Since the question of whether to conduct the Northern Expedition involves the national destiny of the Ming Empire, the Empire's Supreme Military and Political Conference was held for four days. Every day was a fierce debate. On the first day, everyone was relatively restrained, but on the second day, the atmosphere became heated and there were quarrels and quarrels. , the smell of gunpowder was already very strong. If Zhu Yourong and Shen Rongxuan hadn't "taken the fight" again, they would have been fighting in circles around the table again, playing all the martial arts.
On the first and second days, despite the fierce debate, Shen Rongxuan consciously did not participate in the speech. He just balanced the left and right and "maintained the order of the scene" like a referee. On the third day, Shen Rongxuan began to express some opinions in a low-key manner. , revealed a little bit about his tendency to support the Northern Expedition. Although he kept a low profile, his identity was here, so he quickly became an opinion leader at the meeting. Many ministers who were originally very cautious in their speeches or were vacillating immediately voted. It's over to his side.
Despite this, a considerable number of ministers still firmly opposed the Northern Expedition. They accounted for about two-fifths of the cabinet ministers and about one-third of all participants. However, although they still opposed fiercely, because Xiang Xiaoqiang's As for the sentence "The people of the north are not counted as the people of the Ming Dynasty", no one is arguing that "the happiness of the people is higher than the unity of the country". Because the truth is obvious: regardless of ethics, law, history, or emotions, the people of the enemy-occupied areas They all undoubtedly belong to the people of the Ming Dynasty. Since the vast majority of the people of the Ming Dynasty are still under the iron heel of the Manchu Qing Dynasty and are in dire straits, then if the people want to be happy, the country must be unified... The "Never Northern Expedition Sect" has just emerged. Xiang Xiaoqiang slapped his head off with a frying pan.
After the first three days of arguments, examples, data analysis, and a comprehensive comparison of the enemy's and ours' military, economy, resources, production capabilities, war potential, and people's morale, we finally came to a conclusion that convinced both parties: In the new Ming-Qing war, the probability of Ming's victory should be no less than 70%. This "win" means that Ming can reach the more conservative war termination line: the Yellow River-Qinling line.
This termination line will be like the current line between the Yangtze River and the Hengduan Mountains, becoming a barrier that can be attacked when advancing and defended when retreating. If the war situation is still good by then, we can cross this line and continue to advance northward to strive for recovery. The entire territory of China. If the war situation becomes tense by then, we can retreat on this line and fully operate this new line of defense to create a favorable strategic situation for the future recovery of the entire territory of China.
Of course, since we can reach this point, the territory, population, resources, industrial centers, strategic depth, and coastline of the Northern Qing Dynasty will be greatly reduced. Even if we are unable to completely pacify the Qing Dynasty now, we will regain the whole country in the near future. , which is also a relatively realistic thing.
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However, the reason why the opposition ministers so easily agreed that "the Northern Expedition is possible to win" is because they put forward a more lethal argument - the Japanese threat.
This means: Yes, if we fight Beiqing alone, we may win. But don't forget that there is Japan.
Everyone knows that Japan is currently the fastest-growing and most ambitious country in East Asia. Moreover, it has always been eager to acquire a piece of mainland territory. If Japan took the opportunity to invade during the most difficult times of the Ming and Qing Dynasties, how would the fishermen benefit? What to do? If Japan invades from the Korean Peninsula, attacks from north to south, and attacks the Northern Qing Dynasty first, then the Ming Dynasty will still have more room for maneuver. If Japan chooses to land from Fujian or Zhejiang, and first stabs the Ming Dynasty in the back, Then the Ming Dynasty will be attacked from both sides, and it will be extremely dangerous.
To be honest, this is what the Northern Expeditionists such as Xiang Xiaoqiang and General Yigan are most worried about. However, the so-called "most worried" is not so worried that they think the Northern Expedition cannot be possible. It just means that in the entire war to unify China, Japan is more dangerous than the Manchu Qing Dynasty.
The dangers themselves are more noteworthy.
Before the meeting, Xiang Xiaoqiang and the military generals also expected that a minister would definitely raise the Japanese issue, so they made preparations in advance. However, it was very risky to present this view to the highest decision-making level of the entire empire at the meeting.
In other words, they have to shoulder a lot of responsibility, because this is equivalent to issuing a military order. The opposition pointed out that Japan is too dangerous, so the Northern Expedition cannot be carried out. The Northern Expeditionists patted their chests and said that although Japan is dangerous, we have ways to overcome it and will not let the Ming Dynasty be defeated.
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Even so, war is unpredictable after all. If the Ming Dynasty is really defeated because of Japan's participation in the war, or even if it is not defeated, it suffers a big loss, then who will bear this responsibility?
There is no doubt that it must be the person who patted the chest at the original meeting to take the blame.
Therefore, Xiang Xiaoqiang tried his best to bear the risk by himself and make the speech on the possible Japanese invasion at the meeting. Because in the final analysis, he was the original proposer of the Northern Expedition to the Manchu Qing Dynasty. However, Chief of General Staff Zhang Zhaoxian disagreed.
, and pressed Xiang Xiaoqiang. He had to make this responsibility statement himself. Because in his opinion, he was the supreme commander of the imperial army, so this responsibility related to the fate of the country naturally had to be borne by himself.
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"That's right," Zhang Zhaoxian said to him with a smile at that time, "don't argue with me about this. I'm already very old and will retire soon. Don't talk about taking some responsibility, even if I am dismissed and convicted immediately,
I have nothing to be afraid of. But after all, you are still young and have a bright future. You are also a rare talent in our Ming Dynasty. When you are as old as me, you can compete with the young people again. Haha."
Xiang Xiaoqiang was originally willing to risk his life. Because he knew that he would be in this world for at most five years, he had much less scruples. But old Marshal Zhang Zhaoxian really moved him this time. He stood solemnly and bowed deeply to the ground.
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At the highest military and political meeting of the empire, Zhang Zhaoxian spoke:
"Several cabinet ministers have suggested that Japan might take the opportunity to invade. Zhaoxian is a soldier, and his political judgment is not as good as that of ministers. Ministers are all responsible politicians. Since someone has raised it, it must have been through mature thinking.
So I will first assume that: Politically, Japan has the possibility of taking the opportunity to invade. Next, I will talk about my own views from the military perspective, and invite colleagues in the military circles here to discuss it together."
The ministers all understood Zhang Zhaoxian's words. What he meant was: You said Japan might invade. Well, this is a political category. I recognize that you are experts in politics and I will not argue with you. But then there are military issues.
On political issues, I admit that you are experts and will not argue with you. But on military issues, you must also admit that I am an expert and do not argue with me. Even if we argue, I will only accept arguments from "colleagues in the military community."
In fact, all "military colleagues" were Northern Expeditionists.
Several ministers who opposed the Northern Expedition looked at each other and couldn't say anything. So they could only continue to listen.
Zhang Zhaoxian continued:
"Since Japan may invade, the first issue is the route, that is, where to invade from. There are two possibilities: First, invade from the north. Second, invade from the south. After the discussion just now, everyone here, regardless of military or political affairs, has reached a consensus.
:That is, if Japan invades from the north, it will bring less danger. But if it invades from the south, it means inserting a knife in the back of our Ming Dynasty, and the danger will be much greater.
"Everyone also agrees that if it can be proven that Japan will invade from the south, then we are fighting two enemies at the same time, fighting on two fronts. In that case, we would rather give up the Northern Expedition. On the contrary, if Japan invades from the north, then we can still
Consider the Northern Expedition. Because of the single-line operation, our offensive direction, strategic layout, etc. will not change much. We are still fighting an enemy. It is just that this enemy has become stronger. Whether we are advancing or retreating, we
There's a lot of room for that.
"From a military point of view, I think that if Japan wants to invade, 'if' - if it wants to invade, then the possibility of attacking from the south is very small, but it is very likely that it will attack from the north. Why? Because there are forces in the north
Japan's only springboard on the East Asian continent: the Korean Peninsula. Japan has been operating on the Korean Peninsula for many years, and it is an extremely stable strategic rear.
"The Korean peninsula is very close to the Japanese mainland. Whether it is troop reinforcements or logistics, transportation is very convenient. Japan's several traditional naval bases, such as Yokosuka, Sasebo, Kure Port, Nagasaki, etc., as well as the entire Seto Inland Sea, are just a short distance away.
North Korea is very close, separated only by the Tsushima Strait. Once a ship needs repairs, it can sail back to its home base for docking repairs in a short time. This is crucial for overseas wars.
"In other words, Japan's invasion from the Korean Peninsula and Liaodong is the option with the highest success rate, the least risk, and the most beneficial option. Although attacking from the north poses less direct threat to our Ming Dynasty, from Japan's perspective,
After all, its purpose is not to destroy the Ming Dynasty, but to destroy the Ming Dynasty in the East.
Obtain a territory on the Asian continent to relieve domestic land and resource pressure. Then the most ideal is the northern part of the East Asian continent. It is close to Japan and can be connected to the existing Korean Peninsula, so it can be easily
Incorporation into the territory of the 'Empire of Japan'. This is crucial.
"On the other hand, even assuming that Japan attacks in the south, and assuming that it really gets a piece of land, it is also an 'enclave' for Japan. 'Enclave' means that it is too far away from the mainland to continue to occupy and
Management. Japan invaded for land and resources. And the land outside Liaodong Pass
It is undoubtedly much wider than Jiangnan, and its natural resources are much richer than Jiangnan. Most of our Fujian and Zhejiang are mountainous, the arable plains are very narrow, and the natural resources are far less than those in Liaodong. Apart from oil, Liaodong has almost all the resources that Japan needs.
.The most important thing is that Liaodong is much easier to fight than Jiangnan.
"Why do you say that? First of all, attacking from the north is a traditional land attack. Attacking from the south requires a large-scale amphibious landing battle. Which is more difficult or easier is clear at a glance. In our country, the Ming Navy is still very powerful, and every port has a shore
In the case of anti-artillery, the success rate of such a landing is extremely low. Secondly, our Ming Dynasty's coast consists of three parts: Zhejiang, Fujian, and Guangdong. No matter which section the Japanese army chooses to land, it will be extremely difficult.
"Zhejiang is the closest to the Japanese mainland. If we choose to land here, it will undoubtedly be the most convenient in terms of logistics transportation and troop reinforcements. But in the Zhoushan Islands off the coast of Zhejiang, there is our main fleet. We have 6 battleships, 1 battlecruiser, 4
aircraft carriers are all here. Although the overall strength of Japan's navy is stronger than ours, it is only slightly stronger.
, did not form an overwhelming advantage. They have 4 more battleships than us, and the number of aircraft carriers is equal to ours. Moreover, we originally had two battlecruisers, and after selling one to Germany, we still have one more. This modernized and modified Zhurong
The number of cruisers is at least as good as most of the battleships. Japan has 21 cruisers and we have 20, which is basically the same.
"Japan's total fleet strength does not have an overwhelming advantage over us. In addition, we are fighting at home. They have sailed hundreds of nautical miles to fight. Logistics, troop transport, air cover, etc. are all at a disadvantage. The only advantage they have is not
has been offset. And whether we have Zhoushan Islands or Zhejiang
Along the coast, there are airports, forts, torpedo boat bases, and submarine bases everywhere, which together create a hornet's nest. If the Japanese fleet invades, in addition to having to fight our fleet in a decisive battle, it must also be prepared to be beaten in many directions. Therefore, unless the Japanese army is irrational,
Otherwise it would be impossible to attack in Zhejiang.
"If the Japanese army chooses Fujian or Guangdong to land, it will be equally difficult. First of all, the voyage to Guangdong is longer, almost on the verge of the South China Sea, and nearly 2,000 kilometers away from the Japanese mainland. Troop transportation and logistical supplies will be more difficult. What is more fatal to the Japanese army is that this long
The supply line has to pass through Zhejiang and Fujian. Our navy has a large number of
Bases and airports. We also have our military ports on the north and south sides of Taiwan Island, Kaohsiung and Keelung. Even if we don’t have a decisive battle with the main force of the Japanese fleet, we can easily defeat them by just arranging a few more patrols on this long route.
Cut off the Japanese supply line. Therefore, unless the Japanese army is irrational, it is impossible to attack in Guangdong.
"What's left is Fujian. First of all, for the Japanese army, Fujian has the double shortcomings of Zhejiang and Guangdong: the supply line is much farther than Zhejiang, and it is much closer to the main force of the Ming fleet than Guangdong. Secondly, Fujian has all the disadvantages of Zhejiang and Guangdong.
It’s a mountain, with so many mountains and ridges, not a single
Even if the Japanese army successfully landed in Fujian, it would be difficult to deploy the army in a short period of time, and even more difficult to attack inland in a short period of time. And Fujian is the province with the largest number of troops stationed along the coast of the Ming Dynasty. We always put part of the army in
This is what we do here.
"Our Fujian Southern Army is brave, hard-working, and particularly good at fighting in the local subtropical mountain forest environment. During the Ming-Dutch War, the Fujian Army participated in the battle on Java Island in Southeast Asia and performed well. If the Japanese army successfully landed,
They haven't been shipped ashore yet
When multiple troops have not been deployed, they will face a fierce attack by superior forces who are familiar with the local environment. And the Japanese army's maritime logistics supply line is exposed to the attack of the Zhejiang East China Sea Fleet. Therefore, unless the Japanese army is irrational, it will
It is impossible to attack in Fujian.
"I saw that some adults were already laughing. Yes, I said three times, 'Unless the Japanese army is irrational, they will not attack somewhere.' In fact, I have included the entire Ming Dynasty coastal area. In other words, unless the Japanese army is irrational,
, otherwise they will not attack in the south. So if they attack, where will they attack? The only possibility is - the north! Push from the Korean Peninsula through Liaodong to the pass. For Japan, if it plans to invade,
This is the only sensible approach.
"Japan should understand that with its strength, even if it is a sudden attack from behind, there is no possibility of eating Ming Dynasty in one bite. Ming Dynasty may lose the battle, lose its land, and even withdraw into the southwest rear area. But in Japan's heart
It is clear that as long as it cannot completely eliminate the Ming Dynasty, it will
The 'enclave' is not itss. The Ming Dynasty will definitely try its best to attack westward. Even if Japan joins forces with the Manchu and Qing Dynasties to attack the Ming Dynasty, because the Ming Dynasty's Yangtze River defense line, especially the western mountain defense line, is insurmountable, the Qing army can only
Like the Japanese army, they invaded from the east to the south. Then the Ming Dynasty still only fought on a single line.
"What Japan wants is to get a piece of mainland territory, not to fall into a long-term war. So no matter from any aspect, it will invade from behind the Manchu Qing Dynasty, objectively forming a pincer attack with the Ming Dynasty, and quickly solve the Manchu Qing Dynasty.
Then negotiate with Ming Dynasty to strive for an understanding between the two parties and legally retain the land. As for how to choose when the time comes, the initiative still lies with us. No matter what, when the time comes, my strategic posture of Ming Dynasty will be more careful than now to stick to the Yangtze River defense line.
, is much more beneficial.
"Your Majesty, gentlemen, regarding the possibility of the Japanese army invading the East Asian continent, the above is the analysis jointly made by myself, three of our colleagues on the General Staff, and the Commander of the People's Guard. The conclusion is that the Japanese army may seize the opportunity to invade the East Asian continent.
It's possible, but it's basically impossible to attack our Ming Dynasty. After we reach the termination line of the Northern Expedition, we will have a lot of room for maneuver with Japan, both military and diplomatic. Therefore, what lies in front of our Ming Empire is still a very promising one.
prospects for the Northern Expedition.
"I'll first ask all the cabinet ministers to discuss it. I also respectfully ask your Majesty to make a decision. I'm done."
The old marshal had a solemn expression. He bowed to Zhu Yourong first, then bowed to the ministers around him, and leaned back in his chair.