Chapter five hundred and ninety first prepare for the most difficult time
Having said this, he looked at Li Yanping and Guo Bingxun who were a little confused. Yang Zhen, who knew what they were thinking, said: "Old Li, Old Guo, do you think that the Germans, who have almost occupied the entire Europe, will let go of being harassed by them?" Is it considered a thorn in the side of the Soviet Union, which is the most resource-rich in Europe?"
Seeing both men shaking their heads, Yang Zhen sighed and said: "The German army has the best staff in the world, as well as the best officers and soldiers in the world. This was reflected in its campaign across Europe. It has been reflected. Their use of strategy and tactics has almost reached the pinnacle that an army can achieve."
"The true combat effectiveness of the Soviet army has been demonstrated through last year's Battle of Nomonhan and the Soviet attack on Finland. The quality of its officers, especially the quality of command officers and staff officers, is simply much worse than that of the Germans. Faced with an army with a population of just over one million and an active army of less than tens of thousands, the loss of troops will be hundreds of thousands."
"With the precise tactical vision of the Germans, it is impossible not to see the meaning contained in it. I don't know whether the suppression of counter-revolutionaries really purified the Soviet army, but I know that this kind of indiscriminate killing has great impact on an army. The harm may not be visible at ordinary times, but the consequences are quite serious on the battlefield."
"Although the Soviet army may achieve final victory by relying on the Soviet Union's land area and huge human resources. However, I feel that in the early days of the Soviet-German war, a major rout of the Soviet army was absolutely inevitable. One army was smashed to pieces. It takes time to regain maturity after losing the brain's army."
"It will take time for the Soviet generals to change the stubbornness in Stalin's character from immaturity to maturity. This time may not be too long, but for us, this period of time is a quite severe test. The Soviet army is too overwhelmed to take care of itself. , it is very likely that they will not take our feelings into consideration."
"Therefore, we must be prepared for foreign aid channels to be cut off in the early stages of the Soviet-German war. We must even deal with the fact that the Soviets are within the attack range of the Japanese navy in the so-called coastal border areas in the east. We do not want to face being attacked from both sides. strategic situation and proactively cut off our external channels."
"At that time, the Americans want to continue to assist us. But without transportation lines, how can those materials be transported in? Not only us, but also the battlefield in Guan Nei will face the same situation. Moreover, the Americans are not ready to completely fall out with the Japanese. At that time, what they can support us will be limited, and the scale will be controlled. At least until the two countries really start fighting, their assistance to us will only stay at a lower level."
"Our real opportunity is not now, but after the full-scale war between the United States and Japan breaks out. Once the Japanese and Americans enter a full-scale war, in order to reduce the pressure on the Japanese army, they will truly fully assist us. But now it is just We just hope that we can contain the momentum of the Japanese army moving south, disperse the strength of the Japanese army, and reduce the pressure on the United States and Britain in Southeast Asia."
After Yang Zhen finished speaking, Li Yanping and Guo Bingxun did not refute his analysis. Perhaps Li Yanping did not know the international situation very clearly. But for Guo Bingxun, who was in charge of intelligence, he agreed with Yang Zhen's analysis. With these words, the conflict between Japan and the United States seems to be great now, but it has not yet completely intensified.
However, in Guo Bingxun's view, as long as the Japanese army does not stop its southward expansion and completely dispels its southward momentum, it will be difficult for the two countries to really sit down and negotiate. The United States has now begun to impose an oil embargo on Japan. As an island country, it built its country with its navy. Japan is inseparable from oil, a modern military machine weapon.
Unless they are willing to withdraw their troops from mainland China in accordance with the requirements of the Americans. But this condition is really unacceptable to Japan, which has always been greedy and never vomits out what it eats. And for Japan, which mainly consumes oil and supplies products, it comes from the United States. For Japan, the American oil embargo is a fatal blow. Without oil and its products, Japan's modern equipment is just a pile of scrap metal.
Facing the imminent interruption of oil supply, the mainland and its occupied areas do not have any oil resources except the Soviet Union's small oil field on Sakhalin Island. In order to seize Southeast Asia, which is rich in oil reserves, Japan's momentum of going south is simply impossible to end. Unless the Americans end their oil embargo against Japan.
Only a fool would believe that the Japanese only occupied northern Vietnam simply to cut off China's foreign aid channels. Although the foreign aid channel from Haiphong in Vietnam to Guangxi, China is very important, it is only one of them, and because Guangxi is far away from the Japanese-occupied areas Guangdong is extremely close, and a large part of the Yunnan-Vietnam Railway is within the bombing range of Japanese bombers.
Although this route is also very important, its importance has been reduced now that the Burma Highway has been opened to traffic. If the Japanese army wants to completely cut off China's external material channels, it not only needs to occupy northern Vietnam. Unless they completely break up with the British They must turn against each other and capture Myanmar. Otherwise, it would be impossible for them to completely cut off China’s foreign aid channels.
Moreover, the Japanese did not have so many bombers to cut off the lifeline of this rear area. Although the Japanese army had occupied the coastal defense and completely cut off the Yunnan-Vietnam Railway, the nearly 20,000 trucks on the Yunnan-Burma Highway still maintained China's The situation of the Anti-Japanese War supported China's determination to fight on.
Occupying Southeast Asia, which has now almost become a terra nullius, can not only obtain the rich oil, tin ore and other strategic resources that the Japanese army urgently needs, but also completely cut off China's lifeline. For the Japanese army, the temptation is obviously greater than attacking the Soviet Union northward. , it is much more intense to occupy the barbaric land of Siberia, which is nothing but wood.
For Americans, except for the Philippines, which is their own colony, the rest of Southeast Asia is the colony of Britain, France and the Netherlands. Whether they are lost or not, the harm to them is not that great. But Americans will never tolerate the Japanese. There are abundant strategic resources there.
No one is willing to hand a sharp knife to a wolf that has bared its teeth. Smart Americans will not do such stupid things. Therefore, Americans have always regarded the Japanese's southward momentum as a threat to themselves. Threat. Especially when the war situation in Western Europe is already very unfavorable to its traditional ally, Britain.
If the Japanese invade Siberia, which is still a barren land with only forests except ice and snow, I believe that the Americans will not only not help them, but will definitely be happy to see it happen. Because the United States does not have a good impression of the Soviets. Japan is a hungry wolf that was fostered by itself and the British.
Of course, at this time, Guo Bingxun, including the Soviets themselves, did not know that the Ob River Basin in Western Siberia contained the Tyumen Oilfield, the largest oil field in later generations and one of the largest oil fields in the Soviet Union. Its maximum annual output reached 400 million The scale of tons is far greater than the Baku Oil Field in the Soviet Union's current Transcaucasus region. If the Tyumen Oil Field was discovered in advance, I am afraid that the Japanese, who are always accustomed to taking advantage of the situation, would not mind stabbing the Soviet Union in the back during its most difficult time.
Therefore, Guo Bingxun's judgment is consistent with Yang Zhen's on this point. They both believe that under the circumstances that the Japanese's southward momentum is already obvious, unless the Japanese army gives up the resources in Southeast Asia that are almost at their fingertips, the United States and Japan will It is inevitable for a country to go to war.
Especially for Guo Bingxun, who studied in France, he believes that now that Japan and Germany have concluded the so-called Entente and have become allies, a war between the United States and Japan will be inevitable. The reason is very simple. The geography of Americans Although they are located in the American continent, their roots are in Europe. Although the United States is a multi-ethnic country, they were once a British colony. And the mainstream figures in its upper class are all from the European continent.
Although there has been some unpleasantness with Britain in history after independence, for Americans who have always been realistic, Britain has always been their traditional ally. From the beginning of World War I to the present, the two countries have both fought and cooperated. In international relations, cooperation is far greater than struggle.
Americans will never sit back and watch Britain defeat, because the emergence of a strong, unified Europe is not in their interests. On the European battlefield, just like during World War I, it is only a matter of time before the United States joins the war. For the United States The Germans are very aware of this mentality of people. Therefore, even if the Japanese do not want to offend the United States, their allies will force them to join the war sooner or later.
Guo Bingxun knew very well that under the circumstances that the Americans would have to fight the Japanese sooner or later, as long as their troops still had the strength, they could still defeat the Japanese. In international relations, it is a custom that the enemy of the enemy is a friend, and the Americans will definitely increase their efforts. Give yourself a lot of aid to spread the pressure on the Japanese.
Regarding Yang Zhen's words, although I don't necessarily think that the Soviet Union and Germany will really fight. Because the relationship between the two countries is still very close, the German-made second-hand bombers transferred from Jiangbei are evidence. But more than two years ago The common fighting life made Guo Bingxun know that the young commander in front of him still had a very accurate vision on certain things.
Since he said that there will be a war between the Soviet Union and Germany sooner or later, we should be prepared for the worst. Then there is absolutely nothing wrong with following what he said. And even if the Soviet-German war does not break out, many things have been prepared in advance. It’s not a bad thing to make some contingency plans.
As for Li Yanping, his judgment on the international situation is far less experienced than that of Guo Bingxun. But he has an understanding that Yang Zhen always takes a long-term view when doing things, and what he does is only beneficial to the development of the army and will never There are disadvantages. As long as you do what he says, you will never go wrong.
Seeing that Li Yanping and Guo Bingxun agreed with him even though they didn't say it explicitly, Yang Zhen felt somewhat proud in his heart. His pride did not come from his so-called ability and judgment, but from his own actions. I am proud to have such a harmonious and unified leadership team.
He is proud to have such a political commissar who has great trust in him, and he is proud to have such a capable assistant. In later generations, Yang Zhen has seen many more troops, and the differences caused by the discord between the military and the government. He can have such a As a political commissar, how can we have such a capable chief of staff to coordinate our work?