"No matter how you calculate it, our current ship holdings are not enough." After the deduction in the picture, Thorpe said with some disappointment.
Everyone in the exercise command post felt the same way.
On the broad map table, the glass plate covering the large-scale map of the East China Sea region has been filled with lanes and markers of various colors. Various small models are scattered around.
The female orderlies responsible for marking and pushing the models on the glass board have retreated to the back and stood respectfully against the wall. In the past, the appearance, figure and uniform style of the female orderlies have always been topics that the veteran officers were happy to discuss. Now,
But no one turned their attention to them.
Not only were the veteran officers, but there were also representatives from several cooperating departments such as the Department of Colonial Trade and the Foreign Intelligence Service in the exercise room. They also had troubled looks on their faces.
The complexity of Operation Engine far exceeded each of their estimates. Although they had solved several prerequisites: stockpiling supplies, expanding ship capacity, recruiting and training sailors, and even expanding the quarantine camp... However,
In the seemingly simple link of how to transport people back, it was discovered after deducing that there were many problems.
From Dengzhou to Lingao, the straight-line distance on the map is more than 1,500 nautical miles, and from Lingao to Zhapu, the straight-line distance is about 900 nautical miles.
The average sailing speed of a general sailing ship sailing at sea is about 2 to 4 knots, taking into account the factors of current and wind direction. In other words, under ideal conditions, a ship can sail 96 nautical miles in 24 hours, and it takes 15 days to travel from Dengzhou to Lingao.
Can be completed, one voyage can be completed in 30 days.
But in fact, sailboats cannot travel in a straight line on the sea. In order to obtain favorable wind directions and ocean currents, they generally take more tortuous routes. Although no one has experience in sailing a full range of sailboats, according to the Navy's estimates, from Dengzhou to Lingao
A single voyage takes about 20 days. Considering that sailing in the sailing era relied heavily on ocean currents and wind directions, it is not impossible for the round trip time to be doubled. Consider the round trip of a Harmony ship between Dengzhou and Lingao
It will take about 40 days - including short breaks in Lingao and Dengzhou to replenish supplies.
Sailing boats cannot sail all year round. When sailing along the coast of China, you have to consider avoiding the impact of typhoons in summer and autumn. The weather forecast system of the Senate is very weak. Even if weather stations are set up in Dongsha, Xisha and other places, radio cannot predict the weather conditions during navigation.
The level of weather forecasting by ships is limited. Therefore, once it enters the typhoon-prone period, it has to stop sailing. In this way, the annual sailing season does not exceed eight months, and it can go back and forth six times a year.
To transport 100,000 people from Shandong to Hainan, assuming that each person requires 2 tons of displacement, that is, 200,000 tons? If the transportation is to be completed within 8 months, there must be a transportation capacity of nearly 34,000 tons of displacement each time.
Immigration. Counting the navy and sailors, as well as maintaining a certain fleet in Hainan, transfer points along the way and Shandong, it is necessary to have a fleet with a displacement of more than 50,000 tons. In fact, this is not a big deal for the Lingao shipbuilding industry.
It is possible to complete the plan, even if the 100,000 immigrants from Zhejiang are directly transported to Hainan, it will be difficult to complete.
Even if Shi Jiantao can complete the planning institute's order for 24 h800 ships on time, the number of Harmony ships that can be "fully devoted" to engine operations is less than 20,000 tons. Add in other ships that are patchworked together, and the maximum can be added to 30,000 tons.
Ton.
According to this standard, it would take more than three years to transport 100,000 people. This is really a long time.
Although some people have suggested that slave trading ships from Africa to America could carry one person per ton, the mortality rate of up to half on the ship was obviously not what the elders pursued.
If a group of malnourished and frightened refugees are put on a boat that is as crowded as a can and tossed in the storm for more than 20 days, it is difficult to estimate how many people will survive when they reach the top.
Of course, going through all the trouble to get people on board is not preparing to dump their bodies at sea. How to transport people back as healthy as possible is the first consideration of the combat command.
Obviously, it is no longer possible to directly transport people back from Shandong or Zhejiang in one go. Then the only way is to set up stopping points on the way and temporarily "hoard" the population. First transport as many people as possible from Dengzhou, and then
Then send them back batch by batch.
"According to the opinion of our health department, it is best for the refugees to be admitted to a certain degree of purification and quarantine at or near the local area." Zhang Tumu, who came to the meeting on behalf of the health department, said, "Otherwise, there will be too many people and the air will not circulate.
It is easy for various epidemics to break out in the cabin. The ship lacks the ability to effectively deal with it. Not only is the mortality rate during the voyage too high, but the health of the survivors transported to Lingao will also be greatly damaged."
"We must find several transit points." Chen Haiyang said, "It is best to set up a pre-purification camp at or near the local area, just like Guangzhou Station."
What Lingao needs is manpower, especially those who speak northern dialects. But this does not mean that all these manpower must be brought back to Hainan immediately. The first step is actually to send these people out of the Ming Dynasty's control area. Then slowly bring these people
Manpower is transported to Hainan or other locations where needed.
The advantage of setting up a purification camp nearby is that the number of people transported from Dengzhou can be greatly increased each time. If one person per tonnage can be transported during a 20-day sea voyage, and if the voyage time is controlled within 7 days, there is no need to
If the ship is loaded with too much water and food, the number of people carried per tonnage can be increased to 4 or even 5 people.
Of course, this purification camp should not be set up on the mainland. Although the arms and fortification technology possessed by the Crossing Group are enough to defeat any armed force on the mainland, a large camp that can accommodate tens of thousands of people must be built on the mainland to defend it.
The cost of not being attacked is too high. In addition, it is also necessary to consider that the refugees may flee after getting an initial respite because they are unwilling to leave their homes or are afraid of being shipped overseas.
Therefore, this purification camp can only be set up at sea, that is, on an outlying island.
Outlying islands are not only safe and secure - both the Ming army and pirates have very weak capabilities for amphibious operations. The Fubo Army only needs a small number of garrison troops and naval patrol boats to protect the safety of outlying islands. Outlying islands also limit the attempts of refugees.
Possibility of escape.
As for the specific location of the outlying islands, some people suggested that they be in the Miaodao Islands, while others proposed that they be in the Changshan Islands or Liugong Island. Without exception, these islands are close to the Shandong Peninsula and have certain water sources, which can support the garrison of tens of thousands of people in a short period of time.
——Of course, food needs external assistance. Some people have also proposed setting up purification camps in the Lushun area and directly occupying the currently abandoned Jinzhou City. However, these locations are either close to the war zones of Houjin and Ming Dynasty and are easily disturbed by the Ming Navy; or
Too close to the mainland - the ice in the Bohai Sea at that time was much more severe than in the 21st century, and many small islands were connected to the mainland in winter. Therefore, many people proposed to capture Jeju Island as a transit center for Dengzhou.
Jeju Island is only 350 nautical miles away from Dengju, and a single voyage only takes 3 to 4 days. It is not a problem to fit five to six hundred people into a Harmony ship.
North Korea did not have a strong ruling power on Jeju Island at that time, and the population on the island was not large. Jeju Island has an area of 18,000 square kilometers, and even in the 21st century, it has only a population of 550,000. At that time, the island was used as a place of exile and exile by the Lee Dynasty.
Horse Ranch. The population on the island will not exceed 10,000 or 20,000 people at most, and there are many official slaves among them who have no feelings for Lee's Joseon. It is not expected that they will encounter much strong resistance.
The defense force on the island is very weak. The elders are very clear about the military strength of Lee's Korea, and its armament situation is amazing. The Fubo Army did not spend much effort to capture Jeju Island. In addition, the strategy faced by North Korea at that time
The environment and weak military power made it impossible for them to regain Jeju Island once they lost it.
There are warm currents passing through Jeju Island, with a mild climate and abundant precipitation. Not only is the water source most needed for the purification camp not a problem, there are also abundant fish farms nearby to supplement food.
Occupying Jeju Island will not only provide a safe purification camp, but also thousands of official horses from the local North Korean horse farm. For the Senate, which has been short of horses for a long time, its value is no less than the tens of thousands of people transported from Dengzhou.
.
"...In the long run, occupying Jeju Island will give us a good base to intervene in the Liaodong War between the Ming and Qing Dynasties in the east, and to intervene in the KMT in the west." Luo Duo, the general staff who advocated the occupation of Jeju Island, said, "
With the maritime power of the Ming Dynasty, Manchu Qing Dynasty, Li Dynasty, and Tokugawa at that time, none of them launched an attack that threatened Jeju Island. We can ensure the safety of the island with a small number of garrison troops. The refugees transported from Dengzhou do not need to
All will be transported back to Lingao, and some can be placed locally. In the future, the horses we purchase from the mainland can also be kept on the island."
"But what to do with cotton-padded clothes? It's the Little Ice Age now, and the Bohai Sea is almost completely frozen. Without thick cotton-padded clothes, a large number of people would freeze to death. And there's food. Piling more than 100,000 people onto Jeju Island will put a lot of logistical pressure.
" Thorpe said.
"Compared to Dengju and even places further south on the mainland, the temperature in Jeju Island is much higher. In the 20th century, the lowest temperature in winter here was also above 0 degrees - there was a warm current passing through. It was possible to grow it during the Lee Dynasty
Citrus. You must know that citrus cannot be grown north of the Huaihe River. I think the temperature at that time was not too low. An ordinary cotton-padded jacket can handle it. Besides, ships do not transport people from Lingao to Shandong, and the empty tonnage can be used for transportation.
Food, clothing and building materials. After refugees arrive on the island, they can also carry out production and self-rescue activities on the spot. Even extensive planting can obtain a certain amount of food supplement."