shi of food. They can export 541 million shi of food to the outside world, which can fully feed the entire northern Ming Dynasty.
population.
No matter how serious the drought is in the north, the Jiangnan region can ensure the stability of the entire north by relying on its own efforts, which can keep a person from starving to death and even keep his stomach full.
So after reading this report, every reader breathed a sigh of relief and felt reassured.
but!
The reality is far from being as simple as it seems. Even if the food production in the Jiangnan region is sufficient this year, there are three problems. If they are not solved, the food shortage situation in the north will still be extremely serious. In some food-deficit areas, there will still be
Possibility of starving to death.
First, the animal husbandry industry in the Jiangnan region has developed rapidly in recent years and consumes a large amount of grain. For example, this year's feed grain consumption for various pigs, cattle, sheep, chickens, ducks, and geese has exceeded 200 million shi.
There will only be more next year, and it will probably increase to 300 million stone.
This reduced the amount of surplus grain that could be exported to less than 300 million shi.
The second is the loss during transportation.
The so-called delivery of food for thousands of miles requires twice the amount of food transported. That is, to transport three shi of grain, two shi will be consumed on the way.
Of course, Xujiazhuang is now undergoing major road construction, and the road traffic conditions have been greatly improved. In addition, there are transportation tools such as four-wheeled carriages, which can reduce the loss to less than half.
That is to say, if grain is transported thousands of miles now, for every two stones of grain transported, at most one stone will be lost.
This means that more than 100 million shi of food can still be transported to the north, which can just solve the problem of food shortage in the north and ensure that there is enough food to eat.
But the big problem came at the end.
distribute!
If during the grain distribution process, unscrupulous merchants hoard large quantities of grain and sell grain at exorbitant prices; if officials become corrupt and misappropriate the grain rations belonging to the people; if grain does not arrive in time, or if the gentry does not allow grain to be sold at low prices, etc., the common people will
You will still be trapped in a hellish situation.
In view of the various dark current situations in various parts of the Ming Dynasty, I am afraid that these distribution problems will appear one after another. Even if the food transported from the south of the Yangtze River is enough, or even doubled, the people in the north may still starve to death and fall into abject poverty.
You will be forced to rise up, because your heart is so black and inhuman things are everywhere!
"Slander, this is slander and slander!"
The content of this paragraph made Zhu Youjian very angry. Countless officials and gentry also turned red and felt dissatisfied. But after calming down, they all had to admit that what was said in the article was correct. Although it was very harsh and unpleasant, but
This is the true situation of the Ming Dynasty.
In the distribution process, such situations do occur, and the interests of the people at the bottom cannot be guaranteed.
It’s just that what was said in the article was too ugly, too tactful, and simply devoid of any human feelings!
What's more, the profiteers, corrupt officials, and evil gentry in the article are only a very small group. Most of them still have conscience and morality, and they will never do anything to add insult to injury or make things worse. But the meaning of the article is as black as the crows in the world.
It's like knocking over a whole boat of people with one pole, it's really too one-sided.
However, at the end of this report, there was no hope for the officials and gentry of the Ming Dynasty. Instead, Xujiazhuang's solution to the northern famine was proposed.
One is that Xujiazhuang will take the lead and find a way to transport about 150 million shi of grain to the north of the Ming Dynasty (excluding road losses), and supply it to businessmen who have cooperative relations with Xujiazhuang at a relatively low price, but there is one
The condition is that the price of grain sold by merchants who cooperate with Xujiazhuang must not exceed the maximum price stipulated by Xujiazhuang, that is, the price of grain is limited.
If a partner violates the regulations and wants to make huge profits in food, Xujiazhuang will cancel the cooperation with it and be included in the blacklist. There will never be any possibility of cooperation in the future, and the reporter can become a new partner!
Xujiazhuang is not omnipotent and cannot control those profiteers, but its partners can still be restrained. In order to let the hungry people in the north have food to eat, Xujiazhuang is willing to be a bad guy and sing a bad role, even if it offends some partners.
Businessmen would not hesitate to do so.
Secondly, a "Recruitment Plan for Tens of Millions of Hungry People" was formulated.
Xujiazhuang will set up hundreds of rescue teams and go deep into the northern parts of the Ming Dynasty, such as Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Henan. It plans to recruit and help about 10 million hungry refugees and refugees, arrange jobs for them, provide them with livelihood, and get rid of their current predicament.
If you are unable to leave your hometown and do not want to leave too far, you can join in the infrastructure project of building bridges and roads.
If you feel that it is difficult to survive in your hometown and want to change the development environment, you can consider going to Shanxi to mine and become a free miner.
If you have an adventurous spirit, can take risks, and are willing to fight for great wealth, you can first go to Xujiazhuang, Jiangnan, and participate in relevant training, and then you will get follow-up arrangements.
That is to say, Xujiazhuang provides three roads, which are placed in front of millions of hungry people, and it is up to them to decide how to choose.
And this is the limit of what Xujiazhuang can do. If after providing 150 million shi of food and saving tens of millions of hungry people, a large number of people in the north of the Ming Dynasty still starve to death and rebel, then whose problem is it?
It goes without saying.
So after reading this article.
It aroused a lot of anger and dissatisfaction among the bureaucrats, gentry, literati and landlords of the Ming Dynasty:
"Why does Xujiazhuang treat us so badly?"
"Even without the help of Xujiazhuang, many people in Ming Dynasty would not have starved to death. We have the ability to solve the problem."
"The slander and slander have gone too far. I will never read this "Oriental Times" again."
"You are the only one who can do it at Xujiazhuang, so we must not be able to do it? I don't believe in this evil!"
"We must take action vigorously to not only prove that Xujiazhuang is wrong, but also that he is completely wrong!"
"The imperial court must also take action immediately to formulate a "Relief Plan for Thirty Million Hungry People" and allocate grain from Sichuan, Guangdong and Guangxi and other places with more grain. We must not fall behind Xujiazhuang!"
"Yes, Xu Jiazhuang not only slandered the imperial court, but also wanted to buy people's hearts and take away tens of millions of people? Xu Jiazhuang must not succeed in this matter! These people belong to the Ming Dynasty, and none of them are allowed to be abducted. We must find a way to stop them!
"
…
September 1st.
Harbor City, White Castle.
At a high-level meeting.
Xu Yuan asked Li Jindao, the person in charge of agriculture: "How much grain have we collected so far? Have we completed the grain storage target set at the beginning of the year?"
"The grain we have collected and stockpiled has reached 533 million shi, far exceeding the grain storage target of 300 million shi. Adding in the uneaten grain in the granary, the total grain reserve has reached 600 million shi.
! In other words, almost half of the food in the entire Jiangnan region is in our hands!"
Li Jin said with excitement in his tone.
Six hundred million stones?
This number made Xu Yuan's eyes light up and he felt very satisfied.
Enough.
This food was completely enough to support the implementation of all plans, which made him feel much more at ease.
However, Li Jin also introduced some not-so-good situations, that is, among the farmers from various places who cooperate with Xujiazhuang, there are always a small number of farmers who cannot withstand the temptation of high prices offered by other grain purchasers, or they keep too much grain privately.
He failed to abide by the cooperation agreement with Xujiazhuang and sold all the remaining grain to Xujiazhuang.
And the proportion of this type of farmers is not low, accounting for about 20%.
"Owner, should you blacklist these defaulting farmers and stop cooperating with them next year?"
Li Jin said angrily: "We provide them with high-quality seeds, fertilizers, and pesticides at low prices, help them solve irrigation problems, and even sell them farm tools on credit. Without our help, there would be no such a bumper harvest this year! And the food
The purchase price is not low, but these farmers have no conscience at all, only greed and cunning! If they are not severely punished, there will be more farmers imitating them next year, and in the end there will be no way to collect the food, and all will be lost to those
The unscrupulous merchants snapped it up and after all the hard work, it became someone else's wedding dress."
These words made Xu Yuan silent for a moment.
Are farmers cunning? There must be some cunning ones, but they are definitely only a minority.
Are farmers greedy? Greed certainly exists, but it is not the mainstream.
But it cannot be denied that these two types of farmers are absolutely common, even in large numbers. In some cases, they may occupy the majority and the mainstream, and even create shocking ignorance and evil.
even so.
Xu Yuan is also reluctant to impose punishment on these farmers, not because of his motherhood, but because of the limitations of the working people, which cannot be solved by punishment.
After thinking about it, he said: "After all, food is more important now, and this cannot lead to a reduction in food production. Let's do this. For those farmers who cooperate actively and behave honestly, we can sign long-term cooperation agreements with them and provide them with insurance services, even if
Even if there is a bad harvest, they will be given an income equivalent to that of a good year. In addition, the farmers with the best performance can be included in the priority list. When Xujiazhuang expands the village, they will be given priority to join the collective estate."
"In short, we would rather adopt positive incentives than impose any punishment. We must understand the limitations of these bottom workers."
"It's the owner of the village, I understand."
Li Jin said helplessly, "Hey, the owner of the village is too kind. If you have more contact with those cunning farmers, I am afraid that this practice will be changed immediately. Some people are poor. They really have their roots in poverty. They really are."
Hopelessly short-sighted.
"The Evil God"
But the village owner has arranged it this way, so we can only do as he said. I just hope that the food collected next year will not be much less than this year, otherwise we will really need to make major reflections and adjustments.