One hundred and fifty-second section before and after
"Ren Yuan and I started to pay attention to this matter soon after the paper cotton first appeared. We also visited the original futures exchange including Qingyunlou Tea House. Speaking of which, Comrade Wu Mu was also placed in it.
Several people - of course, he was not trying to prevent financial risks, he was just worried about some conspiracy," Chuhe said.
"Generally speaking, there is nothing special about this matter. It can only be regarded as a bizarre product caused by the intertwining of market changes and human greed. It is very interesting and has great research value."
Li Shan was tired of hearing this and thought that your nonsense is over!
Chu He said that in fact, the signs of the paper cotton incident began much earlier than the opening of Wanguo. The time point was at the beginning of this year.
"...In fact, the origin is very simple. The demand for cotton cloth increased, which caused the market price to rise. What followed was a series of chain reaction increases in cotton yarn and cotton."
Since the Senate regained control of Guangzhou, the demand for cotton cloth has been expanding year by year. With the successive occupation of Guangdong and Guangxi and the continuous establishment of political institutions, various government agencies and factories have been moved northward and newly built, and the naturalized civilian class is also rapidly growing.
Expansion. The demand for "uniforms" has increased significantly.
Originally, this increase in demand was relatively mild, but the emergence of Nanyang Company changed this phenomenon.
The largest project of the Nanyang Company is the South Vietnam Development Plan. For this purpose, it will conduct the largest expedition since Operation Engine. It is expected that more than 20,000 immigrants will be sent to the South Vietnam area, and in the next five years, another 10,000 people will be immigrated every year.
.
An immigrant of this scale needs a huge amount of food and supplies, especially the basic necessities cotton cloth. Although Nanyang Company adopts a small batch and multi-batch method to avoid large-scale purchases affecting market stability, the market price of cotton cloth
It still rose in response, and it has risen from the beginning of the year to now.
To be honest, Li and Zou are so optimistic about the cotton textile industry, which is largely affected by this market trend.
"...This is the data from the "Business Monthly Report" published by the statistics department since October last year. We have transcribed the statistics related to the cotton textile industry - let me explain here that the relevant figures are not necessarily accurate, but they are approximate
The situation can still be seen. The transaction volume of cotton yarn is too small and can be ignored, but the price and transaction volume of flowers and cloth are increasing month by month. This year the amplitude is even greater. If the average price in October last year is used as the base price,
The monthly increase in November, December and January exceeded 5%. By February, it was completely out of control. The monthly increase in cotton cloth exceeded 7.5%. By March, it reached 10%. If
Had it not been for the increase in Songjiang cotton imports, the increase in cotton prices would have been even greater. Even so, compared with October last year, the average price of cotton prices in May this year has exceeded 50%. This is quite an astonishing figure.
The first reason is that Nanyang Company's overseas development steps have accelerated and it needs to reserve more clothing, tents and other cotton products; the second reason is that the Guangdong and Guangxi strategy has entered the final stage. The National Army, which was originally hastily organized, will be fully reorganized, and the Fubo Army will also need to be reorganized.
To rest and recuperate, their military uniforms must be updated, and these military supplies alone involve more than 100,000 sets of military uniforms.
In addition to the military, the Nanyang Company, and sporadic "government procurement," there was one key element: inflation.
Since the Senate issued new coins in Guangzhou, the amount of silver dollar bonds has been continuously increased. The financial system has maintained the basic credit of silver dollar bonds through various means, but inflation is not subject to human will.
Social prices are rising quietly.
Fortunately, the necessities of life in this time and space are limited. Through the unique long-distance communication and transportation methods in this time and space, the Senate can quickly grasp the food situation in various places and quickly stabilize the price of food, thus maintaining a stable situation.
"In this way, the surge in cotton products actually has a lot to do with inflation..."
"Yes, one reason is the contradiction between supply and demand, and the other is inflation." Ren Youzi nodded and said, "It can be said that the current market prosperity and high prices are actually false. You only need to read the relevant reports to know that currently
The biggest customer in the market is the Senate itself. And this kind of bulk purchase will not last long. Nanyang Company has begun to reduce its purchase volume this month, and then Lianqin's purchase volume will also be reduced. In the long run, the cotton textile market
There will be a period of decline. If we want to achieve new growth, I am afraid we can only find ways to export cotton cloth."
"Down with Indian cloth and Songjiang cloth."
"That's right. In fact, the current cotton dilemma is precisely because these two giants are still very active and have cut off cotton from upstream." Chu He said, "Let's continue the topic."
Because the market price of cotton cloth has risen, the market price of cotton has also risen accordingly. The supply of goods has become tight. Originally, the company that supplied cotton to the market was "Fabric Cloth Company". This "Fabric Cloth" is not printed cloth, but "cotton, cotton cloth".
Meaning. There is often a situation of "price but no market" in flower cloth shops, and the supply of cotton is intermittent. In order to ensure that their own machinists can have cloth for weaving, some cloth dealers began to prepay the goods and purchase "warehouse sheets".
At first, this method of prepaying goods was just a "deposit" in business. The buyer paid a certain amount of deposit and how many tons of cotton to buy. After the goods arrived, the deposit was deducted according to the market situation and the balance was settled and the goods could be taken delivery. It was nothing more than a way for the buyer to guarantee himself.
commitment to the supply of goods.
Gradually, some people saw the speculative nature of it. So, the first full pre-purchase order was released. The pre-purchase order did not settle the balance payment according to the price at the time of delivery, but paid the full amount directly in advance according to the current market price.
Payment will be made and delivery will be made after the goods arrive.
This approach is essentially to avoid the risk of future price increases or supply cuts, and is a common practice in business. Not only do the Dutch do this, but also sericulture farmers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang also perform similar operations.
"Logically speaking, this is not a new thing. It is nothing more than betting on the rise and fall of expected future prices. But I don't know which smart person came up with a way to endorse the transfer." Chu He said with a smile, "This person I
I really want to get to know him and ask him how he came up with it."
Once it can be transferred, this warehouse receipt has the attributes of speculation and speculation. Especially when the cotton market continues to increase, you can buy a warehouse receipt, increase the price and resell it. You can make money immediately.
.
Once such a short and quick way to make money was discovered, it immediately became the focus of speculation. All of a sudden, all the fabric shops began to sell warehouse receipts.
"At the beginning, the warehouse order was very standardized. It had clear issue numbers, delivery dates, quantity and grade of cotton to be delivered. Moreover, each fabric shop had some 'predictions' when they found out, and they had a rough idea of their future.
I had a good idea of how much goods I could deliver, and the number of warehouse receipts I issued was still limited. But later, everyone became jealous of this costless transaction..."
Later, things became more and more chaotic. Originally, only flower and cloth shops issued warehouse receipts. As the speculation trend became more and more intense, cloth shops, silk and satin shops, embroidery shops... as long as shops related to textiles rushed to issue cotton warehouse receipts.
, and later the cotton yarn inventory appeared.
"... Now there are even people who just give it a name without even having a physical store. They claim to be XX Store or XX Bank, and issue the warehouse receipt themselves - and they can actually sell it like this. It reminds me of Hainan Island Ninety Years
The real estate bubble of the 1990s. At that time, a land transfer contract could earn hundreds of thousands upon resale..."
"We'll talk about this later!" Li Shan began to lose his temper. These two people had such a clear grasp of the situation, but they actually stood by and watched until now? He couldn't blame them, "What should we do now?"
"Well, in short, the situation is getting worse," Chu He said. "All the participants have actually known by this time that the cotton they buy and sell not only has nothing to do with cotton, it has nothing to do with fabrics at all. It is already pure
It’s a speculative game, beating the drum and passing the flowers. However, everyone feels that they are not the last one.”
"The closure of Qingyun Tower means the bubble has burst."
"It is indeed very possible," Ren Youzi nodded, "Although I don't know whether the owner of Qingyun Tower will open for business tomorrow or what the market situation of paper cotton will be, but its rupture is indeed close at hand."
The first reason is that the arrival of three ships of Indian cotton has directly contributed to the drop in cotton spot prices; the second is that new local cotton will be available in two or three months; the third is that the cotton harvest in the north, especially in the Jianghuai cotton-producing areas, is expected to be poor.
Under the double blow of war and natural disasters, no one would grow cotton.
"It stands to reason that the expected sharp decrease in output in northern cotton-producing areas will further stimulate the rise in futures prices. But everyone knows that most of the cotton that can be delivered by indigenous fabric shops in the Guangzhou market comes from the Jianghuai cotton-producing areas. If the local output decreases,
This means that the flower and cloth shop cannot produce the goods for delivery at all - this is the last straw that breaks the camel's back." Ren Youzi said, "Although everyone among the speculators knows that what they are buying and selling is just a piece of paper,
But after the illusory guarantee of 'future cotton' completely collapsed, market confidence has completely collapsed."
Chu He continued: "The boss of Qingyun Tower has made a lot of money in speculation and trading. It is possible that he suddenly closed down because he realized that the game could no longer continue. But the specifics of this matter still depend on Comrade Wu Mu's investigation.
result."
"so……"
"Yes, it's a bit redundant for you to ask Mu Min to send the police to you. The Guangzhou political security has been paying attention to Qingyun Tower for a long time. He can't escape."
"That's good. What I'm most worried about is causing turmoil in the financial order." Li Shan breathed a sigh of relief, "However, whether it's the police or political security, after all, they can't control the financial order. You think this crisis should