The outbreak of the financial crisis was not actually what outsiders saw. It was caused by the sudden collapse of Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch, which triggered dominoes.
In fact, there have been signs for a long time, but many people cannot see what is hidden behind it.
What started first was actually not the subprime mortgage crisis that broke out at the beginning of last year. It was already the first stage of the financial crisis.
The first sign is actually the boom in residential real estate in the United States.
Why is real estate in the United States so popular?
Their population is only over 300 million, less than a fraction of China's population, but their land area is about the same as China's. Moreover, they are not like Australia, which is so pitiful that it can only survive in corners and sea areas. Their territory is larger than China's.
China is even more suitable for farming and living!
The boom and decline of real estate are all due to the imbalance between supply and demand.
When there are more people who need to buy houses but there is only a little supply, then real estate will flourish and housing will be expensive. An example of this is Hong Kong.
When the supply of land is extremely large, but the number of people in need of housing is very small, then real estate must be in decline.
As for real estate in the United States, it’s okay to say that megacities such as New York and Los Angeles are booming, but the real estate market in all parts of the United States is booming, which is very abnormal.——You can’t even see it in small cities.
Why are apartments and villas so expensive? Why are housing prices so rising?
This can basically be regarded as a financial bubble, a huge bubble.
Since it is a bubble, it will burst one day and develop into the most crazy time. Basically, this is when the bubble bursts.
It is precisely because U.S. real estate has been booming for ten years that this is the most terrifying thing.
If it is popular for two or three years, then declines once, and then becomes popular again and declines again, then there is no big problem.
When the bubble gets bigger and bigger, and finally bursts, the huge power cannot be endured by ordinary people, and neither can the United States.
Therefore, the financial crisis in 2008 was so violent. To put it bluntly, it was all gathered bit by bit in the past.
Now in August 2008, it is not far away from the bomb explosion in Xiao Qi's memory, and more signs have emerged.
On the first day of August, Germany's largest bank, Deutsche Bank, announced that it would acquire Deutsche Commerzbank, which was in the midst of a massive subprime debt crisis, for 13.3 billion euros.
As the third largest commercial bank in Germany, Deutsche Commerzbank definitely has a market capitalization of only 13.3 billion euros.
But the problem is that because of the huge amount of subprime debt financial products involved, Wall Street, Xiao Qi and others severely deceived Deutsche Bank. After holding on for more than a year, Deutsche Commerzbank's losses have exceeded 70 billion euros.
, there are more than 30 billion on the surface.
Such a huge loss is simply not something a commercial bank can bear.
Banks are very rich, but most of them belong to their customers. Countless small, medium and large customers store and invest their money in the bank, which is how the bank has a huge amount of funds. In fact, they earn the capital themselves.
, not a lot.
So if we don’t save Deutsche Bank, it will collapse completely!
No country's financial system can allow its country's large commercial banks to collapse, even if they are not from China and these banks are not state-owned banks.
Because behind these commercial banks are involved the interests of hundreds of thousands, millions or even tens of millions of ordinary people. These people are the foundation of the country. Once their fundamental interests are damaged, I dare not say that the country is destroyed.
But at least the country's finances were completely ruined.
Now is a time of peace. Finance represents a country’s strength to a large extent. If one of the most important strengths of a country is gone, how can it still have a stable regime and a stable environment?
Therefore, on this principled issue, there can be no chaos at all, and such large banks cannot be allowed to fail. - Wasn’t the large amount of banknotes printed by the Federal Reserve just given to American banks and investment banks? Let the whole world
It doesn't matter if you scold them, because they know what face is and what lizi is.
Now Deutsche Bank is doing ahead of schedule what the Fed will do later.
It's just that the Germans are more shameless than the Americans, so they use this method to buy help to resolve the crisis.
Once Deutsche Bank is acquired, Deutsche Bank will not only do no good by buying this bank, but will also burden it with tens of billions of euros of debt. The phrase "asking for trouble" is not a derogatory term used here.
.
Germany is the largest economy in Europe and one of the main supporters of the European Union.
Even their third largest commercial bank cannot sustain it, let alone commercial banks in other small and medium-sized countries. Since July, it has been revealed that more than 6 large and small banks have fallen into losses due to subprime debt.
Less is still a huge loss.
The United States can still hide it for the time being, but the European Union can no longer hide it. For a while, central banks in many countries and the European Central Bank have begun various rescue measures.
In fact, this is not the first time they have encountered this kind of thing in the past two years. From 2007 to now, more than 20 large and small banks have been in crisis, and several commercial banks in small countries have simply closed down.
So everyone thinks that this is just a normal phenomenon, and once the difficulty is over, it will probably be fine.
At the same time, the banking and financial industry in Asia is actually in the same chaos.
Just two days after Deutsche Bank announced the acquisition of Deutsche Commerzbank, Japan's Mitsubishi Financial Group announced the acquisition of Sakura Tobu Bank, which was in huge losses. The Bank of Japan announced an emergency capital injection of 400 billion yen to Musashi Commercial Bank, which announced that it had entered the regeneration process.
Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation, the second largest commercial bank, announced that it lost more than 600 billion yen in the first half of this year, a record high in fifty years.
All right.
Of course, the main losses of these three Japanese banks were in financial derivatives on Wall Street.
Among these financial derivatives, the one that deceives them the most is the subordinated bonds. They were originally thought to be high-interest and value-preserving financial products, but their gentle veil has been torn off. This is really unimaginable for all Japanese banks.
The one that suffered the most was naturally the Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation that Xiao Qi cheated the most. What they announced was only a part of the losses, and a small part of them made overdue or future losses through various accounting methods. Finally, there was no loss.
To a shocking extent.
But even so, Xiao Qi's earnings from Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation alone exceeded US$3 billion, second only to Deutsche Commerzbank, and there will be more in the future.
As for Sakura Tobu Bank and Musashi Commercial Bank, these two unlucky banks, which had no share in them, took the initiative to ask for the purchase of subordinated bonds. It is reasonable for them to lose so much.
Unfortunately, the Japanese are still more cautious and do not buy as much as the Germans. And Sumitomo Mitsui is the second largest commercial bank in Japan, so the Japanese are even less likely to let it collapse.
Otherwise, if Xiao Qi brought down Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation, wouldn't it be a great accomplishment?
Through financial means, the Japanese have invested heavily in China and suppressed the development of Chinese enterprises. If they can cut off one of their hands, it will be very beneficial to our own industrial and commercial development.
Good things.
But there's no rush.
The financial crisis will continue for many years. Moreover, Japan, the most unlucky country, will have a super tsunami and nuclear leakage crisis in 2011, which is enough to weaken the Japanese economic strength again and again!
Speaking of Japan, I have to mention Japan Airlines Co., Ltd., which Xiao Qi thought of on his way to the United States.
Japan Airlines Co., Ltd. is in dire straits right now.
They have been implementing a policy of storing oil prices eight months in advance. They have invested more than 30 billion U.S. dollars in oil futures. Somehow, in the days before July 11, they purchased more than 3 billion U.S. dollars in large sums.
Oil futures, when the U.S. federal court took action, my eyes were immediately stunned.
The price of oil has fallen at the speed of a waterfall, falling by 20% in half a month. Now, in early August, it is even lower than in the previous life.
It means that in just one month alone, Japan Airlines has lost 9 billion US dollars, and it almost lost its pants!
Seeing such a huge loss in oil prices, Japan Airlines was unable to do anything in the stock market. After plummeting for five consecutive trading days, it has now experienced another 12 trading days of plummeting. The market value has shrunk and evaporated by 28%, and the entire company has almost collapsed.
.
Compared with them, Japan's second largest airline, All Nippon Airways, can only be said to be in a slightly better situation. However, they also implement a 6-month oil price storage policy and have now lost more than 4 billion US dollars. The annual loss is expected to exceed 10 billion US dollars.
!
Japan, just these two large airlines, suddenly fell from the top ten in Asia to almost on the verge of collapse, catching everyone off guard.
As the only insider, Xiao Qi just watched with cold eyes.
Do you think now is the most difficult period for you?
Dream on!
Now is just the beginning!
Wait until the end of the year, when the price of oil plummets to around 45 US dollars, will you know what it means to cry without tears!
No matter how stubborn you Japanese people are, it will be absolutely unsustainable in this debilitating atmosphere.
When that time comes, it’s time to slowly start cutting the meat!
Fairy Air should take this opportunity to usher in a big take-off! (To be continued)