The level of workers, or skilled workers, is actually more difficult than that of machinery and equipment. Of course, if there is a certain industrial base like the Soviet Union (the ability of the working class to seize power alone is enough to explain the problem), then only
It is only necessary to introduce some mid-to-high-end talents, and the difficulty will naturally be greatly reduced. And if you can endure loneliness, and the external environment also allows for peaceful development, and you work steadily and do not rush for success, then the demand for ordinary technicians will only gradually increase, and there is no time to wait and see.
nourish.
However, China's industrial base is weak, and the whole country is eager for national rejuvenation. It is inevitable that there is some eagerness for quick success, so this difficulty has become increasingly difficult to overcome. In history, although New China creatively invented "quick-turn" methods such as "technical engineering", it successfully succeeded in rapid development.
Primary industrialization has been achieved, but as a result, the third hurdle of industrialization has become even more difficult to overcome.
Taking advantage of the planned economic system to concentrate national power to carry out large-scale projects and promote the development and progress of the overall industry is certainly a magic weapon for backward countries to accelerate industrialization, but the large urban population that is forcibly "generated" will be
Twenty years or even less later, the supply of industrial labor exceeded demand.
Take the historical New China as an example. The total number of workers in 1957 almost doubled compared to 1952. There was no family planning policy at that time. The five to six million new urban population were almost all of marriageable age. At the same time,
The tradition of high fertility rates in agricultural societies has generally not changed (in fact, the original situation of urban residents will not be much better. Before the concept of eugenics and postnatal care was formed, it was not possible to rely on
It is mandatory that the fertility rate cannot be reduced.) It is very common for a family to have five or six children. Therefore, it is conceivable that when these children become adults twenty years later, even if no farmers move to the city during this period,
China's urban population will also increase at least several times, and the growth rate of the working-age population will only be even greater. You must know that the parents of these young people have not yet reached retirement age.
This means that China will need several times the number of urban jobs in 20 years as in 1957. Taking into account that scientific and technological progress will increase labor productivity (that is, relatively reduce the need for workers), I am afraid that these 20
China's industrial scale needed to expand 10 times in 2006 to barely meet the employment needs of urban youth. However, in the early 2000s, the large-scale Soviet aid was no longer available.
How can it be so easy to increase the scale of industry tenfold (and at least tenfold) in 2020? In fact, as early as the late 1960s, the Chinese government had already begun to worry about the employment problem of urban youth.
Of course, the call has political considerations. In fact, it is also to alleviate the huge employment pressure in the city, but after all, it only treats the symptoms rather than the root cause, and the cost is extremely high.
In order to avoid serious social problems caused by the massive unemployment of the urban population (in fact, it could not be avoided. Therefore, the "hard crackdown" was later introduced), the new Chinese government was forced to restrict the large-scale influx of rural people into cities with household registration, which led to the gap between urban and rural areas.
As the years passed, the division between "city dwellers" and "country dwellers" also tended to solidify, increasing the contradiction between urban and rural residents. At the same time, the government at that time had to tolerate overstaffing in enterprises and institutions, at the expense of labor productivity.
Too many young people are
Provoking quarrels and troubles because there is no job. But even after paying so much price, the employment problem is still difficult to fundamentally solve. Later, it was not until the reform and opening up introduced foreign investment and opened up the international market that this problem was finally basically solved (note
1). Therefore, although the large-scale introduction of foreign capital at all costs in the 1980s failed to "exchange the market for technology" as expected (Note 2), it only solved the employment problem of urban youth, and the correctness of this decision became clear.
It cannot be denied.
Similar problems have appeared to varying degrees in the industrialization process of other countries, but no country is as serious as China. In addition to the extremely high birth rate of the Chinese at that time, it laid the foundation for the rapid completion of primary industrialization in New China.
Qi Gong's "quick-turn method for mechanics" also played a role in fueling the flames, precisely because of the
Only with this trick can China's workforce and urban population expand beyond normal speed in a short period of time, laying the foundation for future unemployment problems. On the contrary, if skilled workers are trained step by step at the beginning, then the urban population will
The increase will be relatively gentle, and the corresponding unemployment problem will naturally be much easier to solve.
But even though he knew this, Hu Weidong, who was eager for China to become stronger quickly, was not willing to sacrifice development speed for the sake of stability. Instead, he kept thinking about ways to solve the unemployment problem in the future. Hu Weidong's initial idea was to use the international market to tide over this crisis.
, as long as it is not hostile to the two superpowers, the United States and the Soviet Union, as it was historically, making it difficult to export on a large scale, and at the same time it has highly competitive export products in the world, his idea may not be unsuccessful. However,
After making the decision to train a large number of Japanese prisoners of war, Hu Weidong suddenly realized that there seemed to be a more clever way. Bringing in a large number of foreign workers now could solve the current shortage of skilled workers in the country, and when the employment pressure increases in the future,
Wouldn't it free up jobs by simply laying off those foreign workers who are not urgently needed? Since they are foreigners, the Chinese government does not have to be responsible for their jobs, as long as the contracts are not signed for too long in advance.
Note 1: In fact, the more important reason is that under the planned economy, there is a "big government". All economic activities (at least in cities) are managed by the government. Therefore, urban youths who cannot find a job can go to the government (even if the job is too hard).
, you can make unreasonable requests such as needing to change one, as long as there are enough people and it does not violate the criminal law, even if it is a small rogue, the government at the time can't do anything), so a little bit
Unemployment will have a great social impact. Under the market economy, it is a "small government", and the obligations it needs to bear are relatively small. As long as the number of unemployed people does not reach a certain level, the government only needs to wait for the market to slowly digest it.
That’s fine, and the unemployed have to actively find ways to find jobs to support themselves in order to make a living, and they no longer dare to wait for the government to lend a helping hand. Therefore, it is naturally much easier to “solve” the unemployment problem.
Note 2: A lot of technology was introduced, but most of it was cooperation at the national level. It was the reward for China and the United States to join forces to fight against the Soviet Union. It can be obtained even if it is not open to the outside world. However, the introduction of foreign capital itself has almost nothing.
Valuable technology, because foreign capital builds basically low-tech sweatshops (To be continued.)^-^Kanshu.com (www.) No bombs! Read^-^