Chapter 854 I want to build a 210,000-story mage tower!
After optimizing the working methods, the progress of scanning and typing has been rapid. The next evening, Gretel was sitting in the center of the mage tower, frowning as he looked at the data pulled out by the SS.
The situation is very bad.
The April Flower has a displacement of 180 tons, a crew of 30, and 105 passengers. There are 26 crew members and 102 passengers on shore. The crew mortality rate is 13% and the passenger mortality rate is 3%.
The Silver Deer has a displacement of 150 tons, a crew of 25, and 58 passengers. There are 23 crew members and 54 passengers on shore. The crew mortality rate is 8% and the passenger mortality rate is 6.9%.
St. Mary's, with a displacement of 300 tons, a crew of 48, and 287 passengers. There were 41 crew members and 244 passengers on shore. The crew mortality rate was 14.5% and the passenger mortality rate was 15%.
Brig, with a displacement of 400 tons, a crew of 58, and 450 passengers. There were 50 crew members on shore, and 332 passengers. The crew mortality rate was 13.7%, and the passenger mortality rate was 26%.
All in all, the crew mortality rate is relatively constant, between 10% and 15%. The mortality rate does not increase with the increase in the number of passengers. It is speculated that it is related to the wind and waves of sea navigation, distress during operation, etc.;
The passenger fatality rate has increased significantly as the number of passengers/tonage increases.
"Touch SS, calculate the number of passengers/tonage and the passenger fatality rate of each cargo ship. Draw a scatter plot with the number of passengers/tonnage as the vertical axis and the passenger death rate as the horizontal axis."
"Boss, what is a scatter plot?"
"On the coordinate axis, mark the position of the corresponding data of each cargo ship. For example, the April Flower should be marked here..."
Grete used [Silent Phantom] to outline the coordinate axis, mentally calculated the number of passengers/ton, and clicked a point on the coordinate axis. He touched SS and was silent for about a second, and then responded:
"I understand, boss."
On the light screen, a coordinate axis that Gretel was familiar with was opened. The X axis, Y axis, calibrated values, began to apply black dots one by one. Two dots for one, ten dots for five, and three dots for twenty.
Ten or fifty...
The growth rate will soon reach the point where trypophobia will cause goosebumps all over the body just by looking at it.
And these densely packed black spots, in the first quadrant of the coordinate axis, outline a giant python with its head raised upward.
Probably, maybe, almost, when the number of passengers/ton exceeds 0.9, the mortality rate begins to rise sharply. When the number of passengers/ton exceeds 1, the mortality rate stabilizes at more than 20%...
20%!
Gretel once heard a member of the jury mention that during this great famine, the Kingdom of Kent would have to move about 200,000 people to the New World. And as Gretel saw on Aiolan Island, everyone was crowded together.
The bottom tank, dense transshipment conditions...
At the very least, the ship Gretel took when he came back was less than 300 tons. As for the passengers crowded in the bottom cabin, a casual glance would tell that there were definitely more than 300 people.
You don’t need to calculate carefully to know that the number of passengers/tonnage must exceed 1.
In other words, 20% of the 200,000 people and 200,000 starving victims will die on the long journey of two months one way!
Forty thousand people died!
Just thinking of this made Grete shudder. Forty thousand people, a 20% mortality rate, if it could be reduced to 10%, or even to 5%...
Even if it is reduced to 5%, in his concept, it is still outrageously high. What, 5% of people will die in a sea trip? The risk of this trip is too high, completely unacceptable!
However, even if it drops to 5%, of the 40,000 people, 30,000 can already survive.
Saving one life is better than building a seven-level pagoda. This time, I, Wu Gret Nordmark Chau, will build a 210,000-story mage tower!
Of course, how to reduce the mortality rate depends on the data. Gretel looked at the scatter plot carefully and was not very satisfied.
The python is dense in the middle, sparse around it, and scattered with many black spots. We can only see the general trend. How low can the number of passengers/ton be reduced, and the mortality rate can be reduced to 5%? 0.9? 0.8
?Or 0.7?
This requires more precise calculations.
In other words, this scatter plot should be made into a fitting curve. A smooth curve is much easier to see clearly than a dense scatter plot with a lot of scatter plots floating around it.
...it’s broken, how do you do the fitting curve? How should you do the regression analysis, and which formula should be applied?
I have learned this thing before, and I have used it when writing papers. The problem is that I don’t use it much after work. I have to use it every time, and I go back and read the book on the spot. In the past few years, I have not used it for a long time, and it is a little bit
I forgot...
Grete scratched his head, finally spread out his paper and pen, and honestly reviewed college mathematics and medical statistics. After struggling for a long time, he finally filtered out the required formulas, and then spent endless time to teach SS how to understand.
After adjusting it several times, a smooth curve finally appeared on the light screen projected by the SS.
"0.7..."
Grete frowned, clasping his hands behind his back, pacing back and forth in front of the light screen. According to this curve, to reduce the mortality rate to 10%, the ratio of passengers/tons should be below 0.9; and if it is to be reduced to 5%,
Then, the ratio must be below 0.7.
And if the ratio of the council's ships carrying disaster victims is generally above 1, it means that the council needs to pay an additional 50% in freight to transport these people. What is more troublesome than freight is transportation capacity.
There are only so many ships that can travel to the New World, and there are only so many captains and skilled sailors that can travel to the New World. Changes cannot be made, and the victims cannot be transported in time, and there will be a backlog in the kingdom, and there will be more extra ships.
question……
What else can be done?
Is there any other way to reduce their mortality rate?
Gretel was unconsciously fingering a logbook. Thanks to the regulations of the Parliament, every person who dies on the ship must be examined by the ship's doctor, the cause of death must be recorded, and signed and certified by the captain.
This makes the cause of death in the logbook relatively reliable, at least it will not make unnecessary falsifications...
"Touch SS, count the causes of death of all crew members and passengers, as well as the proportion of deaths caused by this factor." He took a long breath and ordered in a deep voice. Touch SS fell silent for a long time, and then a light screen appeared:
Gretel quickly stopped. Hey, different temples, different description methods and judgment ideas, as well as pharmacists, herbalists, barbers, carpenters, God knows who served as ship doctors, the records left behind really make people want to vomit!
"From fever to acute fever, everything is defined as fever. From diarrhea to dry abdominal pain, everything is defined as gastrointestinal disease." He ordered helplessly. Alas, despair, there is too little information, and it can only be classified simply like this...
…
The SS buzzed for a while, the light screen shook, merged, and refreshed again. The cause of death that appeared this time finally made Grete feel a little more comfortable, and his blood pressure was no longer so high.
Gretel watched attentively. In terms of the overall death rate, gastrointestinal diseases accounted for 28% and scurvy accounted for 15%, covering the top two causes of death.
"Touch SS, then press the number of passengers/ton, and count every 0.1 increase. Count each rank separately, and different causes of death!"
This time, the data is extremely exciting. When the number of passengers/ton reaches above 0.9, the probability of death from gastrointestinal diseases reaches 48%!
In other words, under these conditions, we can provide as much clean food and drinking water as possible, an appropriate supply of vegetables and sodium ascorbate, and if possible, basic medicines. In this way, we can reduce the mortality rate by an additional 63%!
In this way, the passenger fatality rate can be kept below 5%...and a full 30,000 people can be saved!
I built this 210,000-story mage tower!
****
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－－－－－－Digression－－－－－
1847 was a disastrous year. In that year, about 20% of the people who immigrated to the United States due to famine died on the way or just after arriving. This means that 40,000 people died, and most of them were
Strong young men. In comparison, when British ships carried African slaves to the United States in the 19th century, the mortality rate during the journey was only 9%.
Excerpted from A Rainbow over the Snowy Mountains’ notes on A Brief History of Race in America
I... I don't know what to say... Should I say that the British are too uncivilized, or should I say that the black slaves have too much vitality?